By Raghuram Rajan
There are many
arguments against government paternalism: apart from limiting individual choice
(for example, the choice to remain uninsured in the current health-care debate
in the United States) and preventing individuals from learning, history
suggests time and again that the conventional wisdom prevalent in society is
wrong. And, since governments typically try to enforce the conventional wisdom,
the consequences could be disastrous, because they are magnified by the state’s
coordinating – and coercive – power.
A clear example is financial regulation, which in many ways is a form of paternalism. In the US, the low risk assigned to senior tranches of mortgage-backed securities made them attractive instruments for banks to hold, given the relatively high return they offered. But they proved far from safe, despite the prior conventional wisdom. And, because the regulator had pronounced them safe, far too many banks overloaded on them, rendering them even more risky when the banks tried to sell them at the same time.
Other
examples of the danger of the coordinating power of government paternalism
abound. As I drive to downtown Chicago, I pass a series of high-rise housing
projects, meant in their time to be the miracle cure for homelessness, poverty,
unemployment, and crime. Today, they are seen as the best way to concentrate
and perpetuate many of those ills.
Not
only were the housing projects kept a safe distance from areas that had good
jobs, but, with few residents experiencing stable families and livelihoods,
there were not enough local examples of success to guide young people. As a
result, many went astray.
The
fashion today is to integrate poor households into flourishing communities. No
doubt we will discover some unintended consequences in the future, and the
power of government coordination will ensure that those consequences are
widespread.
But
some amount of paternalism is necessary in civilized societies. Social security
is a paternalistic form of forced savings for old age, preventing individuals
from consuming and saving as they please. It exists, in part, because
individuals know that civilized societies will never stand by and watch the
elderly starve. So individuals are forced to save in order to prevent them from
gaming the system – not saving when young, knowing that they will be assured a
minimum level of support by a humane society when old. Similarly, the mandated
purchase of insurance in the Obama administration’s health-care bill is an
attempt to prevent the young and the healthy from remaining uninsured and
turning to the government for support only when they discover that they need
it.
So, if
paternalism has benefits as well as costs, how do we get the former without the
latter? My colleague, Richard Thaler, along with Cass Sunstein, who currently
serves in the Obama administration, wrote a best-selling book, Nudge, in which they suggest a way to reduce
our uneasiness with paternalism. Essentially, by exploiting behavioral quirks,
they would nudge people into making decisions that are good for them, even
while individuals have complete freedom to change their mind. So libertarian
paternalism, in their view, eliminates one of the main objections
to paternalism – that it constrains individual choice.
For
example, in deciding how their pension savings will be allocated, most people
simply choose the default option in their employer-offered plan. Often, the
default option is unsuitable for most individuals – for instance, it typically
allocates all savings to low-return money-market funds. Sunstein and Thaler
would have the employer choose a default option that works for most people,
such as 60% in equities, 30% in bonds, and 10% in money-market funds.
That is
the paternalistic part. The libertarian part is that the employee has the right
to opt out of the default option. Because people rarely move away from the
default option, the employer’s paternalistic choice prevails, and we get
libertarian paternalism. What is not to like?
The
problem is that the semblance of choice in libertarian paternalism is an
illusion. Choice remains unexercised, because individuals do not consciously
think through their decision. If their choices can be directed, is this not
paternalism plain and simple, rendered more sinister because individuals are
unaware that they are being nudged, and cannot raise their guard?
One
response is to point out that most plans already have a default option that
determines savings allocations. Sunstein and Thaler merely say that the default
option should be set in a way that is good for people, and clearly they have an
idea of what is good.
This,
then, is the nub of the problem. In choosing the default option, the government
or the employer nudges all employees into prevailing fads such as “buy equity
for the long run.” This, they believe, is better than the current typical
default option of putting individuals’ money into money-market funds. But it
may be worse: coordinating everyone into risky asset investments may be more
dangerous than coordinating them into boring investments like money-market
funds.
Could
there be a better alternative? What if there were no default option, and individuals were
sent repeated, and increasingly urgent, reminders to choose an allocation if
they did not choose one already. The conventional wisdom could be offered as a
recommendation, along with explanations of why it makes sense, but it would not
be the default. This would force people to exercise choice. Some people would
differ from the conventional wisdom, benefiting the system by introducing some
variety and resilience.
More
generally, the flaw in some forms of libertarian paternalism is that the free
choice that it appears to offer leaves the paternalism largely unconstrained.
Would it not be far better to force conscious choice in order to limit the consequences
of paternalistic mistakes?
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