"Mr. Tsipras' bluff will be called"

After that, Athens could literally be sitting in the dark

           The Germans are not prepared to pay for anyone's 'vacation from reality'

German news magazine 'Der Spiegel' occasionally puts together an overview of  voices from the German press to give readers the overall flavor of editorial opinion in Germany when important events occur.

It has just done so again after the Greek election and the Kabuki theater that followed in their wake.  The entire article is well worth reading, and we bring a pertinent excerpt below, from an editorial that appeared in the conservative daily newspaper 'Die Welt'.

“The election results are also a defeat for Germany. The Greeks and the French have rejected what they see as a German austerity and reform diktat. That is certainly unfair, given the massive obligations and risks that Germany took on to save the EU's problem countries from bankruptcy. And Germany's capability is being greatly overestimated by those who say Berlin should shell out even more money for things such as growth programs. But in the end, the results are also proof that Europe doesn't work.

Every country still only debates within its own national borders, because there is no European public sphere. Germany's joint liability for the precarious finances of the countries in crisis remains a one-way street because the Germans can't manage to adequately assert their positions, interests or the significant efforts they've made."

"And in the end the parties that win in Greece are the radical ones that want to keep the euro, but don't want to fulfill the obligations agreed upon in return for the financial aid — an untenable position. … The German chancellor must master a difficult balancing act in the coming weeks. The Greeks will require hard resolve, while the French will require flexible diplomacy.

Whoever ends up governing Athens, it must be made unmistakably clear to the new leaders that they're welcome to venture out on their own, but if they want to take advantage of the financial help from the donor countries and remain within the euro zone, then they must adhere to the stipulations already laid out. The German citizens are certainly not prepared to finance Greece's vacation from reality."

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has written an article about the 'European insurrection' where he notes (if you read his article, kindly ignored the usual uninformed tirade about the 'gold standard errors' of the 1930's):

“The immediate fate of Greece – and the euro – is in the hands of a boyish motorcycle Marxist. Syriza leader deal Alexis Tsipras has vowed to tear up the hated Memorandum, as the EU-IMF "troika" loan package is known.

He showed no sign of backing off as he met his country's president and began talks on the formation of an implausible Left front. "The popular verdict clearly renders the bailout null and void," he said.

To those who warn that such defiance means an unstoppable lurch towards full default, a banking crash and EMU expulsion, he retorts that Greece has the "ultimate weapon". It can bring down the whole European system if EU leaders refuse to soften the terms.

This bluff may be called. "Patience among the creditor countries is running out," said Blanka Kolenikova from IHS Global Insight. Germany's media says finance minister Wolfgang Schauble is itching to force Greece out of the euro as a salutary example, sure that Europe is strong enough to withstand the shock. This, in turn, is an illusion waiting to be punctured.

Arnaud Mares from Morgan Stanley said a Greek exit would set off "massive deposit flight" from all the vulnerable EMU states. "It could unravel the single currency altogether."

It is too early to tell if a Greek exit would really lead to deposit flight from the  entire periphery. That may actually not happen, as Ireland and Portugal are sticking to their commitments and markets have recently given them the benefit of doubt. On the other hand, it probably greatly depends on how the situation in Spain evolves from here.

One thing is however clear: Mr. Tsipras' bluff will be called. It is precisely as stated in the editorial in 'Die Welt': the Germans are not prepared to pay for anyone's 'vacation from reality'. The editorial is an excellent reflection of  the state of the social mood in Germany more broadly and with regards to the Greek crisis in particular. 

If a new Greek government tries to wriggle out from the agreement with the 'troika' lenders, both the IMF and Germany will simply say no and the money will stop flowing. After that, Athens could literally be sitting in the dark.