One of the earliest fears about tax-favored savings
accounts like IRAs and 401(k) plans was that when this pool of savings grew
large enough Congress would not be able to resist tapping it to help
solve the nation’s debt problems. We’re about to find out if those
fears—persistent for decades—have been justified.
Everything including the sacred mortgage deduction is
on the table as lawmakers wrestle with the fiscal cliff, a year-end avalanche of scheduled spending cuts and
tax increases. With a combined $10 trillion sitting in IRAs and 401(k) plans,
retirement accounts make a juicy target. Some of this money has never been
taxed, and under current law never will be.
To maintain this savings incentive the government
“spends” $100 billion a year in the form of tax breaks to those who stash money
in these kinds of accounts. Now, a new study suggests this tax incentive does little to
change saving behavior. Some lawmakers, no doubt, are wondering: Why keep an
expensive tax incentive that does not incent?
The study, reported in The New York Times, comes from
Raj Chetty and John N. Friedman of Harvard, Soren Leth-Petersen and Tore Olsen of the University
of Copenhagen, and Torben Heien Nielsen of the Danish National Center for
Social Research. It looked at data from Denmark, where the pension system is
similar to that in the U.S., and found that every dollar that government spent
on tax breaks increased total savings by about one penny.