Friday, November 2, 2012

Greek, European Officials Dispute Budget Reprieve

No End In Sight
By ALKMAN GRANITSAS And STELIOS BOURAS
Greece said Wednesday that a loan agreement it is negotiating with its creditors would give the country an additional two years to meet its budget targets in exchange for deep budget cuts and other measures.
Senior euro-zone officials, however, said no deal has been reached and no extension has been granted because a report by representatives of the country's creditors on Greece's progress on repairing its economy wasn't ready. Greece's creditors, the euro zone and the International Monetary Fund, are still at odds over how to come up with as much as €20 billion ($26 billion) necessary to finance the delay.
But a draft of the loan agreement indicated Greece would be given extra time. Under the terms of that draft, being negotiated by the Greek government and a delegation of inspectors from the so-called troika—the European Commission, the IMF and the European Central Bank—Greece would have until the end of 2016 to meet a targeted budget surplus of 4.5%, before taking into account interest payments on the national debt
Currently, Greece has until the end of 2014 to meet that target.
The document says the extension would be prompted by a much deeper-than-expected recession that has crushed the Greek economy and sent unemployment and business bankruptcies soaring to record levels. The extension hasn't been approved by Greece's creditors from fellow euro-zone countries and the IMF,
In a string of comments, the European Central Bank and German government officials stressed that no agreement had been reached and that any decision on Greece's bailout would be taken after the troika's inspectors had finalized their report.
"There is no new information," German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble told a news conference, when asked if he could confirm that an extension of the deadline had been granted. "I cannot confirm that."
ECB President Mario Draghi told German lawmakers there was no recommendation yet from the troika committee of experts about the status of Greece's economic reform.
Mr. Draghi and Mr. Schäuble joined other German and ECB officials who earlier denied related reports. German government spokesman Steffen Seibert said earlier Wednesday that the government sees no basis for a debate on the extension.
Addressing the Greek Parliament on Wednesday, Finance Minister Yannis Stournaras said negotiations on a €13.5 billion package of austerity measures had taken into account a two-year extension of the program. Without the extra time, Greece would have to take austerity measures valued at €18 billion over the next two years to bring its budget targets back on track, Mr. Stournaras said.
"Today, what have we achieved? We have achieved the loan extension," he told lawmakers.
Greece has been pushing for softer bailout terms in a bid to minimize the impact of tax increases and spending cuts on the economy. The moves are needed to clinch further financial aid. Greece's economy, now in its fifth year of contraction, is expected to shrink by more than 6% this year and by 4.5% next year, the draft document shows, before staging a mild quarter-to-quarter recovery from 2014.
The revised primary targets—excluding debt servicing costs—involve a deficit of 1.5% of gross domestic product in 2012, and an evenly paced improvement in the primary balance thereafter—by 1.5% of GDP each year to 2016, the document says.
Taking an extra two years to meet those targets "will limit the negative growth impacts in 2013-14, when the economy needs to find a firmer footing, while still preserving a good adjustment pace," the draft states.
A decision on that extension—and more important how to finance it—will be made with euro-zone finance ministers who are expected to decide next month whether to disburse a €31 billion aid installment under an existing €173 billion bailout agreed to earlier this year.
Still, the draft document, which includes many blanks and bracketed estimates, lays out the dozens of reforms and fiscal measures Greece must take over the next two-to-four years to continue qualifying for further loans. These include approval of the €13.5 billion package of spending cuts and tax measures, and moves to step up the country's moribund privatization program and to overhaul its dysfunctional tax system and tax code.
The bulk of the austerity measures will be undertaken in 2013, with €9.2 billion earmarked for that year, according to the draft. The retirement age for Greece would also be raised to 67 from 65 currently.
One of the most controversial measures includes placing up to 25,000 public-sector workers on a special labor reserve, which is widely seen as a step toward their dismissal. Some 5,000 workers are to be transferred to the labor reserve in each quarter of 2013, according to the draft.
Privatization targets, where Greece recently aimed to raise some €19 billion by 2016, would be scaled back even further to about €10 billion through 2016 and €25 billion through 2020.

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