By LEON HADAR
If you are trying to figure out why the Republicans lost this
presidential election and why they will probably continue to lose more in the
future, forget for a second Latino voters (well, only for a second) and think
for a few minutes about Asian-American voters.
In fact, let’s
think about them strategically. Say you are a Republican politico who is
analyzing the economic status, social mobility, and cultural disposition of
various demographic groups and the voting behavior of their members.
And here is this
bloc of voters who, let’s see, tend to gravitate to the private sector with
many of them creating and managing small businesses. Actually, some of them
belong to the wealthiest 1 percent of Americans, and most are doing quite well
in terms of income and job security. They also are very family-oriented and
subscribe to more traditional values.
Based on these
and other social and economic indications, Asian-Americans as an electoral bloc
should be natural political ally of a Republican Party that is, after all,
committed to the principles of the free market, supports the interests of small
businesses, and celebrates hard work and family values, which is probably the
way to describe what Asian-Americans are all about.
Republican
presidential candidate Mitt Romney wanted to demonstrate to voters that
energizing the private sector — and not growing government — is the most
effective way to provide Americans with an opportunity to advance their
economic standing. He had to only point to Asian-Americans, whose median weekly
earnings have been greater than those earned by whites during the last decade
and whose unemployment rate has remained relatively low even during the recent
recession.
According to a
2011 U.S. Labor Department report Asian-Americans are more likely than either
whites or blacks to be employed in the private sector, with more than 8 to 10 percent
of employed Asian-Americans working for private companies. It also reported
that the number of Asian-owned businesses expanded at the rate of 40.4 percent,
a rate that more than doubled the national average between 2002 and 2007. In
short, you would probably find very few Asian-Americans among the ranks of the
“47 percent.”
Moreover, that
many Asian-Americans trace their roots to countries that have been and still
are under the control of Communist regimes that had repressed their families
should have been another reason for many of them to vote for the party of
Ronald Reagan and the other Republican Presidents with impressive
anti-Communist credentials.
And, indeed,
during the post-1945 era the majority of Asian-Americans voters that included
refugees from Communist-ruled China, Korea and Vietnam tended to identify with
the conservative and anti-communist agenda of the Republican Party. The
majority of Asian-American voters went for Reagan, a Republican president whose
economic principles, social values and foreign policy seems to be in line with
theirs, as was his commitment to the notion of America as a nation of
immigrants, that “sunny” disposition that reflected the open and tolerant
cultural outlook of California, the home of scores of immigrants from China,
Vietnam, Korea and Japan, and a state that overlooks the Pacific Ocean.
Republican George
H.W. Bush still received 55 percent of the Asian-American vote compared to 31
percent for Democrat Bill Clinton. But already in 2004 it was Democratic presidential
candidate John Kerry who won the majority (56 percent) of Asian-American vote.
And a majority of
73 percent of Asian-Americans ended up voting for Obama this year, up from 62
percent in 2008. In a way, the percentage of Asian-Americans going for Obama
was higher than that of Latinos who voted for the Democratic presidential
candidate (71 percent) and another traditionally Democratic leaning bloc of
Jewish voters (70 percent).
Yet Romney in his
campaign spent more time courting Jewish voters, by hugging Bibi Netanyahu and
pledging to bomb Iran (but maybe not on his first day in office…) and by making
a few empty gestures to the Hispanics (for example, by considering Marco Rubio for
the vice presidency) while paying no attention to Asian-American voters.
So why are
Republicans losing the Asian-American vote that could actually play a critical
role in presidential elections? Why do Asian-Americans now tend largely to
identify themselves as Democrats, with Korean-Americans resisting the voting
trend among Asian-Americans and continuing to lean Republican — not unlike
Cuban-American voters who remain a faithful Republican voting bloc among the
pro-Democratic Hispanic community?
There are an
about 17.3 million people of Asian or Pacific Islander descent in the United
States (a number that includes also immigrants from India and South Asian
comprising 5.6 percent of the population). Many of them are concentrated in key
“swing” states, like Virginia, Nevada and Florida and close to 80 percent of
these voters took part in the 2012 election.
The main reason
for the growing support for Democrats among members of this electoral bloc is
that that younger and more educated Asian-Americans are drifting by large
numbers to Obama’s party, very much like younger and more educated white
Americans.
According to the
Labor Department study, 57.5 percent of employed Asian-Americans who are 25 or
older have an academic degree, a proportion that is 60 percent higher than
among whites and more than twice that of blacks.
Moreover, 7.8
percent of jobs in high-tech industries are going to Asian-American workers,
making them overrepresented there compared with their overall presence in the
labor force (5 percent). And Asian-Americans are similarly well represented in
science, technology, engineering, and math occupations, accounting for more
than 9 percent of jobs there.
That
social-cultural affinities and not economic interests seem to determine voting
behavior explains why younger and more educated Asian-Americans tend to fit
into the demographic profile of the educated and middle class professionals,
the so-called “creative class” who reside in areas like northern Virginia and
who made it possible for Obama to win this important “swing” state two election
in a row — mirroring the trend of less educated rural and blue-collar Americans
voting for the Republicans.
What’s wrong in
Kansas for the Democrats is the other side of the coin of what’s right for them
in Fairfax County, Virginia, the Research Triangle in North Carolina, and the
concentrations of educated professionals in the Pacific Northwest. The average
Asian-American (or white) high-tech entrepreneur, software engineer, or graphic
designer may have benefited professionally and economically from the
free-market environment of the 1990′s. But he or she feels less comfortable
with a political party perceived to be dominated by white politicians that many
see as being intolerant toward minorities, gays, women and, yes, immigrants.
But Republican
leaders and voters don’t really share xenophobic and anti-immigration
attitudes. Republican politicians of Indian-American ancestry (who converted to
Christianity) have been elected as governors of Louisiana and South Carolina.
And when Republican politicians, like former California Governor Arnold
Schwarzenegger, embrace an election platform that is tolerant of minorities and
immigrants, the majority of Asian-Americans are inclined to support them.
The obsession of
so many Republicans and conservatives with birtherism and with the president’s
alleged Muslim faith only helps to accentuate the notion that Republicans are
hostile toward immigrants and toward Americans who are non-white and
non-Christian. Romney, a politician whose natural inclination was probably to
sound more like
Schwarzenegger and Reagan, ended up under the influence of the likes of Michele Bachmann sounding like the late Sen. Jesse Helms.
Schwarzenegger and Reagan, ended up under the influence of the likes of Michele Bachmann sounding like the late Sen. Jesse Helms.
The Republicans
are probably not going to win the support of the majority of African-American
and Hispanic voters anytime soon. But Republicans are now in danger of losing
the votes of another important demographic group that could have been its
natural political ally. And the same kind of electoral strategy that could draw
young, educated, and professional Asian-Americas into the GOP would also
attract their counterparts in the African-American, Hispanic, and
American-Jewish communities.
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