For Cypriots
trying to make sense of the past 10 days, the worst is yet to come.
While they
may be staying in the euro for now, people on the island are lamenting the
demise of an economy built on the banks that ended up sinking it. Cyprus sealed
an agreement with creditors overnight that will shut one of its largest lenders
in return for 10 billion euros ($13 billion) of aid.
“The problem
is not solved and some bad things are going to happen in the next six months,”
said Maria Philippou, 45, a civil servant in Nicosia and a mother of three.
“The leaders are to blame in Cyprus and the European Union. They let the
bankers do whatever they wanted.”
Cyprus is
the fifth country to tap international aid since the European debt crisis erupted in
Greece in 2009. The accord, revised after a March 16 deal was rejected in the
Cypriot Parliament because of a tax on smaller depositors, exempts bank
accounts below the insured limit of 100,000 euros. It doesn’t spare people’s livelihoods,
locals said.
“We will
have even more people unemployed,” said Epifanos Epifaniou, 50, who used to
drive a delivery truck in Nicosia and has been jobless for six months. “It’s a
huge problem. Nobody knows where we are heading.”
Cypriot
President Nicos Anastasiades agreed to shut Cyprus Popular Bank Pcl, the second
biggest, under pressure from his euro partners and the International Monetary
Fund as negotiations stretched into the night.
Protesting
Hundreds of
protesters massed outside the floodlit presidential palace in Nicosia late
yesterday, shouting for the bailout “troika” of the EU, European Central Bank and IMF to
leave Cyprus, a country of 862,000 people.
The streets
in Nicosia were quieter today because of a national holiday to celebrate Greek
independence, with school children parading to the Greek embassy. Lines
remained at Popular Bank’s cash machines after the daily limit was lowered to
100 euros yesterday from 260 euros.
Anastasiades
was running out of options after failing to get help from the Russians, whose
holdings in Cypriot banks Moody’s Investors Service estimated at $31 billion.
The deal
imposes losses that two EU officials said would be no more than 40 percent on
uninsured depositors at Bank of Cyprus Plc, the largest
bank, which will take over the viable assets of Cyprus Popular Bank
(CPB) as it’s wound down.
Destruction
“I’m not
happy with the agreement because it will be a destroyer for the Cyprus
economy,” said Yannis Emmanouilidis, 50, a chemist. “Because if our bank system
is destroyed, the whole economy will be destroyed.”
Bank assets
in Cyprus swelled to 126.4 billion euros at the end of January, seven times the
size of the 18 billion-euro economy, from 78 billion euros in 2007, data from
the ECB and the EU’s statistics office show.
Emmanouilidis
said he has an account at Popular Bank, or Laiki in Greek, and is thinking
about withdrawing his money, though he doesn’t want to exacerbate the economic
problems.
If he does,
he will have to wait. Banks in Cyprus, which have been shut for the past week,
remain closed and lawmakers voted last week to impose capital controls to prevent a
run on deposits when they reopen.
“Maybe we
won’t have the right to take out our money,” Emmanouilidis said. “This is a
free market and the banks won’t let us take our money out? This is amazing in a
democracy of the European Union.”
Moscow Mission
A Cypriot
mission to Moscow last week failed to yield an alternative to the European-sponsored
bailout.
Before the
change of government in Cyprus last month, Germany was
insisting Russia contribute to any international bailout because it argued
that Russian capital dominates the banking system. It alleged some of that
money was illegal, while Cyprus refuted accusations of money laundering.
A poll this
month by Prime Consulting for Sigmalive TV found 67.3 percent of Cypriots said
the country should leave the euro and tighten relations with Russia. The survey
of 686 people on March 19-20 found 91 percent of respondents supported the
parliament’s decision to reject the initial bailout deal with the proposed
losses for depositors.
“Our lives
are going to be terrible,” said Philippou, the civil servant in the Cypriot
capital. “My husband works at a computer company that does business with the
financial sector so I’m worried what will happen to him.”
The Cypriot
economy contracted 3.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012 from a year
earlier. The budget for this year had projected it will shrink 3.5 percent this
year.
Philippou
was watching her children in a parade to the Greek embassy in Nicosia to mark
today’s annual celebration of Greece’s fight for
independence from Ottoman rule almost two centuries ago. Cypriots are now
looking ahead to a less distinguished period of their intertwined history.
“I think
things here will be worse than Greece eventually,” said Philippou “I worry
about my children. I don’t know if they will be able to have a life like mine.”
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