The apparent benefits of ‘sin taxes’ are
greatly overstated for a variety of reasons. But the biggest problem of all is
what they say about the relationship between the state and the citizen today.
Taxes on alcohol, smoking and ‘junk’ food
are proposed ostensibly to reduce the incidence of a variety of diseases. But
these diseases overwhelmingly affect older people. So we are being asked to pay
more money or forego certain pleasures in exchange for a few extra weeks or
months of life, on average. Alternatively, these taxes target conditions, like
obesity, whose negative effects have been greatly exaggerated.
Such taxes do not hit the pockets of
everyone in society equally; they are regressive, in that they hit poorer
people disproportionately for a variety of reasons. So it seems that
governments have come to save the poor by making them poorer.
It is claimed by some penny-pinching
campaigners and medics that sin taxes save the state money by reducing ill
health. It’s not true. To the marginal extent that such taxes do change
behaviour in the desired fashion, the result will be people living longer and
incurring greater costs in pensions and other old-age benefits, social care and
healthcare. I’m definitely in favour of people living longer, but the argument
that sin taxes are required to stop the National Health Service from being
bankrupted is just wrong. If we were to take such a mean-minded approach to its
logical conclusion, we should be congratulating smokers, for on average dying
earlier than non-smokers, rather than trying to restrict smoking.
While taxes on tobacco and alcohol have
been around for a long time, the idea that we should start modifying people’s
behaviour in relation to food only really become fashionable recently. So when
the Academy of Medical Royal Colleges (AoMRC) came out with a 10-point plan on
reducing obesity a couple of weeks ago, the headline-grabber was the suggestion
of a 20 per cent tax on sugary drinks.
While the UK has been musing on such
ideas, other countries in Europe have been implementing them. In Denmark in
2011, a tax was placed on foods containing more than 2.3 per cent saturated
fat. The Hungarian government has imposed a range of taxes on foods with high
fat, salt or sugar content. But the Danish tax was scrapped a year later and,
if an article in Saturday’sNew York Times is to be believed, most Hungarians
think the fat taxes have done more to impoverish them than to reduce the
consumption of apparently unhealthy foods.
Food taxes like these are a good case
study in the problems and limitations of sin taxes in general.
Firstly, while any price increase will
have some effect on sales of particular foods, that doesn’t mean that people
eat more healthily. They do try to avoid the tax to some extent, but that
doesn’t mean they will simply swap fizzy drinks for bottled water or crisps for
apples. It means they will find alternatives. That might mean choosing a
cheaper brand - which is easy with fizzy drinks because the supermarket
own-brands are usually less than half the price of the big name brands. Or
people might make an effort to buy in bulk to save money, stocking up at the
supermarket rather than buying cans one at a time when they feel like one. Or
they’ll cross the border to another tax jurisdiction if it means lower tax
rates. That last flaw was one of the problems with the Danish fat tax - people
just nipped across to Germany to buy their cheese and sausages in bulk instead
of shopping at home. One of the main beneficiaries of the Danish fat tax, it
would seem, were German supermarkets.
Secondly, there are perverse effects. That
could mean people continuing to consume the cheap naughty-but-nice foods and
saving money by cutting back on fresh vegetables - precisely the opposite
response to the one intended. Or it could be that the taxes hit unintended
foods. So, for example, how do you design a sugary drinks tax that hits
Coca-Cola but not fruit juice, when fruit juice contains more sugar than Coke?
How do you design a fat tax that hits processed meat, for example, but not
top-quality cheese?
Thirdly, food taxes assume that we
understand the medical science clearly, so we can target just a specific ingredient
or component of food and achieve significant health benefits. So the Danish tax
was targeted at saturated fat. But in recent years there has been more and more
evidence to suggest that saturated fat is not the cause of heart disease at all
and has been falsely maligned. We’ve been told for years to avoid fat, so
people have switched to low-fat foods that are often higher in sugar than the
full-fat alternative. And what’s dietary enemy number one today? Sugar. Unless
you are sure on the science, don’t interfere. Given the medical profession’s
obsession with interfering and micromanaging our lives, it would be good if
they could remember the first thing they learned at medical school: First, do
no harm.
But the biggest problem with sin taxes is
what they do to personal freedom. I would be opposed to sin taxes even if you
could design one that only reduced consumption of the specific thing you were
aiming for, was not regressive, and which had clear health benefits. That’s
because I don’t believe it is the place of governments to distort the
environment in which I live in order to persuade me to make the right choices
rather than choices deemed by somebody else to be the wrong ones. The idea of a
National Health Service should be to provide affordable access to healthcare
when I’m sick, not to tell me how to live when I’m healthy. Having given up on
the idea of nationalising industry, it seems the state has decided to
nationalise our bodies instead.
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