Down and out in Paris

France’s beleaguered president

François Hollande can still resuscitate his presidency—but he must tell the French the truth

By The Economist

THE French are not known for their optimism, but recently their morosité has been plumbing new depths. The popularity rating of the Socialist president, François Hollande, has tumbled faster and further than that of any other president since the Fifth Republic began in 1958. The decline in his fortunes is a rebuke for his failure to honour his breezy campaign promises last year to scrap austerity and cut unemployment. A television appearance on March 28th that was supposed to relaunch his presidency did not go well.

Now a scandal over his former budget minister, Jérôme Cahuzac, is likely to damage him further. Mr Cahuzac has admitted lying about an illicit Swiss bank account. Mr Hollande hung on to him for too long, and many claim that he should have known sooner about his dodgy finances (seearticle). The president had promised that, unlike his right-wing predecessor, Nicolas Sarkozy, he would run an exemplary government with squeaky-clean ministers.

It is in both France’s and Europe’s interest that Mr Hollande recovers some of his political flair. France’s economy is teetering on the brink of yet another recession. The budget deficit for this year will be far above the previously agreed euro-zone target of 3% of GDP. Unemployment is nearing 11%. France’s problems are becoming Europe’s too. The sharp rise in French joblessness is one of the main reasons why euro-zone unemployment has hit its highest level since the single currency was introduced in 1999. The fiscal failings and lack of growth of the euro zone’s second-biggest economy are helping to drag down an entire continent.

Au revoir, Angela

The European project has always been led jointly by France and Germany. For all his faults, Mr Sarkozy was careful to work closely with the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, throughout the euro crisis. Now the partnership has crumbled. Mrs Merkel regards Mr Hollande’s reforms as pitifully inadequate, while he has been making common cause with southern Mediterranean countries against her excessive austerity. His growing weakness reduces his usefulness still further. With a diminished France and a reluctant Germany struggling to steer Europe on its own, the euro zone seems to be drifting apart. Even a banking union, which is essential for the euro’s survival, looks increasingly doubtful (see Charlemagne).

It is not too late for Mr Hollande to recover. Although criticism of him within his party is growing—the left is no longer impressed by his flashy promise to soak the rich through the notorious 75% top income-tax rate come what may (see article)—he faces no internal challenge. The opposition is divided, Mr Sarkozy has legal problems of his own and France has no nationwide polls until local elections in March 2014.

If Mr Hollande is to use this time to strengthen his position, he urgently needs to persuade his party and the voters of the case for change. His attempts to make France more competitive by reforming the labour market and cutting red tape are welcome, but he needs to do more. He has begun to reverse his foolish campaign message stressing a reduction in the retirement age, but has yet to sell the idea that the French need to work longer and harder to pay for their benefits and their old age. France’s state eats up 57% of GDP, the highest in the euro zone; but although Mr Hollande has admitted that public spending must be cut, he has yet to spell out how and where.

The president’s great failing is that he has never tried to convince his countrymen of the need for reform. His election campaign largely ignored the subject, giving voters the impression that more taxes on the rich and an end to austerity would be enough to cure France’s ills. So his belated conversion to the need for spending cuts, welfare savings and pension reforms has left the electorate unconvinced.

France’s economy cannot recover without structural reform, and its refusal to make enough changes is undermining the single currency. That is a hard argument for a president from the left to make, but if Mr Hollande does not get the message across, his presidency—and much else—will fail.