By Zvi Mazel
For the Muslim
Brotherhood, the long awaited dream come true is turning into a nightmare.
Having survived 80 years of persecution to achieve power democratically, they
suddenly find themselves the focus of widespread popular hatred.
Never have
Egyptians been in such dire economic traits.
Egyptian President
Mohamed Morsi, however, is not about to give up and make way for new
presidential elections. The Brotherhood will spare no effort to stay in power.
Such is the depth
of the economic, social and political crisis that the threat of civil war
appears all too real.
Most commentators
believe the army won't let things go that far and will step in; however the
road back to recovery and a civilian regime accepted by all will be long and
arduous.
Civil
disobedience is rampant.
In Port Said the
police have disappeared from the streets and the army called in to maintain law
and order. Indeed here and there people are petitioning the courts to appoint
popular Defense Minister Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to rule Egypt in Morsi's stead.
They know it won't happen but are trying to make a point. Demonstrations
calling for getting rid of Morsi and of the Brotherhood are held on a daily
basis in Cairo and in cities all over the country. They are met by militant
groups of the Brotherhood. Dozens have died and thousands were wounded in the
resulting clashes though both sides are trying not to let the violence
escalate.
The economy is in
shambles.
In a remarkable
and enduring show of unity, non-Islamic opposition parties under the banner of
the National Salvation Front are boycotting the regime until their demands -
canceling the Islamic constitution and setting up a consensus government until
new elections are held - are met.
The Muslim
Brotherhood who had won a sweeping victory in the first free parliamentary
elections and got their candidate elected president have bitterly disappointed
the people who had put their faith in them.
Nothing has been
done to improve their lot. Upon taking office Morsi had promised - and failed -
to take care of five burning issues within a hundred days: growing insecurity,
monster traffic jams in the capital, lack of fuel and cooking gas, lack of
subsidized bread, and the mounting piles of refuse in the streets.
The president's
high-handed attempt to take over all legislative powers and grant himself full
immunity provoked such an outcry that he had to back down. He sacked the
prosecutor-general and appointed a new one - only to have his decision
overthrown by the Cairo Court of Cassation last week, throwing the judicial
system into disarray.
It seems that such
unwise and unpopular moves were taken without prior consultations with his
advisers and that in fact it was the Supreme Guidance Bureau of the Brotherhood
which had urged Morsi to do so. In other words, the president is acting as a
proxy for the movement.
Dissatisfaction is
now evident everywhere. Elections held in students' union throughout the
country saw Brotherhood candidates defeated by independent candidates. Worse,
elections to the key Journalists' Syndicate saw the victory of Diaa Rashwan,
head of Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic studies and bitter opponent
of the Brotherhood.
In other words the
movement is losing both the youth and the elites.
Yet the regime
plods on as if unaware of the fact that times have changed and that people are
no longer afraid to take to the streets to fight for the future of their
country.
On the contrary,
Morsi is hard at work appointing as many of his men as he can everywhere, from
national to regional and local positions supervising everything from public
order to food distribution - such as it is - under his direct orders.
Clearly, he is
here to stay.
Army no longer
refusing Islamic candidates
In a new and
startling development, he is now turning to the army. For the first time since
Nasser ruled, the army academy is no longer refusing Islamic candidates.
Then of course
there is the legislation. The lower house of parliament has been disbanded by
the courts because of widespread electoral fraud, so Morsi gave temporary
legislative powers to the upper house "Shura council."
These powers were
supposed to be used for urgent legislation; however taking advantage of the
solid Islamic majority - 80 percent Muslim Brotherhood and Salafists - Morsi is
pushing through laws organizing the next elections, restraining the right to
strike and to demonstrate; in the wings are stringent laws regulating NGOs -
including a special provision legalizing the Brotherhood - a movement banned by
Nasser. This was needed because the advisory board of the High Administrative
Court had declared the movement illegal and recommended that it be disbanded.
Within two days of
the ruling a new law had been drafted and is now awaiting the verdict of the
High Constitutional Court. The problem is that the Brotherhood has since its
inception refused to divulge the list of its members and the origin of its
funds - two requirements for registering a movement.
While feminist
organizations are demonstrating against repeated violence against women and
fatwas encouraging such violence, the Brotherhood posted on its official
website a condemnation of the recent UN resolution on the rights of women
"because it is in violation of the Shari'a."
Currency shortage
threatens petrol, food imports
Strangely enough,
while the level of violence in the streets is steadily rising, the president
has nothing to say.
It is as if the
Brotherhood had adopted the motto "least said, soonest mended" and
had decided to keep a low profile in the hope of seeing the protests die a
natural death as protesters get tired or lose hope.
Yet there is no
sign of it happening anytime soon. In the wake of the last round of violence
around the Brotherhood's Cairo headquarters, Morsi did warn that if
"hooliganism" did not stop, harsh measures would be taken. His
warning only added fuel to the fire, resulting in new clashes and more wounded.
In the meantime,
currency reserves are bleeding, there may be soon not enough money to pay for
imports of petrol and basic food supplies.
Subsidizing these
items accounts for 25 percent of the country's budget. Qatar, Saudi Arabia and
Libya did extend substantial help, but it all went to subsidies and imports.
None of the long overdue economic reforms have been launched. Without these
reforms the International Monetary Fund is withholding the $4.8 billion loan
Egypt desperately needs; there is also the small problem of the interest to be
paid; Islamic circles are vehemently opposing any form of interest, which they
said is prohibited by Shari'a law.
Unless and until a
solution is found, Western countries will not lend any money to Egypt.
Power failures are
getting more frequent, queues for petrol and cooking gas longer and food is
scarce.
Investors have
fled, tourists are scared. Hunger riots may not be far off. Yet the Brotherhood
surges blindly on, not ready to let go of the golden prize achieved after
nearly a century. And so the standoff goes on between the regime and the
opposition, while quicksand threatens to engulf them all.
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