It feels like the Right has split irrevocably

Cameron’s carelessness has mixed with public contempt for politicians to create a toxic brew

There is now a serious chance that Nigel Farage will smash the existing party system and usher in a very different structure at Westminster

By Iain Martin

Nigel Farage is a most unlikely revolutionary. In his covert coat and pinstripes, with a pint in one hand and a fag in the other, the leader of Ukip looks like a Conservative archetype: the over-taxed Tory of the shires who has nipped outside for a smoke before he begins the long commute home after toiling all day in the City.

Yet he stands on the verge of pulling off a remarkable coup. If he succeeds in his mission – if Ukip does not blow up on the launch pad before the next general election – there is now a serious chance that Mr Farage will smash the existing party system and usher in a very different structure at Westminster.

Of course, the realignment of the British party system has been predicted, wrongly, on many occasions since the Second World War. Most commonly, the mooted redrawing of the tribal map has involved the parties of the centre-Left reconfiguring themselves in order that they might stand a better chance of defeating the once-mighty Tory machine.

There was even a time, in the late 1980s and early 1990s, when it was fashionable to say that there might never be another Labour government, and that to stand a chance the party would require a pact with the Liberals and (for a while) their erstwhile colleagues in the SDP.

Indeed, the creation of the SDP, a breakaway of moderates from embattled Labour in the early 1980s, was said to have “broken the mould”. The new party scored the kind of stratospheric poll ratings of which Mr Farage can only dream. It did have a major influence, although not in the way that its four founders intended: its main contribution was to create the climate in which Tony Blair could emerge as Labour leader. Then the SDP vanished. Labour, written off for more than a decade, came roaring back in 1997 and won three successive general elections. Once again, one of the two old parties had reasserted itself following an existential crisis.

The Tory party’s experience in the modern era has been markedly different. Although there have been frequent crises in its affairs, for a remarkably long period it has been widely accepted that conservative-minded Britons cluster around the Conservatives. The party itself having been shaped by the splits and breakaways of the 19th century, its members and leaders came to understand that being a broad coalition of interests gave it enormous electoral clout.

Suddenly, a significant chunk of conservative opinion is rejecting this historically successful approach. It is nothing like a majority, but it is a large proportion and it is starting to feel as though the split may be irrevocable.

In part, this is Mr Cameron’s fault. He was so determined to attract new supporters – a noble and necessary aim – that he became careless about the feelings of his party’s existing voters. The Prime Minister’s casual decision to pick a fight on gay marriage with so many Tory members reinforced the idea that he does not like or respect the traditional wing.

On the back of it, Ukip membership is rising (next stop 30,000) and Conservative membership looks likely to dip below 100,000. Describing those left in the Tory fold as “swivel-eyed lunatics” can only speed up the process.

Worse, Mr Cameron has made these mistakes at just the moment when public contempt for existing institutions and professional politicians has boiled over. This has given the populist Mr Farage the most tremendous opportunity. Last night his party surged to 22 per cent in the latest poll, just two points behind the Tories.

I do not mean to suggest for a moment that Ukip will win many Commons seats, or perhaps even any, at the next general election. Yet it does not need to replace the Conservative Party to cause great harm. If it polls around 6 per cent in 2015, that will be double what it managed last time. If it can get closer to 10 per cent – not inconceivable – then the old party system may be done for.

For two decades or more, that system has been decaying and disintegrating. It is not just the rise of a third party in the shape of the Liberal Democrats (which sprang from the Liberal and SDP Alliance) that matters here. Scotland now has an entirely different electoral ecosystem, with a Nationalist government. The Conservatives consider themselves a national party, yet they have no chance of a revival north of the border and are locked out of the north-east of England and many major cities.

Equally, Labour is going nowhere in the southern, populous places where Tony Blair made inroads. Last week, it sunk to 34 per cent in an opinion poll. Neither of the two larger parties any longer seem capable of rallying above 40 per cent of the vote and winning a strong mandate.

The implications are potentially enormous. If the trend for fragmentation is sustained, it will most likely mean the introduction of a new voting system: proportional representation. If Labour is the largest party, but short of a majority, after the next election, its logical next step is a deal to change the voting system in alliance with all the other parties, bar the Tories. It would get Ed Miliband into power and probably lead to further splits on the Right as all manner of factions – the tiny band of Tory Europhiles, for example – struck out on their own, confident under PR of picking up a few seats and bartering their way to a slice of power.

The prospect of PR should fill us with horror. It allows politicians to stitch up deals after the voters have had their say and denies the country strong government at moments of crisis. But if neither Labour nor the Tories are capable of commanding a broad sweep of public opinion on polling day, it is where we are headed.