Endgame for Pakistani Taliban

Afghanistan is a strange country

By M K Bhadrakumar

The killing of the chief of Pakistani Taliban Hakimullah Mehsud in a drone attack in North Waziristan on Friday becomes a definitive move on the Afghan chessboard. (Dawn). The United States is redeeming its pledge to Pakistan that it would help vanquish the irreconcilable elements within the (Pakistani) Taliban so that the peace process with the (Afghan) Taliban can go ahead. 

At the operational level, Friday’s drone strike suggests a high level of US-Pakistan intelligence coordination as well. I had written in my blog earlier this week that the turnaround in Pakistan’s official assessment of the collateral damage of drone attacks implied a political calibration that would mesh with the Afghan peace process. That is most certainly what is happening. 

Of course, the US is finally buying into the Pakistani allegation that it is a victim of cross-border terrorism masterminded from Afghan soil by foreign countries.  

What lies ahead? The high probability is that the reconciliation of the (Afghan) Taliban may gain traction. The US’ threat perception comes from the Al-Qaeda (with which elements of the Pakistani Taliban have links) while the thinking within the Obama administration in the recent years has been that the US can learn to live with the Taliban as they do not threaten US interests. 

Second, we may expect the US to be open to the idea of accommodating the Taliban in the Afghan power structure, especially in the southern and eastern regions of Afghanistan bordering Pakistan. Again, the western powers recognize that the Taliban are the only Afghan group with the capability to ’stabilize’ Afghanistan. 

Third, Pakistan can be expected to do all it can to persuade the Taliban leadership to reciprocate by acquiescing with the establishment of the American military bases in Afghanistan. Clearly, in the emergent calculus, a continued US military presence in Afghanistan would mean continued American dependence on Pakistan, which in turn would be beneficial for Pakistan in many ways. 

Having come so close to putting together the underpinnings if a viable post-2014 dispensation in Afghanistan, the US would now have to pay greater attention to the transition in Kabul in April. Clearly, the outcome of the presidential election in Afghanistan should be broadly acceptable to the Taliban as well. 

Suffice to say, it’s about time to take a closer look at the Rasul Sayyaf-Ismail Khan ticket in the April poll.This may sound strange, but then, Afghanistan is a strange country.