Malthus and the Assault on Population
by Murray N. Rothbard
One of the first Smithian economists, and, indeed, a
man who was for two decades the only professor of political economy in England,
was the Rev. Thomas Robert Malthus (1766–1834). Malthus was born in Surrey, the
son of a respected and wealthy lawyer and country gentleman. Malthus graduated
from Jesus College, Cambridge, in 1788 with honors in mathematics and five
years later became a fellow of that college. During that same year, Robert
Malthus became an Anglican curate in Surrey, in the parish where he had been
born.
Malthus seemed destined to lead the quiet life of a
bachelor curate, when, in 1804, at nearly 40, he married and promptly had three
children. The year after his marriage, Malthus became the first professor of
history and political economy in England, at the new East India College at
Haileybury, a post he retained until his death. All his life, Malthus remained
a Smithian, and was to become a close friend, though not disciple, of David
Ricardo. His only marked deviation from Smithian doctrine, as we shall see, was
his proto-Keynesian worry about alleged underconsumption during the economic
crisis after the end of the Napoleonic Wars.
But Malthus was, of course, far more than a Smithian
academic, and he gained both widespread fame and notoriety while still a
bachelor. For "Population" Malthus became known worldwide for his
famous assault on human population.
In previous centuries, insofar as writers or
economists dealt with the problem at all, they were almost uniformly
propopulationists. A large and growing population was considered a sign of
prosperity, and a spur to progress. The only exception, as we have seen, was
the late-16th-century Italian absolutist theorist Giovanni Botero, the first to
warn that population growth is an ever-present danger, tending as it does to
increase without limit, while the means of subsistence grows only slowly. But
Botero lived at the threshold of great economic growth, of advances in total
population as well as standards of living, and so his gloomy views got very
short shrift by contemporaries or later thinkers. Indeed, absolutists and
mercantilists tended to admire growing population as providing more hands for
production on behalf of the state apparatus as well as more fodder for its
armies.
Even those 18th century writers who believed that
population tended to increase without limit, curiously enough favored that development. This was true of the
American Benjamin Franklin (1706–90), in his Observations Concerning the Increase of Mankind and the Peopling of
Countries(1751). Similarly, the physiocrat
leader Mirabeau, in his famous L'Ami des Hommes ou traité de la population (The
Friend of Man or a Treatise on Population) (1756), while comparing human reproduction to that of rats — they
would multiply up to the very limit of subsistence like "rats in a
barn" — yet advocated such virtually unlimited reproduction.
A large population, said Mirabeau, was a boon and a
source of wealth, and it was preciselybecause people
will multiply like rats in a barn up to the limit of subsistence that
agriculture — and hence the production of food — should be encouraged. Mirabeau
had picked up the "rats-in-a-barn" metaphor from Cantillon, but
unfortunately did not inherit Cantillon's highly sensible and sophisticated
"optimum-population" realization that human beings will flexibly
adjust population to standards of living, and that their noneconomic values
will help them decide on whatever trade-offs they may choose between a slightly
larger population or a smaller population and higher standards of living.
Mirabeau's coleader of physiocracy, François Quesnay,
however, converted him to a gloomy view of the influence of the alleged
tendency to unlimited population growth on standards of living. Adam Smith,
Malthus's standard-bearer in economics, managed, in typically confused and
contradictory fashion, at one and the same time to provide Malthus with all his
ammunition for gloom and doom while remaining a cheerful proponent of large and
growing numbers of people. For on the one hand, Smith opined that people would
indeed insist on breeding up to the minimum of subsistence — the essential
Malthusian doctrine. But, on the other, Smith asserted cheerfully that
"the most decisive mark of the prosperity of any country is the increase
of the number of its inhabitants."
At about the time that Adam Smith was sinking into
confusion and paving the way for the unfortunate antipopulation hysteria of
Robert Malthus, the unheralded Abate Antonio Genovesi, the first professor of
economics on the Continent (at the University of Naples), was pointing the way
to a very different solution to the population question. In his Lezione di economia civile(1765), this excellent utility-value theorist was reminiscent of
Cantillon's insight about an "optimum" population. Under any given
conditions, he pointed out, population can either be too large or too small for
optimum "happiness" or living standards.
Robert Malthus was moved to consider the population
question by wrestling in friendly and repeated argument with his beloved
father, Daniel, a fellow country squire in Surrey. Daniel was a bit of a
radical, and was influenced by the Utopian and even communistic opinions of the
day. He was a friend and great admirer of the French radical Jean Jacques
Rousseau.
The 1790s was the era of the outburst of the French
Revolution, and it was a decade when ideas of liberty, equality, Utopia, and
revolution were very much in the air. One of the most popular and influential
radical works in England was William Godwin's (1756–1836) Enquiry Concerning Political Justice (1793), which was for a time the talk of England. Godwin, son and
grandson of dissenting ministers, had himself been a dissenting minister when
he lapsed into secularism and became a radical theorist and writer. In his
Utopian belief in the perfectibility of man, Godwin has been generally
bracketed with the distinguished French philosopher and mathematician
Condorcet, whose great paean to optimism and progress, Esquisse d'un tableau historique des progrès de l'esprit humain (Sketch
for an Historical Picture of the Progress of the Human Mind)(1794) was, remarkably, written while in hiding from the Jacobin Terror and
in the shadow of his arrest and death.
But the two optimists were very different. For
Condorcet, close friend of Turgot and admirer of Adam Smith, was an
individualist and a libertarian, a firm believer in free markets and in the rights
of private property. William Godwin, on the other hand, was the world's first
anarchocommunist, or rather, voluntary anarchocommunist. For Godwin, while a
bitter critic of the coercive state, was an equally hostile critic of private
property. But in contrast to late-19th-century anarchocommunists such as
Bakunin and Kropotkin, Godwin did not believe in the imposition of rule by a
coercive commune or collective in the name of anarchistic "no-rule."
Godwin believed, not that private property should be expropriated by force, but
that individuals, fully using their reason, should voluntarily and
altruistically divest themselves of all private property to any passerby. This
system of voluntary abasement, brought about by the perfectibility of human
reason, would result in total equality without private property. In his
voluntarism, Godwin was thus the ancestor of both the coercive communist and
the individualist strains of 19th-century anarchist thought.
In his way, however, Godwin was every bit as, and even
more, appreciative of the benefits of individual freedom and a free society as
was Condorcet. He was sure that population would never grow beyond the limits
of the food supply, for he was convinced that "There is a principle in the
nature of human society, by means of which everything seems to tend to its
level, and to proceed in the most auspicious way, when least interfered with by
the mode of regulation."
"The absurdly mechanistic view that people, unchecked, would breed like fruit flies, cannot be demonstrated by simply spelling out the implications of the alleged 'doubling itself every 25 years.'"
The Marquis de Condorcet, sensibly enough, was also
not worried about excessive population growth wrecking the future libertarian
and free market "utopia" that he envisaged for the future of man. He
was not worried because he believed that on the one hand science, technology,
and free markets would greatly expand the subsistence available, while reason
would persuade people to limit population to numbers that could be readily
sustained. William Godwin, however, was not content with this intelligent
treatment of the problem.
On the contrary, in the first place, Godwin worried,
in proto-Malthusian fashion, that population did always tend to press on
resources so as to keep living standards down to subsistence level. He
believed, however, in some sort of leap in being, a New Godwinian Man, and
institutions where "reason" would instead prevail. It would prevail,
in fact, by reason making man master of his passions, to such an extent that
sexual passion would gradually become extinct, and advancing health would make
man immortal. We would, then, have a future human race of immortal and
ever-aging adults, a Utopia that seems impossibly dotty:
The men therefore … will probably cease to propagate.
The whole will be a people of men, and not of children. Generation will not
succeed generation, nor truth have, in a certain degree, to recommence her
career every thirty years.… There will be no war, no crimes, no administration
of justice, as it is called, and no government. Every man will seek, with
ineffable ardour, the good of all.
William Godwin had learned of the alleged eternal
pressure of population down to subsistence from Dr. Robert Wallace (1697–1771),
a Scottish Presbyterian minister, who had set forth his allegedly Utopian
government in his Various Prospects of Mankind (1761). Wallace's ideal Utopia was a world government which imposed
totalitarian communism compelling equality and eradicating private property.
The state would bring up all children, and all would be taken care of. The fly
in the ointment, however, the serpent in Eden, would be population growth. The
marvelous conditions provided by world communism would lead to population
growing so rapidly that mass misery and starvation would prevail. As Wallace
lamented,
Under a perfect government, the inconveniences of
having a family would be so entirely removed, children would be so well taken
care of, and every thing become so favourable to populousness, that … mankind
would increase so prodigiously, that the earth would at last be overstocked,
and become unable to support its numerous inhabitants.… There would not even be
sufficient room for containing their bodies upon the surface of the earth.
Hence, Utopian communism would have to be abandoned.
"In his voluntarism, Godwin was thus the ancestor of both the coercive communist and the individualist strains of 19th-century anarchist thought."
William Godwin was too ready to accept Wallace's
mechanistic worry about population growth, but thought rather bizarrely that
the withering away of sex would provide the cure for Wallace's problem and
ensure that egalitarian anarchocommunism would prevail.
Daniel Malthus was just the sort of man to be deeply
impressed by the Godwinian Utopia, and he and his son Robert spent many happy
hours arguing over Godwin's Political Justice, its
second edition (1796), and his follow-up collection of essays, The Enquirer (1797). Robert decided to write a
book clobbering these Utopian fantasies once and for all, and dredged up the
specter of population growth as the inevitable rock upon which such fantasies
would inevitably founder and collapse. Hence the publication in 1798 of the
first edition of Malthus's immensely popular and controversial Essay on the Principle of Population as It Affects the Future Improvement
of Society. The Essay went through five more editions in Malthus's
lifetime, gained him the nickname of "Population Malthus," and gave
rise to literally millions of words of heated controversy.
There was virtually nothing in Malthus's Essay that had not been in Giovanni Botero two
centuries earlier — or, for that matter, in Robert Wallace. As in Botero, all
improvements in living standards are in vain, giving rise to an immediate and
deadly pressure of population growth upon the means of subsistence. Once again,
such mechanistic burgeoning of population can only be limited by the
"positive check" of war, famine, and pestilence; supplemented by the
rather weak "preventive" check of fewer births spurred by continuing
starvation ("preventive or negative" check). There is only one thing
that Malthus added to the Botero model: the spurious mathematical precision of
his famous statement that population tends to "go on doubling itself every
twenty-five years, or increases in a geometrical ratio," while "the
means of subsistence increase in an arithmetical ratio."
It is not easy to see why Botero's antipopulation
hysteria was properly and understandably ignored in an age of joint growth in
population and living standards, while
Malthus, writing in a similar period of growth, should sweep the Western world.
One reason was undoubtedly the fact that Malthus set himself, with verve and
self-assurance, against the highly popular and influential writings of Godwin
as well as against the ideals of the French Revolution. Another was the fact
that, by the time his Essay appeared,
British intellectuals and the British public were turning rapidly away from the
French Revolution in a burst of reaction, oppression, and continuing war
against France. Malthus had the good fortune of being in tune with the latest
twist of theZeitgeist. But a third element explained his
instant renown: the spurious air of the "scientific" that his alleged
ratios gave to a doctrine in an age that was increasingly looking for models of
human behavior and its study in mathematics and the "hard" physical
sciences.
For spurious Malthus's ratios undoubtedly were. There
was no proof whatever for either of these alleged ratios. The absurdly
mechanistic view that people, unchecked, would breed like fruit flies cannot be
demonstrated by simply spelling out the implications of the alleged
"doubling itself every twenty-five years." For example,
Taking the population of the world at any number, a
thousand millions, for instance, the human species would increase in the ratio
of 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512, &c, and subsistence as 1, 2, 3,
4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, &c. In two centuries and a quarter, the population
would be to the means of subsistence as 512 to 10.
In a few more centuries, at the same rate, the
"ratio" of population to subsistence would begin to approach
infinity. This is scarcely demonstrable in any sense, certainly not by
referring to the actual history of human population that, in most of Europe,
remained more or less constant for centuries before the Industrial Revolution.
Still less is there proof of Malthus's proclaimed
"arithmetical ratio," where he simply assumes that the supply of food
will increase by the same amount for decade after decade.
Malthus's one attempt at proof of his ratios was
extraordinarily feeble. Priding himself on relying on "experience,"
Malthus noted that the population of the North American colonies had increased
for a long while in the "geometric ratio" of doubling every 25 years.
But this example hardly demonstrates the fearful outstripping by population of
the "arithmetically increasing" food supply. For, as Edwin Cannan
astutely notes, "This population must have been fed, and consequently the
annual produce of food must also have increased in a geometrical ratio."
His example proved nothing.
Cannan adds that by the sixth chapter of his Essay, Malthus "seems to have had some
inkling of this objection to his argument," and he tries to reply in a
footnote, that "In instances of this kind, the powers of the earth appear
to be fully equal to answer all the demands for food that can be made up on it
by man. But we should be led into an error, if we were thence to suppose that
population and food ever really increase in the same ratio." But since
this is precisely what had happened, Malthus is clearly totally unwitting that
the second sentence in this note is in flat contradiction to the first.[1]
Malthus's pessimistic conclusion about man thus
contrasted with the optimism of his beloved Adam Smith as well as with Godwin.
For if the inexorable pressure of population growth is always and everywhere
destroying any hope of living standards being above subsistence, then the
result is not only gloomy for any communist or egalitarian Utopia. It provides
an equally gloomy prognosis for the free-market society envisioned by Smith,
or, far more consistently, by Condorcet. Yet, unfortunately, in his
understandable eagerness to demolish the case for egalitarian communism,
Malthus threw out the baby with the bath water, and also cast an unnecessary
pall on the far more rational "utopian" prognoses of the free society
and private property by Smith and especially Condorcet.
It was easy for Malthus to dismiss brusquely Godwin's
absurd reliance on the demise of sex to solve the problem of over population.
But his treatment of Condorcet's position was far less cogent. For the
sophisticated French aristocrat had strongly implied that birth control played
a major role in his optimism about the libertarian future. While modern
neo-Malthusians are enthusiastic not only about birth control but also
sterilization and abortion as means of family planning, the conservative
Malthus drew back in horror from any hint of such measures, which he saw simply
as "vice." Malthus denounced Condorcet's solution as
either a promiscuous concubinage, which would prevent
breeding, or … something else as unnatural. To remove the difficulty in this
way, will, surely, in the opinion of most men, … destroy that virtue, and purity
of manners, which the advocates of equality, and of the perfectibility of man,
profess to be the end and object of their views.
A sally that might apply neatly to Godwin, but
scarcely to Condorcet, for whom "purity" was scarcely an overriding
concern.
"In fact, Malthus's Essay is one of the rare works in the history of economic thought whose second edition in effect totally contradicted the first."
In fact, Malthus held out little hope for mankind. His
one practical proposal was the gradual abolition of the Poor Law, and
especially of the idea of the right of the
poor to be supported by the state. That would discourage excessive breeding
among the poor.
All in all, Schumpeter's scathing assessment of
the Essayof 1798 was well-deserved. Malthus, he wrote, held
that population was actually and inevitably increasing
faster than subsistence and that this was the reason for the misery observed.
The geometrical and arithmetical ratios of these increases, to which Malthus …
seems to have attached considerable importance, as well as his other attempts
at mathematical precision, are nothing but faulty expressions of this view
which can be passed by here with the remark that there is of course no point
whatever in trying to formulate independent "laws" for the behavior
of two interdependent quantities. The performance as a whole is deplorable in
technique and little short of foolish in substance.[2]
Poor Godwin, however, unfortunately did not come to a
similar assessment — at least not immediately. He was, after all, not a scholar
of population theory, and he had no immediately effective reply. It took Godwin
all of two decades to study the problem thoroughly and come to an effective
refutation of his nemesis. In On Population (1820),
Godwin came to the cogent and sensible conclusion that population growth is not
a bogey, because over the decades the food supply would increase and the birth
rate would fall. Science and technology, along with rational limitation of
birth, would solve the problem.
Unfortunately, Godwin's timing could not have been
worse. By 1820, the aging Godwin — along with utopianism and even the French
Revolution — had been forgotten in Great Britain. His excellent rebuttal went
unread and unsung, while Malthus continued to tower over all as the
much-admired final word on the population question.
His Essay being
world-famous, and Godwin and Condorcet, as he believed, effectively disposed
of, Malthus now decided to spend some years actually studying the population
problem. Remarkably, Malthus's second edition of the Essay in 1803 (on which all five future editions
were based) was a very different work. In fact, Malthus's Essay is one of the rare works in the history of
economic thought whose second edition in effect totally contradicted the first.
The second edition incorporated the fruits of
Malthus's study on population through his travels in Europe. Filled with
copious statistics, the new edition was fully three times the size of the
first. But that was the least of the changes. For whereas in the first edition
the "preventive check" was minor and hopeless, as well as a generally
"vicious" possibility for solution, Malthus now acknowledged
that another negative, or preventive check, one that
entailed neither vice nor misery, was a real possibility for ameliorating or
even suspending the eternal pressure of population upon the food supply. This
was "moral restraint," i.e., chastity and restraint from early
marriage, which was moral and not "vicious" because it involved
neither birth control nor other forms of "irregular gratification" or
"improper acts." Indeed, for Malthus, "moral restraint" now
became the "most powerful" check on population of them all, more
powerful even than vice or the misery and starvation of the previously dominant
"positive check."
"Certainly, the triumph of the Malthusian fallacy played an important role in the common view that the science of economics itself was and is cold, hardhearted, excessively rational, and opposed to the lives and welfare of people."
As a result, human beings were no longer viewed as the
puppets of inexorable and gloomy forces, which could now be overcome by moral
restraint and moral education. In the first edition, indeed, Malthus stood
opposed to any growth of leisure or luxury in society, for such increasing ease
would eliminate the extreme pressure needed to awaken naturally slothful man
into working hard and maintaining maximum production. But now his view had
changed. Now, Malthus realized that if the poor were to acquire the qualities
of the middle class, and hence a "taste for the conveniences and comforts
of life," they would be more likely to exercise the moral restraint
necessary to maintain that way of life. As Malthus now wrote, "It is the
diffusion of luxury therefore among the mass of the people … that seems to be
most advantageous."
Malthus now emphasized another proposed moral reform
in keeping with his new position: that people try to reduce the number of
children by marrying at a later date. Such moral restraint, he was now
convinced, entailed neither of the two dread checks of vice or misery.
Alexander Gray's discussion of this theme is marked by his characteristic
insight and wit:
Contrary to the usual view as to what is involved in
Malthusianism, he restricts himself to telling us not to be in too great a
hurry to get married, with a special appeal to his women readers, who, "if
they could look forward with just confidence to marriage at twenty-seven or
twenty-eight," should (and would) prefer to wait until then, "however
impatiently the privation might be borne by the men." This is the voice of
a dear and kindly old uncle, rather than the monster for whom Malthus has so
frequently been mistaken; and it as ineffective as the advice of an uncle in
such matters usually is. For even with marriage at twenty-eight there is time
for a disconcerting and devastating torrent of children.[3]
Oddly enough, however, Malthus's new view was not very
far removed from his enemy Godwin's invocation of "virtue, prudence, or
pride" in limiting the growth of population. Shorn of the nonsense of the
withering away of sex, Godwin was now vindicated, and Malthus seemed implicitly
to agree by taking the refutation of Godwin and Condorcet — who had now faded
from public view — out of the title page of the second edition.
Unfortunately, however, Malthus never acknowledged any
change whatever. Godwin rightly complained that Malthus had co-opted his own
major criticism without credit or even acknowledging the abandonment of his own
views. Malthus maintained from 1803 onward that his thesis had not at all been
changed, but only elaborated and improved. His changes were stuck into the text
in passing, while he continued to place great importance upon his arbitrary
ratios. His changes were evasive rather than frank; for example, in his second
edition, Malthus quietly removed the self-contradictory note in which he denied
that food could ever increase "geometrically," or as much as
population. In fact, he virtually admits that food has sometimes increased
geometrically in "new colonies," i.e., in North America.
Instead, he now confined his self-confident assertions
to prophecy — a prophecy which the growth of living standards in England proved
to be wrong within his own lifetime. And yet Malthus continued to write that
his ratios were self-evident, even though he conceded that it was impossible to
find out what the rate of increase of "unchecked" population would
actually be. In the end, as Cannan justly declares,
"the Essay on the Principle of Population falls to the ground as an argument, and remains only a chaos of facts collected to illustrate the effect of laws which do not exist."[4]
Malthus, in fact, had executed a cunning and
successful tactical maneuver: he had introduced enough qualifications and
concessions to fuzz over his argument. He and his followers could maintain the
full arrogance and error of the first edition and then, if challenged, beat a
clever retreat by bringing up the qualifications and asserting that Malthus had
anticipated and met all the charges against him. He was able to maintain the
hard-nosed position of his first edition, while being able to fall back on the
cloudy concessions of his second. As Schumpeter writes, "the new
formulation made it indeed possible for adherents to this day to take the
ground that Malthus had foreseen, and accounted for, practically everything
opponents might say." He adds that "this does not alter the fact that
all the theory gains thereby is orderly retreat with the artillery lost."
"It looks as if Godwin was right that given freedom, individuals in society and the marketplace will tend to make the correct birth decisions."
Unfortunately, however, neither Malthus's followers
nor even many of his astute critics realized this point. And so, Malthus and
his followers had ensconced themselves in the security of a theory that,
regardless of the facts, could never be refuted. Or, they could fall back on
what Schumpeter calls the "horrible triviality" that if indeed population increased geometrically forever
and food barely increased at all, then enormous crowding and misery would
result.[5]
Unfortunately, Malthus's own self-serving
interpretation of the changes of his second edition was adopted by nearly all
his contemporaries — friends and critics alike — as well as by historians until
recent years. Most of Malthus's readers, for one thing, had been swept away by
the verve and panache of his first edition, and simply didn't bother reading
the much longer and stodgier second. Instead, they simply and conveniently
interpreted the new material as merely empirical documentation of Malthus's
original thesis. Even his more thoughtful readers interpreted moral restraint
as just another negative check on population, a mere refinement of the basic
theory.
And so, thus protected and interpreted, Malthus's
fallacious and inchoate principle of population carried the day and, adopted
enthusiastically by Ricardo and his followers, was to become enshrined into
British classical economics. As we shall see further in volume 2, even though
Nassau W. Senior in effect devastatingly refuted Malthus, his own piety toward
Malthus and his image allowed Malthusianism to remain at least officially
enshrined in economic thought. It is an unfortunate story. Thus, as Schumpeter
writes,
the teaching of Malthus' Essay became firmly entrenched in the system of
economic orthodoxy of the time in spite of the fact that it should have been,
and in a sense was, recognized as fundamentally untenable or worthless by
1803.… It became the "right" view on population … which only ignorance
or obliquity could possibly fail to accept — part and parcel of the set of
eternal truth that had been observed once for all. Objectors might be lectured,
if they were worthy of the effort, but they could not be taken seriously. No
wonder that some people, utterly disgusted at this intolerable presumption,
which had so little to back it, began to loathe this "science of
economies," quite independently of class or party considerations — a
feeling that has been an important factor in that science's fate ever after.[6]
Certainly, the triumph of the Malthusian fallacy
played an important role in the common view that the science of economics
itself was and is cold, hardhearted, excessively rational, and opposed to the
lives and welfare of people. The idea of economics being antihuman reached a
bold and unforgettable expression in Dickens's Scrooge, the caricature of a
Malthusian who cackled that poverty and starvation would be helpful in
"reducing the surplus population."
In the last half of the 19th century, as Schumpeter
writes, "the interest of economists in the population question declined,
but they rarely failed to pay their respects to the shibboleth." Then, in
the early decades of the 20th century, at the very same time as the birth rate
in the Western world began to decline sharply, economists revived their
interest in Malthusian doctrine. Schumpeter's irony was properly bitter:
"An ordinary mortal might have thought that the fall in the birth rate …
and the rapidly approaching goal of a stationary population, should have set
worrying economists at rest. But that mortal would thereby have proved that he
knew nothing about economists." Instead, at the same time that more
economists stressed Malthusianism, others stressed precisely the reverse:
While some of them were still fondling the Malthusian
toy, others zestfully embraced a new one. Deprived of the pleasure of worrying
themselves and of sending cold shivers down the spines of other people on
account of the prospective (or present) horrors of overpopulation, they started
worrying themselves and others on account of a prospectively empty world.[7]
By the 1930s, in fact, economists and politicians were
howling about the imminence of "race suicide," and an excessively
falling birth rate. The Great Depression, as we shall see, was blamed by some
economists on a birth rate which had started falling decades before.
Governments such as France, mindful also of their need for cannon fodder, gave
bounties to large families.
Then, by the 1960s and 1970s, antipopulation hysteria
arose again, with ever more strident calls for voluntary or even compulsory
zero population growth, and countries such as India and China experimented with
compulsory sterilization or compulsory abortion. Characteristically, the height
of the hysteria, in the early 1970s, came after the 1970
census in the United States noted a significant decrease in the birth rate and
the beginnings of an approach toward a stationary state of population. It was
also observed that various third-world countries were beginning to see a marked
slowing of the birth rate, a few decades after the fall in death rate due to
the infusion of Western advances in medicine and sanitation. It looked again as
if people's habituation to higher living standards will lead them to lower the
birth rate after a generation of enjoying the fruits of lower death rates.
Population levels will, indeed, tend to adapt to maintain cherished standards
of living. It looks as if Godwin was right that given freedom, individuals in
society and the marketplace will tend to make the correct birth decisions.
Murray N. Rothbard (1926–1995) was dean of the
Austrian School. He was an economist, economic historian, and libertarian
political philosopher. See Murray N. Rothbard's article
archives.
This article is excerpted from An Austrian Perspective on the History of Economic Thought, vol. 1, Economic Thought Before Adam Smith, chapter 17, part 2, "The Influence of Dugald Stewart" (1995).
An MP3 audio file of this article, read by Jeff Riggenbach, is available for download.
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Notes
[1] Edwin Cannan, A History of the Theories of Production and Distribution in
English Political Economy from 1776 to 1848 (3rd ed., London:
Staples Press, 1917), pp. 110–11.
[2] J.A. Schumpeter, History of Economic Analysis (New York: Oxford
University Press, 1954), p. 579.
[3] Alexander Gray, The Development of Economic Doctrine (London:
Longmans, Green and Co., 1931), pp. 163–4.
[4] Cannan, op. cit., note
2, p. 113.
[5] Schumpeter, op. cit.,
note 3, p. 580.
[6] Schumpeter, op. cit.,
note 3, pp. 581–2.
[7] Schumpeter, op. cit.,
note 3, p. 584.
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