In sum, bank lending is the primary driver of monetary expansion and contraction
"The key function of banks is money creation, not intermediation."— Michael Kumhof, Deputy Division Chief, International Monetary Fund
In November
18th's remarks I wrote a piece on Quantitative Easing and its implications
regarding the money supply and inflation. I received lots of feedback and would
like to say thanks to those who took the time to write in. The additional
questions posed were very insightful and show there is substantial interest in
understanding these concepts in greater detail.
The following
piece delves deeper into bank lending and its function as the primary driver of
expansion and contraction of our monetary system.
This is going
to sound harsh, but any discussion about economics is pointless without a
fundamental understanding of the fractional reserve banking system on which our
economy is built. The intricacies of this system have profound implications on
everything from the money supply to credit market health to price stability and
even whether reversion to a gold standard is possible. We're going to start
small and lay a foundation of knowledge from which we can then explore some of
the these controversial topics.
Jumping right
in, fractional reserve banking is the practice where bank deposits are backed
by only a fraction of the total deposits. This system predates the formation of
governmental banking authorities and regulations. It originated from the
practices of early bankers, after they realized that depositors typically do
not all demand payment at the same time.
Fractional
reserve banking is thought to have evolved through the observations and actions
of goldsmiths. Before the advent of central banks, goldsmiths assumed a role
similar to depository institutions. They would accept gold and silver for
safekeeping and provide a "note" as proof of deposit. These notes
slowly gained acceptance as a medium of exchange, thereby acting as a form of
paper money. Goldsmiths soon realized that their outstanding notes would not
all be redeemed at one time, and began looking for ways to earn extra income
from the deposits. As goldsmiths began investing their deposits, they soon ended
up with more issued notes than redeemable gold, and the concept of fractional
reserve banking took form.
As we're
going to see, money in our modern banking system has the ability to multiply
through bank lending. Each time a loan is made, money is created. Out of where,
you may ask? Out of thin air. Most people would attribute this feat only to the
Federal Reserve, but in actuality, every bank does it with every loan they
make.
To begin,
we'll need to understand what a reserve ratio is. The reserve ratio refers to
the amount of reserves a bank must retain based on the value of deposits held
at that institution. The reserve ratio varies across different categories of
deposits and the transactional volume of institutions. For most standard
deposits at large banks, the reserve ratio is currently 10%. This means that if
a particular bank has $1 million in deposits, it must hold $100,000 in
reserves, either as vault cash or on deposit with the Federal Reserve. The
other $900,000 worth of deposits are considered the property of the bank, and
the bank can use these funds for profit making activities like investing or
lending.
Let's walk
through a hypothetical example to show how the act of bank lending creates new
money. Say that person A has $100 dollars in cash and decides to deposit this
money into a bank. The bank has a reserve ratio of 10%, and so it must keep $10
in reserves but can loan out the other $90. Let's say the bank makes a $90 loan
to person B.
Time to stop
and recap what just happened. Person A originally had $100 cash and
consequently $100 worth of purchasing power. When person A deposits this money
into a bank, they still have $100 in purchasing power. The bank then loaned out
the $90 that it was not required to hold as reserves and this money went to
person B. Now person B has $90 worth of purchasing power, and person A still
has $100 of purchasing power. Money
was just created.
In the micro
economy of our example, $100 in original purchasing power has just turned into
$190 worth of purchasing power. The amount of money in the economy that is able
to chase goods and services just increased as a result of bank lending.
Taking this
forward another step, let's say person B pays this $90 to person C, who then
deposits it into a bank. This could be the same bank or a different one, it
doesn't matter. The bank must keep $9 of this new deposit (remember 10% of $90
is $9) and can loan out the remaining $81. If the bank lends out the $81, the
money supply in the economy grows again. What started as $100 that was
available to chase goods and services has grown into $271 of purchasing power
($100 + $90 + $81).
This process
can continue over and over as the money is redeposited into banks to be loaned
again. If this process continues to its maximum, the original $100 can grow
into $1000. Notice that this relationship between the initial deposit and the
maximum growth is a factor of the inverse of the reserve ratio. A reserve ratio
of 10% allows a deposit to grow into 10 times as much money. What we have just
described is the "money multiplier" model. An initial sum of money
has "multiplied" through bank lending.
If you
understand the concept outlined above, you should already be questioning some
long held views on money creation. I must warn you, however, that the rabbit
hole of commercial bank money creation goes much deeper than we have covered so
far. This idea of a reserve ratio and banks waiting for customers to make
deposits before lending is somewhat misleading, but it provides a foundation of
thought on which we can build. Although the true mechanisms of money creation
are more complex, it's important to understand this model because it is still
taught at universities, believed by many economists and employed in the policy
making decisions of the Fed.
We're going
to crawl further down the rabbit hole in an upcoming column, but for now we'll
keep things simple and tie up some loose ends.
You've seen
an example of how money is created, and may be wondering how money is
destroyed. If the act of lending creates money, then it should follow that
money is destroyed through repayment and/or default. Both of these operations
reduce the amount of purchasing power in an economy. By the way, we have a
handy term for the destruction of money, it's called deleveraging. While
deleveraging is often not thought of in this way, its impact to the economy as
described in this manner is accurate.
To help
illustrate, let's take a brief look at what happened to housing during the
financial crisis. On the way up, increases in home prices were driven by a
massive expansion of credit. Homes sold for higher and higher prices because
banks were willing to lend larger and larger amounts against these homes. The
money in the economy expanded dramatically, and as it chased real estate, we
experienced the equivalent of home price inflation. During this period, the
amount of leverage, or debt, increased dramatically as a result of commercial
banks creating money.
This all came
tumbling down when homeowners' debt levels had expanded to the point where they
were unpayable. Consumers had effectively leveraged up beyond their capacity to
pay, and the only thing left to do was default and deleverage. As lending
slowed and defaults began to rise, the destruction of money outpaced the
creation of money. This is what led to the deflationary environment that
occurred during the financial crisis and is still in play to a small degree
today. Less money in the economy means prices of assets have to fall, and fall
they did. Home prices plummeted as did prices of other goods across the board.
In sum, bank
lending is the primary driver of monetary expansion and contraction. As
illustrated, the creation of money is not confined to the actions of the
Federal Reserve. Each one of us has participated in the creation and
destruction of money in some way or another, aided by the underlying fractional
reserve banking system.
We have only
explored the tip of the iceberg and will continue to work our way towards a
more detailed and accurate understanding of the dynamics at work within our
economy. The next piece will build on this basic understanding of commercial
bank money creation and discuss how the Fed's policies may be inappropriate for
the task at hand.
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