Russia may
have made its most significant foreign-policy gain in the entire post-cold war
era when the Kremlin decisively moved in on Tuesday to offer a rescue package for the
beleagured Ukrainian economy and may have taken a leap forward in leading that
country into the Eurasian Union, which Moscow is planning as the umbrella
organization bringing together the former Soviet republics.
This is
undoubtedly one of President Vladimir Putin’s finest hours in the Kremlin. The
point is, if Ukraine moves into the Western orbit, Russia falls back on its
back foot in strategic terms; without Ukraine Eurasian Union remains grossly
inadequate; with Ukraine the Eurasian Union all but restores the Soviet Union
in politico-economic terms.
Unsurprisingly,
the West is aghast, and the mood
of the cold warriors can’t be uglier than this. Russia is beating the West at
its own game of cheque book diplomacy. No need for Russian tanks to roll into
the streets of Kiev as in 1956 in Budapest.
The
European Union foreign ministers have unceremoniously come down from the high
pedestal from where they preached to Ukraine on the virtues of human rights
record and western liberal democracy and pleaded it is prepared
to sign an Association at a special summit this very week if only President
Yanukovich is willing. But it seems a case of too little too late.
Washington
too is left mumbling for words, not knowing
what to say. All that the West is left with now are the protestors from western
regions of Ukraine on the Kiev city square. Can the CIA push a color revolution
through? This remains the only ray of hope.
The
poignancy lies in this that neither the US nor the EU has any money (or the
political will to find the money) to help ease Ukraine’s staggering debt burden. Whereas,
Russia is offering financial support of $15 billion and the slashing of the
price of natural gas sold to Ukraine by one-third and adjusting the outstanding
debt of $2 billion that Kiev owes to Gazprom for past transactions.
Besides,
trade agreements have been signed whereby Moscow has given duty concessions to
Ukrainian exports to the Russian market. A summit of the Eurasian Union
Council is due to be held later this month in Russia and it is worth watching
how yesterday’s developments morph into the integration processes of the
post-Soviet space under Moscow’s leadership.
Equally,
there is a ‘China angle’ to all this. Yanukovich paid a 4-day visit to Beijing
and there is every sign that China has also offered to help Ukraine. The
Chinese report on Yanukovich’s meeting with President Xi Jinping brought out
the flavor of a strategic relationship in the making, which would have major
consequences for Eurasian politics. Interestingly, on his return journey from
Beijing, Yanukovich had met Putin briefly in Sochi, presumably to fill him in
on his talks with Xi and to
make it clear he keeps Moscow on board.
It is too
early to say whether the pattern of Russia-China coordination that is evident
over Middle Eastern issues could repeat elsewhere. Certainly, Russia’s
developing ties with Vietnam helps China indirectly by keeping
the Americans at bay and, on the other hand, China’s ties with Ukraine would
help create space for the latter from having to depend excessively on the West,
which is something that suits Moscow as well.
Read more at:
http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2013/12/18/russia-trumps-us-in-ukraine-poker-game/
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