By Alvaro
Vargas Llosa
With just under 47 percent of the vote, former
President Michelle Bachelet obtained a resounding victory in the first round in
November’s elections in Chile, inflicting a heavy blow to the right and opening
the door to a new left-wing government that, unlike the last time she was in
office, will be based on a coalition that includes members of the Communist
Party. She also went on to win the second round in mid-December and is now the
president-elect.
This is the
culmination of a process that has left observers dumbfounded. Chile’s outgoing
center-right government under President Piñera has been among the most
successful in the country’s history, if we judge it by the statistics that serve
to measure these things. And yet the center-right has been going through a
traumatic identity crisis. Its candidate, Evelyn Matthei, who obtained 25
percent of the vote, was the third figure to lead that ideological family after
two previous candidates had to drop out. Several outsiders also ran in this
election. One of them, Franco Parisi, a populist economist who comes from the
right, took many votes from Matthei, who represented the well-established
parties National Renovation and the Independent Democratic Union.
A quick look at
some of the achievements of President Piñera is enough to place him among the
best performers in Latin America. The economy grew at an average rate of more
than 5 percent in his first three years and is growing more than 4 percent this
year—against a 3.3 average rate under Bachelet’s previous government. Poverty
has been reduced to 14 percent of the population and almost one million jobs
have been created. Under Piñera’s predecessor, unemployment had grown
substantially. Behind this success is an investment rate that nears 25 percent
of GDP, four points higher than in the days of Bachelet. Foreign investors
poured US$ 30 billion into the country last year, almost half of what Brazil
took in despite an economy that is nine times bigger.
So, what is
happening? Mauricio Rojas, a well-known analyst, thinks this is “the best and
least loved government in our history.” He points to “the malaise of success”,
a material progress that multiplies expectations a lot faster than the ability
to meet them. I agree. I watched a similar process in Spain, where a large
middle class that was the child of the booming post-Franco economy eventually
became complacent and placed on the system redistributive and egalitarian
demands that were incompatible with a prosperous society. The result was, in
part, Spain’s recent crisis.
Could the same
happen in Chile, whose progress has made it an emblem of the emerging world?
Much will depend on Bachelet, who as a candidate has given in to several
demands from the radical left, including proposing major changes to the
Constitution, universal free education, a tax raise and the creation of a
public pension system, among others. Whether she will go ahead with this is
uncertain since her majority in Congress falls short of what is required for a
constitutional change. But one thing is clear: Her government will be under
more pressure than any other since the return of democracy in 1990 to reverse
course on many of the institutional factors that have made Chile a envied
liberal democracy. A significant segment of the middle class seems to have
fallen for the siren song of old-fashioned socialism.
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