Timothy Geithner says borrowing more from China to finance tax cuts for the most affluent Americans would be irresponsible.
The Treasury secretary has it backward. The real question is whether Beijing is willing to double down on a nation whose balance sheet makesItaly look good. Holding $1.2 trillion of U.S. debt is a fast-growing risk to China.
Traders have a theory about why the euro is reasonably stable amid a broadening debt crisis: Asian central banks are converting proceeds from recent intervention moves into other currencies. “Asian central banks” has become a euphemism for China, whose reserves now exceed $3 trillion.
China is making deals with nations such as Brazil to conduct trade in yuan. It’s also making noises about the Federal Reserve’s zero interest-rate policies and Congress playing games with the debt limit. If you were managing China’s reserves, how many more dollars would you really want in this environment?
Heck, China is even loading up on Spanish debt these days. “China’s open admission of continual purchases of European debt shows it doesn’t consider the U.S. any safer,” says Simon Grose-Hodge, head of investment strategy for South Asia at LGT Group in Singapore.
America’s Sugar Daddy
The risk that America’s sugar daddy is getting fed up hasn’t escaped U.S. officials. It’s probably no coincidence that Fed officials are talking about dismantling their quantitative- easing program, while Washington is homing in on the deficit.
This enough-is-enough dynamic was on display last week as the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, the BRICS economies, met in the Chinese resort city of Sanya. Chinese President Hu Jintao called for reform of our international monetary and financial systems. A commentary by Zheng Xinli may offer a clearer view of what Hu meant.
Zheng, an executive vice president of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, wrote in China Daily that the “root cause” of the financial crisis was U.S. “long-term abuse” of sovereign credit. He called for the Group of 20 Nations to devise a multicurrency system.
The U.S. takes its AAA credit for granted, knowing that neither Moody’s Investors Service nor Standard & Poor’s has the bravado to downgrade it. Yet we may now be observing the flipside of the 1971 musing by Nixon-era Treasury Secretary John Connally that the dollar is our currency, but your problem. The dollar may soon be Washington’s problem.