Greece's Government Loses Support
“Greece's main private and public sector unions, GSEE and ADEDY, have called on workers and the elderly — whose pensions have been cut — to rally in central Athens. Until now dissent has been muted among the ruling Socialists. But Greeks have staged nightly protests for a fortnight in the capital's Syntagma Square to hurl abuse at the parliament building, with numbers hitting over 80,000 on Sunday. Many PASOK backbench members of parliament appear to be taking fright. Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou suffered a roasting when he presented the medium-term plan to senior party members at a meeting that lasted about 12 hours. Greece, which has a huge budget deficit but has been frozen out of debt markets for a year, seems to have no alternative but to depend on the EU and IMF and accept their demands. One PASOK lawmaker, Paris Koukoulopoulos, recognised that the minister's report on achievements so far had been sincere. "But what's important is that we have emptied the banks of deposits and filled the city squares with people," he said. Newspapers reported that Papandreou had ordered his finance minister to take the attacks on the chin and allow the backbenchers to vent their rage, in the hope that they will cool down eventually and vote for the plan. The government wants parliament to decide on the plan before the end of this month. Many PASOK lawmakers would risk losing their seats if early elections were held, meaning that they may have second thoughts about voting against it.” |
And yet, two more defections have just taken place. One deputy resigned, while another announced he would vote against the measures. This means PASOK now has only 154 votes out of 300 left. Meanwhile, the enraged masses on Athens' streets are attempting to cordon off parliament in order to sabotage the parliamentary debate and vote. According to Reuters:
“Greek protesters vowed on Tuesday to cordon off parliament to prevent deputies from debating new austerity measures, and unions said they would bring the country to a halt in a national strike on June 15. [it isn't at a halt already? ed.] Pressure is growing on Prime Minister George Papandreou's government, which is trying to muster support for a five-year plan that its international lenders say is crucial for them to extend more funding and enable Athens to avoid default. European Union leaders and the European Central Bank are also split over whether private bondholders should share the burden of a fresh bailout plan. Papandreou's Socialist party is due to submit its mid-term plan for discussion in parliament on Wednesday, with the goal of passing it later this month. But protesters staging daily demonstrations that have swelled to tens of thousands in Athens' Syntagma square in front of parliament said they would encircle the building. "Now that the government is putting the medium term austerity programme to vote, we (will) encircle the parliament, we (will) gather and we (will) stay at Syntagma," the self-named People's Assembly of Syntagma Square said in a statement. "Our first stop is the general strike of June 15th. We won't stop until they withdraw it." Public sector union ADEDY, representing half a million workers, said they would march on parliament during Wednesday's strike and join non-union demonstrators in peaceful protest. "The mid-term plan must not be voted. We want them to change their minds and throw the plan in the bin," ADEDY Secretary General Ilias Iliopoulos told Reuters.” |
What all of this illustrates is something we first mentioned about a year ago: the necessary reforms will turn out not to be politically doable. It is almost comical to see the eurocrats in acrimonious debate over how to proceed while the intended victim, err, bailout recipient, is apparently descending into chaos. One should note here that while one must have sympathy for ordinary Greeks suffering through an economic depression, the striking masses appear to have a very muddled perception of what they can possibly achieve. Here is what will not happen, regardless of their protests: there will be no more 'free money' from the State. Perhaps the hope is that Greece will simply revert to default mode, as has been the case for roughly half of the time it has existed as a modern nation state, then return to the drachma and devalue its way back to 'prosperity'. However, this would mean that all Greek savers and depositors would lose a large percentage of their wealth. It would also mean that the country would take one giant step closer to becoming relegated to third world status – as there is no 'prosperity' that can be bought with devaluation. We have to drag up Argentina again as a warning. At one time Argentina was the 5th wealthiest country on the planet in GDP per capita terms. Its governments have eventually turned the country into what is now a hyperinflation-prone and corrupt backwater – a road that was paved with devaluations and defaults, so perhaps avoiding a similar fate should be at least considered.
Readers may well ask 'so what should be done'? Clearly the creditors will have to accept a haircut. Adding more debt atop the existing mountain of debt isn't going to solve anything. Austerity as such is a necessary and positive policy, but it needs to be accompanied by measures that support the revival of the economy. We want to quote Dr. Jim Walker of Asianomics on the subject, as he has put it very succinctly in a recent missive:
“Adding more debt to a nation with contracting production activity and shrinking income flows is, to put it diplomatically, an invitation to an even deeper condition of debt distress down the road. If there was good reason to presume the new debt will spark production growth and expanding income flows in Greece, it might be a different story. Unfortunately, we have no reason to believe the new subsidized loans that are currently under discussion will have anything to do with jump starting private sector growth in Greece. Indeed, since the condition for a second round of subsidized lending to Greece was the acceptance by Prime Minister Papandreou of an additional 78 billion euros in fiscal cuts, with no discussion about how to make it easier for the private sector to mobilize the productive resources (such as meaningful deregulation or growth inducing tax policy changes) that will be freed up by further fiscal austerity, odds are nominal income flows in Greece will shrink at an even more disturbing pace.” |
Meaningful deregulation or growth-friendly tax policy changes both seem to be out of reach. The austerity packages after all not only prescribe spending cuts, but also tax increases. The latter are clearly a disincentive to private sector activity. Meanwhile, as a member of the EU, Greece has become a recipient of a great many subsidies, while at the same time being bound by the 100ds of thousands of regulations invented by the eurocracy in recent years (some 290,000 new regulations over the last decade alone). This is a typical welfare state type dependency, only at one remove from the citizen-State relationship. In this case it describes the nation state-to-supranational bureaucracy relationship. The problem with this is that it has become impossible for people to help themselves – the entrepreneurial spirit is simply crushed by this thicket of regulations. This is by no means a problem particular to Greece – but in Greece's case it is now a huge obstacle that stands in the way of recovery.