The Price of Abandoning The Gold Standard
By Charles Kadlec
Forty years ago President Richard Nixon severed the final link between the dollar and gold. We have been living with the consequences of that colossal error ever since.
We were promised that breaking the link between the dollar and gold would free the Federal Reserve to smooth out costly recessions, provide high employment and strong economic growth. Internationally, the devaluation of the dollar was supposed to reduce our trade deficit and improve the international competitiveness of American workers and businesses. And, because trade was only one-tenth of the U.S. economy, all of this could be done while maintaining price stability. Each and every one of these promises has been broken.
Since Nixon killed the gold standard the unemployment rate has averaged over 6% and we have suffered the three worst recessions since the end of World War II. The unemployment rate averaged 8.5% in 1975, almost 10% in 1982 and has been above 8.8% for more than two years, with little evidence of any improvement ahead.
This performance is horrendous compared with the post-World War II gold-standard era, which lasted from 1947 to 1970. During those 21 years of economic ups and downs the unemployment rate averaged less than 5% and never rose above 7%. Growth, too, has slowed. Since 1971 real economic expansion has averaged 2.9% a year--more than a full percentage point slower than the 4% growth rate during the post-World War II gold-standard period.
When compounded over 40 years, 1% slower growth under the paper dollar system has had a mind-boggling impact on our incomes and the size of the economy. At 3% growth the U.S. economy is about $8 trillion smaller than it would have been had we continued to experience the average growth rate prior to Nixon severing the link between the dollar and gold. That implies that median family income today would be about $70,000, or nearly 50% higher than it is today.
It would also mean that the tax base--for federal, state and local governments-- would be approximately 50% bigger, generating a bounty of tax revenues that would make the current and projected fiscal challenges manageable without severe spending cuts or growth-killing tax increases on working Americans.
What about our competitive position? During the past 40 years the dollar has fallen in value by more than 70% against the euro/German mark and the Japanese yen. Yet U.S. net exports have fallen from a modest surplus in 1971 to a $400 billion-plus deficit.
The dollar we use today is worth less than two dimes in buying power compared with the pre-Nixon dollar. And with little reason to believe that the dollar will maintain even this paltry value, the average American family is left with no meaningful way to save for its children's education or its own retirement. We experience all of this as financial insecurity and well-grounded anxiety about the future.
By contrast, a gold standard is extraordinarily good at maintaining the buying power of the dollar. From 1948 to 1967 inflation averaged less than 2% per year. Interest rates were low and stable, with the yield on AAA corporate bonds averaging less than 4%. Moreover, if Nixon and his successors had maintained the promise that a dollar was worth 1/35 of an ounce of gold, a barrel of oil today would sell for less than $2.50.
That's right, the whole notion of an energy crisis is a grand illusion created by the fall in the paper dollar against gold, oil and all other goods and services over the past 40 years.
Finally, since Nixon killed the gold standard the world has suffered from 12 financial crises, beginning with the oil shock of 1973 and culminating in the financial crisis of 2008–09 and now the debt crisis in Europe and the growing deficit crisis in the U.S. Conversely, between 1947 and 1967 there was only one currency crisis, involving the British pound, and no major bank failures or Wall Street bailouts in the U.S.
We have paid dearly for Nixon's colossal error. But this abhorrent deviation from a sound dollar can be corrected. The country--and the world--awaits the political leader who truly understands that making the dollar as good as gold is vital to the prosperity, security and liberty of the American people, and who can therefore lead the country and the world forward to a 21st-century gold standard.