Saturday, September 3, 2011

Acid predictions



It wasn’t long ago a PNAS study led by Stefan Rahmstorf had come out claiming sea level rise is “accelerating”. This of course was followed by the mainstream media jumping on the global warming bandwagon and trumpeting doom and gloom would strike sooner than we ever thought, maybe even before we die.

Unfortunately, the acceleration has been in the opposite direction, thus making the authors of the PNAS study look just a bit foolish.

The latest NASA satellite data show that sea levels have dropped 6 mm over the last year – the biggest drop ever recorded since satellite data has been taken. This is hardly the kind of acceleration Rahmstorf had in mind. You’d think the media would be falling all over themselves to report this good news. They have not. Only a tiny few German media outlets have reported the plummeting sea level news.

It’s due to a ”weather shift”!

Der Spiegel rolled out a report called: Weather Shift Drops Global Sea Level, authored by Axel Bojanowski, hat-tip Dirk Maxeiner here. Caution: don’t be fooled into thinking Der Spiegel writers have become sceptical. To the contrary, they are cleverly, indirectly, blaming global warming for the “peculiar” sea level drop.

Global warming, you see, leads to weather shifts, which then leads to sea level drop. Hence global warming leads to sea level drop. Of course Der Spiegel will never admit this is what they are claiming, but they do indeed want you to believe it’s all because of “unusual freak weather” (which started when humans started driving SUVs).

"The eastern Pacific heated by up to 10°C, huge quantities of water evaporated – and then later the mass of water fell to the ground via numerous storms over South America and later over Australia during the La Niña period.”

As is often claimed with temperature, sea level drop is now weather and sea level rise is climate. To Der Spiegel’s credit, Bojanowski at least admits that sea level rise has slowed down (emphasis added):
However since 1993, the oceans have been measured by satellites. They have detected a rise of 3 mm per year.  During the last eight years, the rate of increase has slowed down.”

Leading German tabloid Bild here also expressed shock that sea levels have dropped by more than half a centimetre over the last year. Here, Bild blames the ENSO (er, weather) for the sea level drop.
Over the last 12 months, more precipitation than usual poured down over the continents, for example the destructive flood in Australia. The blame for this: the especially pronounced weather phenomena El Niño and La Niña.”

German sceptics mock bogus ”accelerating” sea level claim

Germany’s online auto-reporter.net expresses doubts about the coming climate catastrophe, citing that back in the 1980s Germans were projecting the end of the forests due to acid rain. 25 years later the forests are as healthy as they have ever been.  Auto.reporter.net questions the supposed sea level rise:

"It is supposed to be rising rapidly and submerging many countries. Now scientists have determined that sea level is sinking. [...] The causes have yet to be determined. Scientists had expected a continuous increase.
What can we learn from that? That scientists can never exactly know what is happening. And this is the case concerning alleged man-made climate change. It is foolhardy when people think they can impact the climate over 100 years. The political target of limiting the temperature increase to 2°C  is haphazardly selected. [...]  We’ll probably laugh about the climate change discussion in 20 or 30 years just as we laugh today over forest die-off, which in reality never came to pass.”

Finally German science publicist Dirk Maxeiner here simply could not contain his urge to mock the alarmists:

"Global sea level has dropped by more than half a centimetre over the last 12 months. That equals 5 metres of sea level drop over the next 1000 years – at least that’s what my computer simulation shows. Now how on earth are the island states supposed to cope with all this expanding land? What a catastrophe! We have to immediately form a special commission charged with the task of managing the great transformation of these regions and setting down ecological ."

The last waltz

A Tale of Two Declines
 Even if the economy were to fix itself overnight, we'd still face sincere cultural challenges.
By Mark Steyn

I was on a very long flight the other day and, to get me through it, I had two books: the new bestseller Of Thee I Zing by Laura Ingraham, and a book I last read twenty years ago, The Radetzky March by Joseph Roth. The former is the latest hit from one of America’s most popular talk radio hosts; the latter is an Austrian novel from 1932 by a fellow who drank himself to death just before the Second World War, which, if you’re planning on drinking yourself to death, is a better pretext than most. Don’t worry, I’ll save the Germanic alcoholic guy for a couple of paragraphs, although the two books are oddly related.

Of Thee I Zing’s subtitle is “America’s Cultural Decline: From Muffin Tops To Body Shots.” If you are sufficiently culturally aware to know what a “muffin top” and a “body shot” are (and incidentally, if you don’t have time to master all these exciting new trends, these two can be combined into one convenient “muffin shot”), you may not think them the most pressing concerns as the Republic sinks beneath its multitrillion-dollar debt burden. But, as Miss Ingraham says, “Even if our economic and national security challenges disappeared overnight, we’d still have to climb out of the cultural abyss into which we’ve tumbled.”

Actually, I think I’d go a little further than the author on that. I’m a great believer that culture trumps economics. Every time the government in Athens calls up the Germans and says, okay, we’ve burned through the last bailout, time for the next one, Angela Merkel understands all too well that the real problem in Greece is not the Greek finances but the Greek people. Even somnolent liberal columnists grasp this: a recent Thomas Friedman column in the New York Times was headlined, “Can Greeks Become Germans?” I think we all know the answer to that. Any society eventually winds up with the finances you’d expect. So think of our culture as one almighty muffin shot, with America as a giant navel filled with the cheap tequila of our rising debt and#… #no, wait, this metaphor’s getting way out of hand.

These are difficult issues for social conservatives to write about. When we venture into this terrain, we’re invariably dismissed as uptight squares who can’t get any action. That happens to be true in my case, but Laura Ingraham has the advantage of being a “pretty girl,” as disgraced Congressman Charlie Rangel made the mistake of calling her on TV the other day in an interview that went hilariously downhill thereafter. So, she has a little more credibility on this turf than I would. She opens with a lurid account of a recent visit to a north Virginia mall — zombie teens texting, a thirtysomething metrosexual having his eyebrows threaded, a fiftysomething cougar spilling out of her tube top, grade-schoolers in the latest “prostitot” fashions — and then embarks on a lively tour of American cultural levers, from schools to social media to churches to Hollywood. If there is a common theme in the various rubble of cultural ruin, it’s the urge to enter adolescence ever earlier and leave it later and later, if at all. So we have skanky tweens “dry humping” at middle-school dances, and an ever greater proportion of “men” in their thirties living at home with their parents.

Adolescence, like retirement, is an invention of the modern age. If the extension of retirement into a multi-decade government-funded vacation is largely a function of increased life expectancy, the prolongation of adolescence seems to derive from the bleak fact that, without an efficient societal conveyor belt to move you on, it appears to be the default setting of huge swathes of humanity. It was striking, during the Hurricane Irene frenzy, to hear the Federal Emergency Management Agency refer to itself repeatedly as “the federal family.” If Big Government is a “family,” with the bureaucracy as its parents, why be surprised that the citizens are content to live as eternal adolescents?

Perhaps the saddest part of the book is Ingraham’s brisk tour of recent romantic ballads. Exhibit A, Enrique Iglesias:

"Please excuse me, I don’t mean to be rude
But tonight I’m f**king you . . ."

 Well, at least he said “excuse me,” which is more than this young swain did:

"Take my order ’cause your body like a carry out
Let me walk into your body until it’s lights out."

Lovely:  I am so hot for you I look on you as a Burger King drive-thru.  That’s what the chicks dig. That’s what you’ll be asking the band to play at your silver wedding anniversary as you tell the young ’uns that they don’t write ’em like they used to. Even better, this exquisite love song is sung not by some bling-dripping braggart hoodlum of the rap fraternity but by the quintessential child-man of contemporary pop culture, ex-Mouseketeer Justin Timberlake.

It’s not the vulgarity or the crassness or even the grunting moronic ugliness, but something more basic: the absence of tenderness. A song such as “It Had To Be You” or “The Way You Look Tonight” presupposes certain courtship rituals. If a society no longer has those, it’s not surprising that it can no longer produce songs to embody them: After all, a great love ballad is, to a certain extent, aspirational; you hope to have a love worthy of such a song. A number like “Carry Out” is enough to make you question whether the fundamental things really do apply as time goes by.

Yet one of the curious features of a hypersexualized society is that it becomes paradoxically sexless and joyless. Guys who confidently bellow along with Enrique’s “F**king You” no longer quite know how to ask a girl for a chocolate malt at the soda fountain. It’s hardly surprising that, as Miss Ingraham reports, the formerly fringe activity of computer dating has now gone mainstream on an industrial scale. And, even then, as a couple of young ladies happened to mention to me after various recent encounters through Match.com and the like, an alarming number of chaps would rather see you naked on their iPhones Anthony Weiner–style than actually get you naked in their bachelor pads. I was reminded of The Children Of Men, set in an infertile world, in which P.D. James’s characters, liberated from procreation, increasingly find sex too much trouble.

Laura Ingraham’s book is a rollicking read. But, as I said, I picked it up after a re-immersion in The Radetzky March by Joseph Roth, a melancholy portrait of the decline of the Habsburg Empire seen through the eyes of three generations of minor nobility and imperial civil servants in the years before the Great War swept away an entire world order and its assumptions of permanence. Roth was a man of the post-war era, yet he could not write his story without an instinctive respect for the lost rituals of a doomed world: The novel takes its title from the great Strauss march that the town band plays in front of the District Commissioner’s home every Sunday. As much as the Habsburgs, we too are invested in the illusions of permanence, and perhaps one day it will fall to someone to write a bittersweet novel about the final years of the republic. But we will not even enjoy the consolations of a Strauss march. It doesn’t have quite the same ring if you call the book “Carry Out” or “F**king You.”

Friday, September 2, 2011

Big time crooks

Buffett's Berkshire Owes $1 Billion In Back Taxes
 
By Newsmax editor

Billionaire investor Warren Buffett triggered a major debate over taxes recently when he wrote in The New York Times that he should be paying more to the federal government. He called on Washington lawmakers to up tax rates on the rich.

But it turns out that Buffett’s own company, Berkshire Hathaway, has had every opportunity to pay more taxes over the last decade. Instead, it’s been mired in a protracted legal battle with the Internal Revenue Service over a bill that one analyst estimates may total $1 billion.

Yes, that’s right: while Warren Buffett complains that the rich aren’t paying their fair share his own company has been fighting tooth and nail to avoid paying a larger share.

The story of Berkshire's years-long tax battle, which is generally known in business circles, took on new life this week when a group called Americans for Limited Government (ALG) reported that, according to Berkshire Hathaway’s own annual report, the company is embroiled in an ongoing standoff over its tax bills.

That report, in turn, was cited in an editorial in The New York Post.

“Obvious question: If Buffett really thinks he and his 'mega-rich friends' should pay higher taxes, why doesn’t his firm fork over what it already owes under current rates?” the Post opined.

“Likely answer: He cares more about shilling for President Obama -- who’s practically made socking “millionaires and billionaires” his re-election theme song -- than about kicking in more himself.”

Using only publicly-available documents, a certified public accountant (CPA) detailed Berkshire Hathaway’s tax problems to ALG. AlG President Bill Wilson cites the company’s own 2010 annual report, which states at one point that “At December 31, 2010… net unrecognized tax benefits were $1,005 million”, or about $1 billion.”

“Unrecognized tax benefits represent the company’s potential future obligation to the IRS and other taxing authorities,” ALG explained in its report. “They have to be recorded in the company’s financial statements.”

“The notation means that Berkshire Hathaway’s own auditors have probably said that $1 billion is more likely than not owed to the government,” the ALG report explained.

That $1 billion represents about 0.2 percent of the company’s $372 billion in total assets, according to ALG.

As Wilson points out, “On one hand Buffett advocates for paying more taxes, but when it comes to his own company’s taxes, he has gone through great lengths to pay less. That’s rich.”

Here's the key section from Berkshire's report:

“We anticipate that we will resolve all adjustments proposed by the U.S. Internal Revenue Service (‘IRS’) for the 2002 through 2004 tax years at the IRS Appeals Division within the next 12 months," the report states. "The IRS has completed its examination of our consolidated U.S. federal income tax returns for the 2005 and 2006 tax years and the proposed adjustments are currently being reviewed by the IRS Appeals Division process. The IRS is currently auditing our consolidated U.S. federal income tax returns for the 2007 through 2009 tax years.”

Wilson also points to a prior tax fight the company fought. “Apparently, this is not the first time that Berkshire Hathaway has tangled with the IRS. They fought a 14-year battle over the dividends received deduction. That case was just resolved in 2005,” Wilson reports..

“Although the prior case was settled in Buffett’s favor, it demonstrates a decades-long pattern of behavior by Buffett to minimize his taxes. That’s the important part of the story,” Wilson writes.

And Buffett this week is at the center of another tax controversy, according to The Wall Street Journal. His recent decision to invest in Bank of America "represents another tax-avoidance triumph for the Berkshire chief executive," the Journal wrote in an editorial Wednesdy.

It turns out that U.S. corporations are subject to a top federal income tax rate of 35 percent, the second highest in the world. But Berkshire won't pay anything close to that on their investment in BofA preferred shares.

"Berkshire will hold the investment in a property-casualty insurance subsidiary. Such corporations can exclude from taxation 59.5% of the dividends they receive from an investment in another corporation," the Journal reported. "This exclusion is intended to prevent double- or even triple-taxation as money is earned by one company, paid to another company and then ultimately paid out to shareholders. The policy makes sense; we only wonder why the exclusion isn't 100%.

"With the exclusion for Mr. Buffett and his fellow shareholders, Berkshire will enjoy an effective tax rate of 14.175% on the $300 million in dividends it will receive each year from Bank of America," the Journal reported.

These new revelations about Buffett's tax practices have only furthered enraged conservatives at the hypocrisy being shown by the famed "Oracle of Omaha."

Writing in the conservative website Human Events, John Hayward added that analysts should look at the "value of the time IRS agents have invested trying to collect it – they don’t work cheap, and we pay their salaries – and the resources Buffett’s people have invested fighting back. All of which would have been saved if Buffett simply practiced what he preached, and willingly handed over his fortune to the brilliant and compassionate 'leaders' he commands the rest of us to support without resistance.

"Warren Buffett is no different from the other liars and frauds orbiting Barack Obama. His hypocrisy just runs billions of dollars deeper. When it comes to 'shared sacrifice,' you do the sacrificing, and they do the sharing," Hayward writes.

This is only the beginning


It's fun to smash things

And in Britain, there is little civilisation left to stop you

By T. Dalrymple

Only the wilfully blind could have been surprised by the scale or ferocity of the riots that have engulfed Britain in the past week. Unfortunately, most of the country’s political and intellectual class have been wilfully blind for years, in a state of the most abject denial; a brief walk in any of our cities should have been enough to tell them all that they needed to know.

How anyone could have missed the aggressive malignity inscribed in the faces and manner of so many young men in Britain is a mystery to me. Perhaps, like Dr Watson, our political and intellectual class saw but did not observe; and they did not observe because they lacked the moral courage to attempt anything but appeasement.

The vulpine lope or swagger, the face that regards eye contact with a stranger as a challenge to be met, the adoption of fashions that are known to signify aggression and dangerousness, the grotesquely inflated self-esteem combined with a total incapacity for doing anything constructive: all could and should have sounded an alarm in our politicians. Not only is our population ageing, but a significant proportion of such young people as we have engendered are like this, which no doubt helps to explain why we have had to resort to the importation of foreign unskilled labour while maintaining high levels of domestic unemployment, especially among the young. It is as difficult to employ a hoodie as to hug him.

No one has paid serious attention to the mentality and culture of these young men (using the word culture in its broad, anthropological sense). The morality is that of Satan on his expulsion from heaven: evil, be thou my good. The aesthetics follow the morality. Ugliness, be thou my beauty.

 The young men of whom I speak admire rather than abjure criminality. I first noticed this 20 years ago when young men came to me as patients who had tattooed on their cheek the blue spot that former inmates of borstals used as a sign of graduation, without their ever having been to borstal themselves. They not only wanted to appear tough, but were suffering from crime-envy. They wanted to be thought criminal: it was the new respectability. Sacha Baron Cohen turned gangsta-chic into a joke, a matter of idle curiosity, like watching an animal in a zoo, but it was not a joke to those who had to live with it; nor are our slums zoological gardens for our amusement and delectation, as we now see only too clearly.

Terms such as ‘unrest’ and ‘disaffection’, which trip so lightly off the tongue of those who do not want to face a far more disturbing reality, do not explain the behaviour of the rioters. It is obvious, for instance, that if there were any justice in the world — at least if justice is the right return for voluntary effort and conduct — the young rioters would be much worse off than they are. Their problem is not that they have been given too little, but that they have deserved nothing.

The riots are not a protest: the shooting of Mark Duggan — the full elucidation of which will no doubt take a long time and will remain forever the contested subject of paranoid rumour, whatever the eventual findings — was scarcely even a pretext. It is perfectly possible that the shooting will turn out to have been yet another example of the bullying incompetence of the police, but it goes without saying that, even so, young black men are much more likely to be shot by each other than by the police; there was once a never-to-be-forgotten scene in our intensive care unit when two young drug-dealers, who had shot each other without inflicting death, were on life-support machines opposite each other while under arrest, guarded from each other’s henchmen by the police. No riots of protest followed this glorious incident or many similar ones, some of which ended in death.

The evident glee of the rioters, celebrating and smiling triumphantly among the devastation they wrought, as if in victory, is testimony not to their outraged feelings, but to the strength of the destructive urge that lies within us all and has always to be kept under firm control. I remember as a child the sheer joy of smashing a radio on our lawn with a croquet mallet, a joy that was quite unrelated to any personal animus against the radio, which could not possibly have done me any harm. I loved the destruction for its own sake and wanted it to continue for as long as possible, smashing the parts into dust long after there was no possibility of repair, feeling that I was almost performing a duty in being so thorough in my annihilation of them. And the first riot, in Panama, that I ever attended — reporting on it for this magazine — taught me that rioting is fun, that the supposed reason for it is soon forgotten in the ecstatic pleasure of destruction. Talleyrand said that no one knew how sweet life could be who had not lived under the Ancien Régime; one might add that no one has known unalloyed joy who has not heard the tinkle of plate glass, or seen flames lick up a building, in the alleged furtherance of a cause. Incidentally, part of the sweetness of life under the Ancien Régime was the knowledge that it was far from sweet for everyone; and the imagined distress of the owners of the property that rioters destroy is part of the joy of rioting. 

In Liberia during the civil war, I saw in Monrovia the meticulous dismantlement of every last vestige of civilisation. The hospitals, for example, had not been destroyed by bazookas or bombs in fighting, but by a kind of obsessive vandalism by the rebels who had swept through them. Every castor had been cut from every trolley; every item of equipment had been damaged irrecoverably. In the Centennial Hall, the principal ceremonial building in the country, where presidents were inaugurated, I saw the body of a Steinway grand piano resting on the ground, surrounded by its legs, which had been carefully and no doubt laboriously sawn off. The library of the university had been ransacked, not to steal the books (I doubt that the vandals were great readers), but for the sheer pleasure of assisting entropy in its great work of returning the world to chaos. Incidentally, it is not unknown for librarians in Britain to react against the orderliness of their institutions in a similar way; but one can easily imagine the joy, the uplifted hearts, of the vandals in Monrovia as they went about their painstaking destruction.

 After relatively minor riots in England some ten or 12 years ago, I found myself on the radio with a junior minister who spoke of them as if they were a genuine form of protest or commentary upon the social situation of the rioters, a real attempt to bring about an improvement in their situation. The tragedy of these riots, she said, was that they destroyed property and amenities in the areas in which the rioters themselves lived. I asked her whether she thought it would be better if the rioters came to her area and destroyed property and amenities there. The fact that the rioters only made their own environment worse was quite beside the point. Bakunin might have been in error when he said that the destructive urge was also a creative one; but he would have been right if he had said that the urge was omnipresent in the human heart, and gave great joy when given way to.

The urge to cruelty is not much different in this respect. I doubt there are many people who have never in their lives experienced the pleasure of inflicting some kind of pain on others, physical or mental, from sheer malice and delight in doing so. It is an urge that we overcome first by effort and then by habit.

It is one of the tasks of civilisation to tame our inherent savagery. But who, contemplating contemporary British culture, would recognise in it any civilising influence, or rather fail to recognise its opposite? It is a constant call to and celebration of degradation, not only physical but spiritual and emotional. A culture in which Amy Winehouse, with her militant vulgarity and self-indulgent stupidity, combined with a very minor talent, could be so extravagantly admired and feted, is not one to put up strong barriers against our baser instincts, desires and urges. On the contrary, that culture has long been a celebration of those very urges. He who pays the savage never gets rid of the savagery; and this is only the beginning.

The sound of a falling "settled" theory

 Science getting settled

 New, convincing evidence indicates global warming is caused by cosmic rays and the sun — not humans


by L. Salomon, Financial Post
The science is now all-but-settled on global warming, convincing new evidence demonstrates, but Al Gore, the IPCC and other global warming doomsayers won’t be celebrating. The new findings point to cosmic rays and the sun — not human activities — as the dominant controller of climate on Earth.
The research, published with little fanfare this week in the prestigious journal Nature, comes from über-prestigious CERN, the European Organization for Nuclear Research, one of the world’s largest centres for scientific research involving 60 countries and 8,000 scientists at more than 600 universities and national laboratories. CERN is the organization that invented the World Wide Web, that built the multi-billion dollar Large Hadron Collider, and that has now built a pristinely clean stainless steel chamber that precisely recreated the Earth’s atmosphere.
In this chamber, 63 CERN scientists from 17 European and American institutes have done what global warming doomsayers said could never be done — demonstrate that cosmic rays promote the formation of molecules that in Earth’s atmosphere can grow and seed clouds, the cloudier and thus cooler it will be. Because the sun’s magnetic field controls how many cosmic rays reach Earth’s atmosphere (the stronger the sun’s magnetic field, the more it shields Earth from incoming cosmic rays from space), the sun determines the temperature on Earth.
The hypothesis that cosmic rays and the sun hold the key to the global warming debate has been Enemy No. 1 to the global warming establishment ever since it was first proposed by two scientists from the Danish Space Research Institute, at a 1996 scientific conference in the U.K. Within one day, the chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Bert Bolin, denounced the theory, saying, “I find the move from this pair scientifically extremely naive and irresponsible.” He then set about discrediting the theory, any journalist that gave the theory cre dence, and most of all the Danes presenting the theory — they soon found themselves vilified, marginalized and starved of funding, despite their impeccable scientific credentials.
The mobilization to rally the press against the Danes worked brilliantly, with one notable exception. Nigel Calder, a former editor of The New Scientist who attended that 1996 conference, would not be cowed. Himself a physicist, Mr. Calder became convinced of the merits of the argument and a year later, following a lecture he gave at a CERN conference, so too did Jasper Kirkby, a CERN scientist in attendance. Mr. Kirkby then convinced the CERN bureaucracy of the theory’s importance and developed a plan to create a cloud chamber — he called it CLOUD, for “Cosmics Leaving OUtdoor Droplets.”
But Mr. Kirkby made the same tactical error that the Danes had — not realizing how politicized the global warming issue was, he candidly shared his views with the scientific community.
“The theory will probably be able to account for somewhere between a half and the whole of the increase in the Earth’s temperature that we have seen in the last century,” Mr. Kirkby told the scientific press in 1998, explaining that global warming may be part of a natural cycle in the Earth’s temperature.
The global warming establishment sprang into action, pressured the Western governments that control CERN, and almost immediately succeeded in suspending CLOUD. It took Mr. Kirkby almost a decade of negotiation with his superiors, and who knows how many compromises and unspoken commitments, to convince the CERN bureaucracy to allow the project to proceed. And years more to create the cloud chamber and convincingly validate the Danes’ groundbreaking theory.
Yet this spectacular success will be largely unrecognized by the general public for years — this column will be the first that most readers have heard of it — because CERN remains too afraid of offending its government masters to admit its success. Weeks ago, CERN formerly decided to muzzle Mr. Kirby and other members of his team to avoid “the highly political arena of the climate change debate,” telling them “to present the results clearly but not interpret them” and to downplay the results by “mak[ing] clear that cosmic radiation is only one of many parameters.” The CERN study and press release is written in bureaucratese and the version of Mr. Kirkby’s study that appears in the print edition of Nature censored the most eye-popping graph — only those who know where to look in an online supplement will see the striking potency of cosmic rays in creating the conditions for seeding clouds.
CERN, and the Danes, have in all likelihood found the path to the Holy Grail of climate science. But the religion of climate science won’t yet permit a celebration of the find.
Financial Post

Thursday, September 1, 2011

Something out of nothing

The Green Jobs Scam - and Confusion

By IAIN MURRAY

With the massive $787-billion stimulus bill including provisions to encourage the creation of "green jobs," Americans deserve an honest appraisal of how such green jobs will work.  So far, they aren't getting it. 

In fact, a recent statement by Al Gore shows just how much Americans are being misled on this issue.  Green jobs are a shell game, and we're falling for it.  In the Financial Times, on February 17, Gore, in an op ed co-authored with United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon, asserts that, "In the US, there are now more jobs in the wind industry than in the entire coal industry." 

But as Roger Pielke Jr of the University of Colorado points out, there is something wrong there.  In November 2008, the coal industry generated 155 million megawatt-hours of electricity, while wind generated only 1.3 million megawatt-hours.  If wind really does employ more people than coal, it is doing so at a huge cost to American efficiency, productivity, and competitiveness.

Of course, the wind industry does not employ more people.  Gore and Ban were flat out wrong in their assertion, which should make one question any assertions in Gore's An Inconvenient Truth, or any U.N. document, for that matter. 

As the Christian Science Monitor found out, the figure comes from an apples-and-oranges comparison.  An environmentalist blog had reported that the wind industry employed 85,000 people and the coal industry just 81,000. 

But the wind industry figure represented jobs as "varied as turbine component manufacturing, construction and installation of wind turbines, wind turbine operations and maintenance, legal and marketing services, and more," while the coal industry figure represented just coal miners.

Comparing apples to apples, the coal industry probably employs over 1.4 million people-and those workers are still over seven times as productive as the wind energy workers.

Moreover, when considering how much of the current boom in renewable energy is fueled by subsidies, it becomes clear that a large number of those wind industry jobs are temporary-engaged in the manufacture of parts for and construction of new wind farms.  Meanwhile, we have seemingly called a halt to the construction of new coal-fired power plants, just when the nation is facing a likely power generation shortage.

This problem is highlighted in a report from, of all people, The Sierra Club and the Teamsters union (among others).  "High Road or Low Road?" reveals that, "low pay is not uncommon" in green industries, that "wage rates at many wind and solar manufacturing facilities are below the national average," and suggests that wages for workers employed in the "green building" industry are also far lower than those of union members in other sectors.  Their proposed solution is to unionize these industries, but remember just how unproductive they are even at these low wages.  Replacing a coal job with a "green job" is likely to be a net loss to the economy, meaning further unemployment down the chain.

Other nations have already started down this road.  The German government found that green jobs could only benefit the economy as long as the country remained a net exporter of green technology.  The finding in "High Road or Low Road?" that "some U.S. wind and solar manufacturers have already begun to offshore production of components destined for U.S. markets to low-wage havens such as China and Mexico" should therefore be sobering for green jobs proponents. 

A forthcoming study from Dr Gabriel Calzada of the Instituto Juan de Mariana in Spain reveals an even greater problem.  For every green job created in Spain, 3.9 jobs have been lost as a result throughout the economy.  The author calls them "subprime jobs," with good reason.

When America is in recession, the last thing we can afford to do is destroy more jobs than we create in the name of "stimulus."  The American people deserve to hear the truth about "green jobs." Unfortunately, as long as Al Gore and his allies continue to have the loudest bullhorns, they won't.

Plundering the future


 The welfare state was always an illusion
 
By M. Milke

The latest deals to “save” American and Greek public finances—allowing those countries to put themselves into even deeper debt—should puncture the illusion the welfare state was ever a success. The fact is, it was always built on borrowed time and borrowed money.

That intergenerational sleight of hand worked for a while. Successive post-war generations went to the doctor, availed themselves of government services, built roads and enjoyed other partially debt-financed benefits. Problematically, they handed part of the bill for the same to future generations. It’s akin to buying an expensive home and handing the delayed mortgage payments to your kids when they turn eighteen. 

Greece is merely the most dramatic example of this intergenerational public finance “con job.” The recent European Union deal for Greece, where $109 billion Euros will be lent to tide that profligate country over yet again, is equivalent to $149 billion Cdn. Put another way, every Greek just borrowed another $13,847 Cdn.

To put the worldwide rise in government debt in some historical perspective, consider the debt trajectory of the U.S. and selected European countries since 1995. That’s about the time many Canadian governments began to grapple with our red ink problem.

In 1995, Greece’s net liabilities already amounted to 81 per cent of GDP. (A country’s net liabilities are arrived at by subtracting assets from liabilities; GDP is the value of a country’s economy).  Back then, Canada’s net-debt-to-GDP figure was 71 per cent; Italy stood at 99 per cent; France, Germany and the United Kingdom had net liabilities of 38 per cent, 30 per cent and 26 per cent respectively. Portugal’s was 24 per cent and the U.S. debt figure was 54 per cent of GDP.

Fast forward to 2011 and all the countries on that list are deeper in debt as a percentage of GDP, save Canada: Greece: 125 per cent; Italy: 101 per cent; France 60 per cent; Germany: 50 per cent; Portugal: 76 per cent; the United Kingdom: 62 per cent; the United States: 75 per cent.

In Canada, our net liabilities are 34 per cent of GDP, substantially down from 1995, though up from the low-point in 2008 when the figure was just 22 per cent. (Between 1995 and 2008, our lowered ratio was helped both by a growing economy and some debt payback. Most other countries just kept borrowing.)

For the record, the fault for the ramped-up public debt cannot be placed on “too low” taxes. A variety of countries with widely differing tax levels all continued to borrow massively over that period.

For example, since 1995, and as a percentage of its economy, Greece’s total tax take has been about one-eighth to one-fifth higher than the United States (depending on the year). But high-tax Greece put itself into more debt as did the (relatively) low-tax U.S. Or consider the UK; its tax rates rose steadily since 1995 but so too its red ink problem.

In other words, the assumption that higher tax revenues will save a country from its spending and borrowing addiction is mistaken. That’s not any more likely than a modest raise for a consumer maxed out on her credit cards whose real problem is overspending.

Besides, higher tax rates do not necessarily equal higher revenues when compared with a moderately taxed nation.  A high-tax, inefficient tax regime can slow economic growth and encourage tax cheating and depress tax receipts—another one of Greece’s many problems, actually. 

In Canada, despite our relatively low net debt-to-GDP ratio at present, in most years, our governments played the same pass-the-social-welfare-bill-forward game.

Since 1961 up to the present, the federal government ran deficits in 37 of 50 years (never mind provincial or local red ink or unfunded liabilities on top of all this). Problematically, the federal Conservatives in Ottawa are now in their fourth consecutive red ink year and forecast deficits until at least 2014/15. At that point, the federal debt will stand at $615 billion up from $457 billion in 2008, a one-third increase over that period.

Looking back over post-war years, there were always alternative policy options to the welfare state, ones that would still have provided security to citizens in Europe, the U.S. and Canada. For starters, options included mandated private savings accounts for health and pensions.  Had such accounts been started decades ago, each generation would have been forced to finance its own major social benefits through pre-funding. This would have been superior to the intergenerational transfer of wealth through the politicized tax-and-spend system.    

Instead, for decades, government borrowed massively to finance current social programs out of future tax revenues and handed the bill to future generations. It led to the illusion that the welfare state was sustainable.


Lenin was right


A Conspiracy of Counterfeiters
By Patrick J. Buchanan    
“Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the Capitalist System was to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.”
“Lenin was certainly right,” John Maynard Keynes continued in his 1919 classic, “The Economic Consequences of the Peace.”
“There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.”
Keynes warned that terrible hatreds would be unleashed against “profiteers” who enriched themselves through inflation as the middle class was wiped out. And he pointed with alarm to Germany, where the mark had lost most of its international value.
By November 1923, the German currency was worthless, hauled about in wheelbarrows to buy groceries. The middle class had been destroyed. German housewives were prostituting themselves to feed their families. That same month, Adolf Hitler attempted his Munich Beer Hall Putsch.
Today a coterie of economists is prodding Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to induce inflation into the American economy.
Fearing falling prices, professor Kenneth Rogoff, former chief economist for the International Monetary Fund, is pushing for an inflation rate of 5 to 6 percent while conceding that his proposal is rife with peril and “we could end up with 200 percent inflation.”
Paul Krugman, Nobel Prize winner and columnist for The New York Times, is pushing Bernanke in the same direction.
Bernanke, writes Krugman, should take the advice he gave Japan in 2000, when he urged the Bank of Japan to stimulate the economy with “an announcement that the bank was seeking moderate inflation, ‘setting a target in the 3-4 percent range for inflation, to be maintained for a number of years.’”
And who inspired Bernanke to urge Tokyo to inflate? Krugman modestly credits himself.
“Was Mr. Bernanke on the right track? I think so — as well I should, since his paper was partly based on my own earlier work.”
But Krugman is not optimistic about Bernanke’s injecting the U.S. economy with a sufficient dose of inflation.
Why is Ben hesitant? Two words, says Krugman: “Rick Perry.”
Krugman believes Bernanke has been intimidated by Perry’s populist threat in Iowa after his first day of campaigning:
“If this guy (Bernanke) prints more money between now and the election, I don’t know what y’all would do to him in Iowa, but we would treat him pretty ugly down in Texas. Printing more money to play politics at this particular time in American history is almost treasonous.”
Perry was indulging in Texas hyperbole, and the press came down hard on him for language unbefitting a presidential candidate.
Yet Perry has raised a legitimate series of questions.
What should be done to high officials of the U.S. government who consciously set out to dilute and destroy the savings and income of working Americans? What should be done to those who have sworn an oath to defend the Constitution and then steal the wealth of citizens by secretly manipulating the value of the currency, the store of wealth upon which those people depend?
Is inducing inflation — debauching the currency, the systematic and secret theft of the savings of citizens — a legitimate policy option for the Federal Reserve? Has Congress authorized official thievery?
Who do these economists think they are?
Inflation rewards debt — and erodes savings. It is legalized counterfeiting, the deliberate creation of money with nothing to back it up.
If a citizen printed dollars bills, he would be tracked by the Secret Service, prosecuted and imprisoned. Why, then, is the Fed’s clandestine printing of money with nothing to back it up a legitimate exercise and, according to Krugman & Co., a desirable policy for Bernanke and the Fed?
Schooled economists such as Rogoff, Krugman and Bernanke know how to shelter their wealth from the ravages of inflation — and even to get rich. But what about widows whose husbands leave a nest egg of savings in cash and bonds? What are they supposed to do as the value of their savings is wiped out at 4, 5 or 6 percent a year — or whatever annual rate of ruin the Rogoffs and the Krugmans decide upon?
This is not only an economic issue but a moral issue.
To inflate a currency is to steal the money citizens have earned and saved and entrusted their government to protect. Any government that betrays that trust and steals that wealth is not only unworthy of support. It is worthy of being overthrown.
On this one, as Keynes said, Lenin was right.
Perry and Ron Paul deserve the nation’s gratitude for putting this issue of the unfettered power and the amorality of our unelected Federal Reserve on the political docket.

Prepare to Be Betrayed

Marx’s Tea Party
 
The populist right has forgotten an older form of class analysis.
By Anthony Gregory
Last summer Angelo Codevilla’s American Spectator essay “America’s Ruling Class and the Perils of Revolution” made waves in conservative circles for its compelling treatment of the minority ruling class (the political elite and its partisans) versus the “country class” (the rest of us). It was a sophisticated exposition but also broke down the class conflict in simple terms: “The rulers want the ruled to shut up and obey. The ruled want self-governance.” Rush Limbaugh praised the article for helping to explain the struggle of the Tea Party’s populists against the political establishment.
The Tea Party’s rhetoric of defending the little guy against the powerful has always seemed discordant to the left, which regards such class consciousness as its own domain. The left has long identified itself with the idea of two classes in society—the common people and the power elite—each with its own, usually conflicting, interests. When left-wingers speak this way, conservatives like Limbaugh accuse them of “class warfare.” But neither side grasps the full picture: in fact, it was the classical liberal tradition that first employed the class analysis that has survived to this day in altered forms.
“There was a theory of class conflict developed by classical liberals before Marxism and on which Marx himself drew,” libertarian historian Ralph Raico has argued. This theory was associated with such 19th-century French scholars as historian Augustin Thierry and economist Charles Dunoyer, as well as Jean-Baptiste Say and his followers Charles Comte and Jérôme-Adolphe Blanqui. As Raico noted in a January 1991 essay in Liberty, Blanqui wrote “what is probably the first history of economic thought, published in 1837,” in which the French liberal explained:
In all the revolutions, there have always been but two parties opposing each other; that of the people who wish to live by their own labor, and that of those who would live by the labor of others. … Patricians and plebeians, slaves and freemen, guelphs and ghibellines, red roses and white roses, cavaliers and roundheads, liberals and serviles, are only varieties of the same species.
Class analysis was thoroughly incorporated into classical liberal rhetoric by the time Richard Cobden and John Bright were fighting against Britain’s Corn Laws. Bright saw this struggle as “a war of classes. I believe this to be a movement of the commercial and industrial classes against the Lords and the great proprietors of the soil.” The dichotomy between a plundering political class—the rulers and their favored interests—and the masses victimized by state power is further seen in the 19th-century writings of Frederic Bastiat, Herbert Spencer, and John C. Calhoun, among others.
According to Raico, Marx expropriated class analysis from the classical liberals and transformed it from a libertarian framework into a socialist one: the historically inevitable clash between profiting capitalists and exploited workers. Marx regarded the state as the capitalists’ tool. The most wealthy merchants tended to be in bed with the political class, and so it was not difficult for Marx to adapt class analysis from a theory based on legally defined categories—those who had state privileges and those who did not—to one where class was defined according to status in the process of economic production. Instead of rulers versus their subjects, Marx gave us owners vesrus workers.
This permutation of class analysis seduced many thinkers of a liberal, humanitarian inclination and aided the statist makeover of liberalism, which made peace with the state as a means of elevating the masses. By endorsing the proletarian capture of state power, Marx, his followers, and the entire left side of the spectrum have in a sense inverted the original purpose of class analysis. In seeing the state as the people’s best hope, and viewing the wealthy as being opposed to the interests of the democratic state, left-liberals have turned the anti-statist, anti-taxation, anti-monopoly thrust of class analysis on its head, converting it from a case against the state into a case for it.
Modern libertarians, as heirs to classical liberalism, have attempted to reclaim the original vision—while still, like the Marxists, “following the money” to see how the state provides monopoly benefits and direct subsidies to corporate interests. Radical libertarian class analysis maintains the classical liberal focus on the taxing state as the chief enemy, while agreeing with leftists on many particulars of how big businesses—especially the banking industry and defense contractors—use the state to line their pockets at the expense of the people.
The man most responsible for libertarian attention to this subject was economist and historian Murray N. Rothbard. Likely the most significant theorist of modern libertarianism—he built a system integrating natural-rights ethics, anti-imperialism, Austrian economics, and individualist anarchism all under the rubric of one political theory—Rothbard was a dedicated practitioner of classical-liberal class analysis. In a 1967 critique of Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society, Rothbard drew on the work of sociologist Franz Oppenheimer to describe the distinction between the minority ruling class and the victimized majority: “By seizing revenue by means of coercion and assigning rewards as it disburses the funds, the state creates ruling and ruled ‘classes’ or ‘castes’; for one example, classes of what Calhoun discerned as net ‘taxpayers’ and ‘tax-consumers,’ those who live off taxation.”
In his 1974 essay “The Anatomy of the State,” Rothbard finds the state’s origins in plunder—the state was born when bands of marauders decided to stick around and extract regular tribute from their victims, rather than taking all they could at once and killing their prey. The state is “the systematization of the predatory process over a given territory.” And since the state’s relationship with the people is parasitical, it can only maintain its grip through subterfuge.
“[T]he chief task of the rulers is always to secure the active or resigned acceptance of the majority of the citizens” through “the creation of vested economic interests” as well as by “promoting [statist] ideology among the people.”
Hans-Hermann Hoppe, a disciple of Rothbard in economics and political theory, elaborates on these principles in his 1990 paper “Marxist and Austrian Class Analysis,” in which he explains the major disagreements as well as similarities between the two schools:
[T]he basic proposition of the Marxist theory of the state in particular is false. The state is not exploitative because it protects the capitalists’ property rights, but because it itself is exempt from the restriction of having to acquire property productively and contractually.
In spite of this fundamental misconception, however, Marxism, because it correctly interprets the state as exploitative (unlike, for example, the public choice school, which sees it as normal firm among others), is on to some important insights regarding the logic of state operations. For one thing, it recognizes the strategic function of redistributionist state policies.
Scrutinizing the relationships between the state and its favored interests is a focus that has long energized Rothbardians and endeared them to New Left historians like Gabriel Kolko—if not for their conclusions then for their amassing incriminating examples of corporatism at work. Rothbard begins his 1984 essay “Wall Street, Banks, and American Foreign Policy” indicting an entire industry for its intimate ties to the modern state. Unlike businessmen and manufacturers, who “can either be genuine free enterprisers or statists,” bankers, dependent on the state’s credit expansion and protection of fractional reserve banking, “are inherently inclined toward statism.” With this charge Rothbard begins his detailed analysis of how the financial industry has been in cahoots with the American empire since the dawn of the Progressive Era and how other corporate interests have long instigated U.S. military action to open up markets on their behalf.
Rothbard, guided by libertarian class consciousness, wrote that the mark of a radical libertarian was that he demonstrates  “a deep and pervasive hatred of the State and all of its works, based on the conviction that the State is the enemy of mankind.” This orientation of opposition to the political class and seeing it as an enemy informed Rothbard’s coalition-building strategy. He sought alliances with those who seemed naturally adverse to the power elite. In the 1960s, he worked with antiwar radicals who resented being forced to finance and fight a war in Vietnam. In the 1990s, Rothbard saw hope on the anti-Clinton populist right. As Rothbard’s student and colleague Lew Rockwell later noted, after the Cold War “a new opening appeared to achieve Rothbard’s dream of bringing about a middle-class revolution against the state.”
In his 1992 article “Right-Wing Populism,” Rothbard proposed an agenda both populist and radical. He suggested decentralizing government to settle controversies on social issues, while focusing on questions that libertarians and conservatives could rally behind—including slashing taxes, cutting welfare, abolishing racial and other group privileges, dismantling the Federal Reserve (“attacking the banksters”), bringing the troops home, and defending family values against the politically correct state. He emphasized that Washington, D.C., was the enemy. The class analysis was always implied or declared.
The Tea Party at least superficially resembles the bourgeois uprising that Rothbard favored. Its rhetoric opposes Wall Street bailouts, corporate cronyism, and the national political elite. But is the Tea Party’s class analysis accurate enough to constitute a revolutionary movement—or are these mostly partisan opportunists who will unite behind the next Republican president, just as the 1990s anti-Clinton movement backed the spendthrift Bush administration?
Much of the Tea Party’s focus on the elites has been understandable, and even left-liberals like Glenn Greenwald and Jane Hamsher and left radicals like Noam Chomsky have defended some of it, warning fellow leftists not to dismiss the populist anger as unjustified or hypocritical. But whereas some left-liberals have had a mixed reaction to the Tea Parties, Rockwell and many of Rothbard’s other libertarian followers have been skeptical or downright hostile. Ryan McMaken wrote in an April 2009 LewRockwell.com article, “The Tea Parties: We’ve Seen it All Before”:

In fact, Social Security is a bit worse than that.

Yes, It Is a Ponzi Scheme 
by M. Tanner

Texas governor Rick Perry is being criticized for calling Social Security a “Ponzi scheme.”  Even Mitt Romney is reportedly preparing to attack him for holding such a radical view. But if anything, Perry was being too kind.  
The original Ponzi scheme was the brainchild of Charles Ponzi. Starting in 1916, the poor but enterprising Italian immigrant convinced people to allow him to invest their money. However, Ponzi never actually made any investments. He simply took the money he was given by later investors and gave it to his early investors, providing those early investors with a handsome profit. He then used these satisfied early investors as advertisements to get more investors. Unfortunately, in order to keep paying previous investors, Ponzi had to continue finding more and more new investors. Eventually, he couldn’t expand the number of new investors fast enough, and the scheme collapsed. Ponzi was convicted of fraud and sent to prison.
Social Security, on the other hand, forces people to invest in it through a mandatory payroll tax. A small portion of that money is used to buy special-issue Treasury bonds that the government will eventually have to repay, but the vast majority of the money you pay in Social Security taxes is not invested in anything. Instead, the money you pay into the system is used to pay benefits to those “early investors” who are retired today. When you retire, you will have to rely on the next generation of workers behind you to pay the taxes that will finance your benefits.
As with Ponzi’s scheme, this turns out to be a very good deal for those who got in early. The very first Social Security recipient, Ida Mae Fuller of Vermont, paid just $44 in Social Security taxes, but the long-lived Mrs. Fuller collected $20,993 in benefits. Such high returns were possible because there were many workers paying into the system and only a few retirees taking benefits out of it. In 1950, for instance, there were 16 workers supporting every retiree. Today, there are just over three. By around 2030, we will be down to just two.
As with Ponzi’s scheme, when the number of new contributors dries up, it will become impossible to continue to pay the promised benefits. Those early windfall returns are long gone. When today’s young workers retire, they will receive returns far below what private investments could provide. Many will be lucky to break even.
Eventually the pyramid crumbles.
Of course, Social Security and Ponzi schemes are not perfectly analogous. Ponzi, after all, had to rely on what people were willing to voluntarily invest with him. Once he couldn’t convince enough new investors to join his scheme, it collapsed. Social Security, on the other hand, can rely on the power of the government to tax. As the shrinking number of workers paying into the system makes it harder to continue to sustain benefits, the government can just force young people to pay even more into the system.
In fact, Social Security taxes have been raised some 40 times since the program began. The initial Social Security tax was 2 percent (split between the employer and employee), capped at $3,000 of earnings. That made for a maximum tax of $60. Today, the tax is 12.4 percent, capped at $106,800, for a maximum tax of $13,234. Even adjusting for inflation, that represents more than an 800 percent increase.
In addition, at least until the final collapse of his scheme, Ponzi was more or less obligated to pay his early investors what he promised them. With Social Security, on the other hand, Congress is always able to change or cut those benefits in order to keep the scheme going.
Social Security is facing more than $20 trillion in unfunded future liabilities. Raising taxes and cutting benefits enough to keep the program limping along will obviously mean an ever-worsening deal for younger workers. They will be forced to pay more and get less.
Rick Perry got this one right.