Friday, May 11, 2012

Secrecy and corruption in Washington DC

Sibel Edmonds Finally Wins
by David Swanson
Sibel Edmonds' new book, Classified Woman, is like an FBI file on the FBI, only without the incompetence.
The experiences she recounts resemble K.'s trip to the castle, as told by Franz Kafka, only without the pleasantness and humanity.
I've read a million reviews of nonfiction books about our government that referred to them as "page-turners" and "gripping dramas," but I had never read a book that actually fit that description until now.

From Sweet Science to Sour

Walking away is the best policy, and brave men do it all the time 
by Taki Theodoracopulos
Briefly home from boarding school back in 1951, I went to a bar with a phony draft card, ordered a beer, and watched Rocky Marciano knock out my idol Joe Louis. Joe was 37 and trying for a comeback, as he was broke—and as he sat in his stool after having been counted out, he looked a lot older. Rocky crossed over from his corner, bent down to speak to Joe, and began to cry. Joe was his idol, too. Rocky went on to become world champ and retired undefeated after 49 fights, only to die in an airplane accident.

Thursday, May 10, 2012

Knowledge is truly the mother of all resources

Expanding 'Depletable' Resources
Italian Immigrants arriving at Ellis Island 1903
"I'm sorry for you—coming to Texas [in 1915] to look for oil. Don't you know there is no oil in Texas?!" —Wallace Pratt, Consultant, "Oil Finding—the Way it Was," Petroleum 2000 Issue, Oil & Gas Journal, August 1977, p. 144
By Robert L. Bradley Jr.*
If resources are not fixed but created, then the nature of the scarcity problem changes dramatically. For the technological means involved in the use of resources determines their creation and therefore the extent of their scarcity. The nature of the scarcity is not outside the process (that is natural), but a condition of it. —Tom DeGregori (1987). "Resources Are Not; They Become: An Institutional Theory." Journal of Economic Issues, p. 1258.
Mineral resources, not synthetically producible in human time frames,1 are fixed in the earth. As each is mined, less supply remains, suggesting that cost and, thus, price must increase as production cumulates.
Yet, for virtually all minerals, the opposite seems to be true: As more is mined, more is discovered to be mined. Prices and costs do not inexorably rise. What was high-cost yesterday has become lower-cost, undercutting the perennial complaint that "the easy stuff has been found." Overall, there seems to be little difference between minerals and general goods and services.

Big Oil Goes Mining for Big Data

As petroleum production gets trickier, digital innovation becomes more crucial
BY JESSICA LEBER
The world isn't running out of oil and natural gas. It is running out of easy oil and gas. And as energy companies drill deeper and hunt in more remote regions and difficult deposits, they're banking on information technology to boost production.
Data, in this case, really is the new oil. "It's pretty sweeping," says Paul Siegele, president of the Energy Technology Company at Chevron. "Information technology is enabling us to get more barrels of each asset."
Oil companies are using distributed sensors, high-speed communications, and data-mining techniques to monitor and fine-tune remote drilling operations. The aim is to use real-time data to make better decisions and predict glitches.

Europe’s Misguided Search for Growth

What can Europe do to create growth? The honest answer is: rather little
By Daniel Gros
A few months ago, 25 of the 27 members of the European Union solemnly signed a treaty that committed them to enshrining tough deficit limits in their national constitutions. This so-called “fiscal compact” was the key condition to get Germany to agree to increase substantially the funding for the eurozone’s rescue funds, and for the European Central Bank to conduct its €1 trillion “long-term refinancing operation” (LTRO), which was essential to stabilizing financial markets.

Greeks May Hold $510 Billion Trump Card in Renegotiation

Not counting the money owed by private debtors, including banks.
By John Glover
Greek voters are demanding their leaders renegotiate the terms of rescue packages that have imposed unprecedented austerity on the country since 2010. One potential prime minister, Syriza party leader Alexis Tsipras, has pledged to tear up the EU-led bailout agreement. With Greece owing a sum roughly equal to Switzerland’s economy, the fallout for taxpayers could be calamitous if the country walks away.
“Greece has got some strong cards to persuade them to go easy on austerity,” said John Whittaker, an economist atLancaster University Management School in England. “Everyone fears a Greek departure from the euro because they’ll lose money and lose political capital.”
Euro Integration
European governments have poured money into Greece since its first rescue was agreed in April 2010 in a bid to keep the country in the euro and prove that monetary union, a symbol of European post-war integration, is irrevocable.

Hollande has lived inside the fishbowl his entire adult lives

Political Science
"The French are a free people, who will not allow their future to be determined by the pressure of markets or finance."
       ~ French presidential candidate François Hollande, Ecole Nationale d'Administration (ENA), class of 1980
By Fred Sheehan
Hollande expressed an ardent belief of every ENA graduate (popularly known as énarques, a popularity not often witnessed beyond the campus gates.) Economics professors from Harvard, Princeton, and Oxbridge also dismiss markets. They went so far as to claim all markets identify the right price all the time, thus avoiding the need to understand them. Markets are there to be used: a means to institute public policy. Such policies are imposed by the ruling few.
The Bretton Woods gold standard constrained the ambitions of superior persons. When President Nixon defaulted on the United States' gold payment obligation in 1971, he opened the floodgates to Policy Making without Consequences.

Class War by Judo

The old-fashioned wrestling for crumbs
By Anthony de Jasay
Marxists and most Frenchmen hold that since all value is produced by labour, all of it should be paid out in wages except the part taken by the state, a body which by rights ought to belong to the workers anyway. All private profit is stolen from the working class. It is incumbent on the state to claw it back from the capitalists.
Class warfare is the mode of clawing back the profit, through complete success requires actual revolution. For the hard Left, this is the true aim of class warfare. For the soft Left, well-drilled labour unions in closed shops squeezing profits by tough collective bargaining are fighting the good fight. A more formidable arm of class war as practised by the soft Left is the collective mandate an electoral majority hands to the state to "slice the national cake" by transfer payments and public goods, so that its distribution will be more favourable to the working class than the original distribution intended by those who had arranged the baking of the cake in the first place.

A time for the French to keep their heads

Dreaming of a new revolution - short of money to pay for it
By George Walden
When the last French socialist president, François Mitterrand, was preparing for victory, it was my job as a diplomat to accompany him on a trip to London to call on Jim Callaghan. En route from the airport to No 10, I arranged for him to drop in to Kew Gardens. A mistake. He was so enthralled I couldn’t get him out, and we turned up a trifle late for the prime minister.

Hollande Must Betray His Supporters to Save Them

Wisely, his campaign was more about posture than specifics
By Clive Crook
French voters are deluding themselves if they think the man they just elected president offers a viable alternative to the departing Nicolas Sarkozy.
Francois Hollande’s socialist program is inoperable. Let’s hope he understands that. If he doesn’t already, he soon will.
Hollande’s campaign was a throwback to Francois Mitterrand’s failed socialist experiment of the early 1980s. The new president doesn’t oppose Europe’s fiscal pact because it needlessly imposes too much austerity too soon -- which is true. He opposes the very idea of structural reform. In France the government already spends 56 percent of gross domestic product. Hollande now promises, among other things, to hire tens of thousands of extra civil servants and roll back Sarkozy’s increase in the retirement age from 60 to 62.

Operation Self-Deceit

New Documents Shine Light on Euro Birth Defects
Newly revealed German government documents reveal that many in Helmut Kohl's Chancellery had deep doubts about a European common currency when it was introduced in 1998. First and foremost, experts pointed to Italy as being the euro's weak link. The early shortcomings have yet to be corrected.
By Sven Böll, Christian Reiermann, Michael Sauga and Klaus Wiegrefe
It was shortly before his departure to Brussels when the chancellor was overpowered by the sheer magnitude of the moment. Helmut Kohl said that the "weight of history" would become palpable on that weekend; the resolution to establish the monetary union, he said, was a reason for "joyful celebration."

Wednesday, May 9, 2012

The Death Spiral of Debt, Risk and Jobs

The systemic misallocation of capital puts the job market in a death spiral
Debt, risk and employment are in a death-spiral of malinvestment and debt-based consumption.
Economists look at debt, risk and the job market as separate issues. No wonder they can't make sense of our "jobless recovery": the three are intimately and causally connected. An entire book could be written about debt, risk and jobs, but let's see if we can't shed some light on a complex dynamic in a few paragraphs.
Risk: As I described in "Resistance, Revolution, Liberation: A Model for Positive Change", risk cannot be eliminated, it can only be shifted to others or temporarily masked.

Why Breaking a Store Window Isn’t Anarchism

Scratch a left-wing “anarchist” and you will find a coercive despot
by James Miller
How we use words has a tremendous impact on the ideas that reach prominence and influence how societies evolve.  Just think of the loaded term “democracy” and the poisonous vitriol spewed at anyone who points out the utter immorality of a governing system where the majority is able to trample over the minority.  Then there is “capitalism” which was not originally a term of simple description but of scathing critique to the uninhibited market.  Or consider what the term “liberal” means in context of contemporary politics.  What once described those who advocated free trade, peaceful foreign relations, and a laissez-faire approach to the economy means, today, the exact opposite.  “Liberal” is now used to describe social democrats who seek to use the state as a force to compel more equitable outcomes in all private matters.

Keynesians vs Austrians

The debate is hotting up
Last week, an Austrian-School economist, Robert Wenzel, gave a speech to the New York Federal Reserve, and separately Bloomberg hosted a television debate between Ron Paul, who is running for the Republican Presidential nomination, and Professor Paul Krugman, one of the foremost advocates of Keynesian economic policy. The debate between advocates of big government and small government is beginning to move into the media.
It is not so much a question of who wins the debate: rather it is that the minority Austrian view is being noted by a few economists at the Fed, and that Krugman, who last year turned down an opportunity to debate economics with Robert Murphy of the Ludwig von Mises Institute in America, presumably felt more comfortable defending his interventionist beliefs against a politician than a trained economist. Whatever your opinion, the fact that some establishment economists are at least curious about Austrian economics and that Ron Paul is getting air-time for his views is a good thing, if only because it makes people aware there is an alternative to establishment economics.

Posturing against austerity

An infantile disorder
The left-wing groups making electoral gains in Europe are driven by a desire to avoid reality rather than a determination to create a new one.
by Brendan O’Neill 
Given that a Socialist president has been elected in France for the first time since 1981, and that the two main parties in Greece have taken a drubbing in a general election, it’s understandable that the local elections in Italy have been overlooked. That’s a shame, though, since those elections produced a result which speaks powerfully to the state of European politics in 2012. In Italy, an actual comedian was elected, a joker, a man who made his living from making people laugh and who has now become someone who shakes the cage of traditionalist politics. Indeed, funnyman Beppe Grillo won a ‘massive victory’, leading one waggish headline writer to say that the Italian people had the last laugh in local elections’.

The idea of EU austerity is a myth

EU Voters Nix Austerity, Though It's Not Been Tried
The stunning outcomes of elections in France, Greece and Italy were called "a sweeping repudiation" of austerity by more than one media outlet. But how can you repudiate something that's never been tried?
By IBD Editorial
The EU tried austerity, but it didn't work. The media and Europe's beleaguered leftist politicians have made that their refrain, and apparently a lot of European voters now agree.
How else can you explain why French Socialist Francois Hollande ousted centrist incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy in Sunday's election — and why anti-austerity parties on the left and right made gains in Greece's parliamentary elections over the weekend?

When Elites Depart

Why do complex societies collapse? 
By John Robb
One of the benefits of having a son that is a scholar of ancient warfare, from Alexander the Great to the Byzantine Empire to the Mongols, is that we can have wide ranging discussions on very deep topics.  Of perennial interest to us: why do complex societies/civilizations collapse?  
One of interesting working theories we have is that while complex societies can be in decay for a long period of time, they only collapse when its favored elites abandon it/betray it.   
Here's an example from Roman history written by Joseph Tainter:
The Collapse of The [Western] Roman Empire
One outcome of diminishing returns to complexity is illustrated by the collapse of the Western Roman Empire. As a solar-energy based society which taxed heavily, the empire had little fiscal reserve. When confronted with military crises, Roman Emperors often had to respond by debasing the silver currency (Figure 4.2) and trying to raise new funds.

The poisonous Keynesian prescription

Paul Krugman is clueless about the European economic crisis
By Nile Gardiner
New York Times columnist Paul Krugman’s latest piece “Death of a Fairy Tale” is yet another rant against austerity measures in Europe, especially in Britain. Such measures, he argues, would be disastrous for the United States, even though the world’s superpower is now more than $15 trillion in debt, with the highest deficits since World War Two. Krugman has consistently argued for a big government approach towards America’s economic problems – greater stimulus spending, higher taxes, and more bailouts.
The Nobel prize-winning economist’s article is highly misleading in its claim that austerity is the cause of Europe’s economic woes today, an assertion that is not backed up by any evidence. Last Friday, Krugman wrote that:

Running out of other people's money

Francois Hollande’s election victory is a symbol of the EU’s decline
By Nile Gardiner
Nicolas Sarkozy’s defeat at the hands of French Socialist leader Francois Hollande has sent shock waves throughout Europe, and will significantly challenge the fragile austerity consensus across the EU. Jean-Marc Ayrault, the likely next prime minister of France, puts it in uncompromising terms:
"We must get out of this austerity in Europe and tonight all our partners in governments around Europe have understood that was the choice of François Hollande to re-orient Europe."
Hollande’s victory spells trouble ahead for both Angela Merkel and David Cameron, who face general elections in 2013 and 2015 respectively. Both Merkel and Cameron have championed the need for budget cuts in the face of Europe’s massive debt crisis, and face growing domestic opposition to their support for austerity measures. If Merkel falls in the Autumn of next year, the balance of power within the EU will shift dramatically to the Left, with Britain and Spain as the two leading conservative-led governments in Western Europe confronting a re-engineered Franco-German axis that would back greater stimulus measures as a solution to Europe’s problems.

The Tyranny of Good Intentions

Empire to Fight 'Atrocities'
by Nebojsa Malic
What is to be made of the Emperor’s announcement of the "Atrocity Prevention Board", in the waning days of April? Without a doubt it is a carte blanche for "regime change", for intervention wherever, whenever, against whomever. That, then, puts it in a remarkable continuity with the 2008 "Bush Doctrine," itself a logical extension of the Brezhnev one.
Nor is this a recent phenomenon. As early as Obama’s inauguration, it was clear he would embrace continuity, rather than the change he promised. Rather than ending Bush’s wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, pointless after the death of Osama bin Laden, Obama made them his own. Instead of hunting al-Qaeda, the troops were hitched into the oxcart of "nation-building" and democracy promotion. Even after the official exit from Iraq, and the recently negotiated exit from Afghanistan, to maintain the client regimes in Baghdad and Kabul, the Empire will need to maintain garrisons and spend further treasure. Which keeps dwindling, as it is.