A stable international financial system has eluded the world since the end of the gold standard.
It's funny: nearly five years ago, when we first started, and said that the
world is doomed to an endless cycle of bubble, financial crisis and currency
collapse as
long as the Fed is around, most people laughed: after all they had very serious
reputations aligned with a broken and terminally disintegrating economic lie.
With time some came to agree with our viewpoint, but most of the very serious
people continued to laugh. Fast forward to last night when we read, in that
very bastion of very serious opinions, the Financial Times, the following sentence: "The
world is doomed to an endless cycle of bubble, financial crisis and currency
collapse." By the way, the last phrase can be written in a
simpler way: hyperinflation.
So ok then: we are happy to take that as
an indirect, partial apology by some very serious people. Partial, because the
piece's author, Robin Harding, doesn't explicitly come out and state that this
cycle of boom and bust is a direct function of ever encroaching
central-planning being handed over to a few economists with zero real world experience, whose
actions result in ever more devastating blow ups once the boom cycle shifts to
bust. Instead, it is their admission that this is what the world has come to.
But, being economists, they naturally fail to see that it is all due to them.
Instead, just like pervasive market halt, flash crashes, and everything else
that now dominates a broken New Normal, this cycle which eventually culminates
with currency collapse, or said otherwise, hyperinflation.
The FT's read on the paradox of modern
finance and central banking is surprisingly accurate: in
fact, it is almost as if it comes not from the FT but from a textbook on
Austrian economics, or a Zero Hedge article:
All [the central bankers'] discussion of the international financial system was marked by a fatalist acceptance of the status quo. Despite the success of unconventional monetary policy and recent big upgrades to financial regulation, we still have no way to tackle imbalances in the global economy, and that means new crises in the future.
Indeed, the problem is becoming worse. Since the collapse in 1971 of the old fixed exchange rate system of Bretton Woods, the world has become used to the “trilemma” of international finance: the impossibility of having free capital flows, fixed exchange rates and an independent monetary policy all at the same time. Most countries have plumped for control over their own monetary policy and a floating exchange rate.
The rest of the article is also like
reading early Zero Hedge. Or middle. Or late: in a world of instantaneous
fungibility and global capital flows, the Fed is in charge of hot money
everywhere, which incidentally is why it is the Emerging Markets that are
getting destroyed (first, for now) as the global Fed-funded carry trade slowly
but surely unwinds.