Friday, January 17, 2014

Ariel Sharon and the death of the Israeli Dream

Sharon's shift from ‘hawk’ to negotiator told a bigger story about Israel
By DANIEL BEN-AMI
Despite the bitter differences between the admirers and critics of Ariel Sharon, the former Israeli prime minister who died on Saturday, most share one outlook in common. They claim to have divined a continuity in his career despite his apparent shift from ultra-nationalist hawk to architect of Israel’s unilateral disengagement from Gaza.
It is understandable that both sides should fall for this temptation, since it provides the easiest way to make sense of Sharon’s contradictions. Either he was a pragmatic Zionist who would do whatever was necessary to protect the embattled Jewish state. Or alternatively he was a ruthless butcher of the Palestinians whose latter-day talk of peace was merely a cynical cover for greater repression.
Both sides fail to grasp the fundamental shift that has taken place in Israeli society since the 1970s. Until that decade, the vast majority of Israelis were united behind the project of building a Jewish state within Eretz Yisrael (the historic Land of Israel that includes the present-day West Bank). This goal was generally seen as a necessary response to the scourge of anti-Semitism rather than being viewed as a religious mission. Indeed, most of the original founders of Israel considered themselves socialists. The earlier settlements, including those in the West Bank and Gaza, were founded under the auspices of early leftist Israeli governments.
Since the 1970s, however, support for this classical conception of Zionism has steadily eroded. Many Israelis have become unsure about what their country stands for. The pioneering ardour has gone, and controlling land occupied by large numbers of Palestinians is seen as problematic at least. The one important exception to this disaffection is the mainstream religious community, the backbone of the settler movement, which retains its own particular conception of Zionism.
Sharon in many ways personified the shifts within Israel itself. Indeed, in some respects he was behind the times since he was an ardent supporter of settlement for longer than many in the Israeli elite. He only retreated from the goal of settlement expansion in his final years in office.
Read more at:

Global warming's glorious ship of fools

Has there ever been a better story? It's like a version of Titanic where first class cheers for the iceberg
By Mark Steyn
Yes, yes, just to get the obligatory ‘of courses’ out of the way up front: of course ‘weather’ is not the same as ‘climate’; and of course the thickest iciest ice on record could well be evidence of ‘global warming’, just as 40-and-sunny and a 35-below blizzard and 12 degrees and partly cloudy with occasional showers are all apparently manifestations of ‘climate change’; and of course the global warm-mongers are entirely sincere in their belief that the massive carbon footprint of their rescue operation can be offset by the planting of wall-to-wall trees the length and breadth of Australia, Britain, America and continental Europe.
But still: you’d have to have a heart as cold and unmovable as Commonwealth Bay ice not to be howling with laughter at the exquisite symbolic perfection of the Australasian Antarctic Expedition ‘stuck in our own experiment’, as they put it. I confess I was hoping it might all drag on a bit longer and the cultists of the ecopalypse would find themselves drawing straws as to which of their number would be first on the roasting spit. On Douglas Mawson’s original voyage, he and his surviving comrade wound up having to eat their dogs. I’m not sure there were any on this expedition, so they’d probably have to make do with the Guardian reporters. Forced to wait a year to be rescued, Sir Douglas later recalled, ‘Several of my toes commenced to blacken and fester near the tips.’ Now there’s a man who’s serious about reducing his footprint.
But alas, eating one’s shipmates and watching one’s extremities drop off one by one is not a part of today’s high-end eco-doom tourism. Instead, the ice-locked warmists uploaded chipper selfies to YouTube, as well as a self-composed New Year singalong of such hearty un-self-awareness that it enraged even such party-line climate alarmists as Andrew Revkin, the plonkingly earnest enviro-blogger of the New York Times. A mere six weeks ago, pumping out the usual boosterism, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation reported that, had Captain Scott picked his team as carefully as Professor Chris Turney, he would have survived. Sadly, we’ll never know — although I’ll bet Captain Oates would have been doing his ‘I am going out. I may be some time’ line about eight bars into that New Year number.
Unlike Scott, Amundsen and Mawson, Professor Turney took his wife and kids along for the ride. And his scientists were outnumbered by wealthy tourists paying top dollar for the privilege of cruising the end of the world. In today’s niche-market travel industry, the Antarctic is a veritable Club Dread for upscale ecopalyptics: think globally, cruise icily. The year before theAkademik Shokalskiy set sail, as part of Al Gore’s ‘Living On Thin Ice’ campaign (please, no tittering; it’s so puerile; every professor of climatology knows that the thickest ice ever is a clear sign of thin ice, because as the oceans warm, glaciers break off the Himalayas and are carried by El Ninja down the Gore Stream past the Cape of Good Horn where they merge into the melting ice sheet, named after the awareness-raising rapper Ice Sheet…
Where was I? Oh, yeah. Anyway, as part of his ‘Living On Thin Ice’ campaign, Al Gore’s own luxury Antarctic vessel boasted a line-up of celebrity cruisers unseen since the 1979 season finale of The Love Boat — among them the actor Tommy Lee Jones, the pop star Jason Mraz, the airline entrepreneur Sir Richard Branson, the director of Titanic James Cameron, and the Bangladeshi minister of forests Somebody Wossname. If Voyage of the Gored had been a conventional disaster movie like The Poseidon Adventure, the Bangladeshi guy would have been the first to drown, leaving only the Nobel-winning climatologist (Miley Cyrus) and the maverick tree-ring researcher (Ben Affleck) to twerk their way through the ice to safety. Instead, and very regrettably, the SS Gore made it safely home, and it fell to Professor Turney’s ship to play the role of our generation’s Titanic. Unlike the original, this time round the chaps in the first-class staterooms were rooting for the iceberg: as the expedition’s marine ecologist Tracy Rogers told the BBC, ‘I love it when the ice wins and we don’t.’ Up to a point. Like James Cameron’s Titanic toffs, the warm-mongers stampeded for the first fossil-fuelled choppers off the ice, while the Russian crew were left to go down with the ship, or at any rate sit around playing cards in the hold for another month or two.
But unlike you flying off to visit your Auntie Mabel for a week, it’s all absolutely vital and necessary. In the interests of saving the planet, IPCC honcho Rajendra Pachauri demands the introduction of punitive aviation taxes and hotel electricity allowances to deter the masses from travelling, while he flies 300,000 miles a year on official ‘business’ and research for his recent warmographic novel in which a climate activist travels the world bedding big-breasted women who are amazed by his sustainable growth. (Seriously: ‘He removed his clothes and began to feel Sajni’s body, caressing her voluptuous breasts.’ But don’t worry; every sex scene is peer-reviewed.) No doubt his next one will boast an Antarctic scene: Is that an ice core in your pocket or are you just pleased to see me?
The AAE is right: the warm-mongers are indeed ‘stuck in our own experiment’. Frozen to their doomsday narrative like Jeff Daniels with his tongue stuck to the ski lift in Dumb and Dumber, the Big Climate enforcers will still not brook anyone rocking their boat. In December 2008 Al Gore predicted the ‘entire North Polar ice cap will be gone in five years’. That would be December last year. Oh, sure, it’s still here, but he got the general trend-line correct, didn’t he? Arctic sea ice, December 2008: 12.5 million square kilometres; Arctic sea ice, December 2013: 12.5 million square kilometres.
Read more at:


France Praying for Miraculous Metamorphosis

Nothing Left to Lose?
by Pater Tenebrarum
In a recent article at Reuters, the hope was expressed that the approval rating of France's president Francois Hollande (lately renamed 'LOL-lande' in the French press and 'Niemandshand' in the Dutch press for reasons explained further below) has by now finally fallen to such an extremely low level, that he has nothing to lose anymore by engaging in meaningful reform. Since he cannot sink any lower, he can only win, or so the reasoning goes. What has inspired this epiphany is the recent revelation by a French tabloid newspaper that the president is involved in a secret nocturnal affair, sneaking out under the cover of darkness to presumably offer the services of his conjugal dipstick to an unknown female.
It was noticed that the allegation has failed to move the needle on his approval-meter further into the red. 80% of the population thought Hollande was a failure prior to the tryst coming to light, and 80% are still thinking so. Apparently things are as bad as they are going to get. Hence it is reckoned that he might be due for a metamorphosis, turning into a 'French Blair' or a version of Gerhard Schroeder (can you imagine a mixture of Blair and Hollande? One could probably quite easily make a successful horror movie starring that creature).  
“Yet with polls showing most French are blase about his private life, the real question is whether he will use the media event to show he is ready to tackle the double burden on the French economy: rising taxes and public spending.
"As is often the case, there are good intentions. But we will judge the deeds," said analyst Bruno Cavalier at Paris-based Oddo Securities.
The Socialist Hollande, who in his 2012 election campaign labeled the world of finance his enemy, ignited speculation of a U-turn with a New Year's address to the nation offering business leaders a "responsibility pact" trading lower taxes and less red tape for company commitments to hire more staff. Striking a new tone which has already raised hackles with unions, he also declared it was time to stamp out abuses of France's generous welfare state, and cut public spending so as to create room for tax reductions after a series of rises. Some see echoes of the about-turn made 30 years ago by Hollande's mentor Francois Mitterrand, who in 1983 halted a policy of nationalization and expansion of worker benefits just two years into his mandate as public finances crumbled.
About time too, say those who argue that public spending at around 57 percent of national output – some 12 points more than Germany's – is a burden the economy cannot afford. French debt at 93.4 percent of GDP and rising is now "in the danger zone", the national audit office warned last week.
The prospect of a policy shift has been applauded by France's main employers federation Medef, due to start talks in coming week with Hollande's government on tax cuts it hopes will restore corporate margins among the weakest in Europe. Left-wing newspaper L'Humanite dubbed him "Francois Blair" after the centrist British prime minister who dreamed up "New Labour" pragmatism, while others asked whether Hollande would follow the reforms implemented in Germany in the last decade.
"What indeed if, after 18 months of empty words and drift, Francois Hollande became the French Gerhard Schroeder?" Marc Touati of the ACDEFI economic consultancy asked, referring to the former Social Democrat chancellor who implemented painful labour market reform in the 2000s.
But he predicted: "This is a sort of bluffing tactic intended to gain time, soften up ratings agencies and investors but which will not result in hard measures." Pension and labour reforms implemented last year, while significant first steps, have hardly broken the mould. Projected 2014 French growth of just one percent will struggle to create private sector jobs.
So far, this year's budget foresees public spending cuts of 15 billion euros or some 0.7 percent of GDP. Yet the government still has to explain how the bulk of these will be achieved before it goes on to examine further possible cuts. Moreover the rapprochement with business risks alienating the moderate CFDT trade union which has so far been a vital ally to Hollande, backing pension and other reforms despite resistance from other, more hardline, labour organizations.
"I am issuing a warning: the trade unions have got to be players in all this," CFDT Secretary-General Laurent Berger said last week, insisting there could be no "blank cheque" for companies without benefits to labor as well.
[…]
Hollande may conclude he has nothing to lose now from taking a few risks. A survey by pollster Ifop released in the Journal du Dimanche newspaper this weekend showed little impact on his poll ratings from the allegations of a secret affair.
With Hollande currently enjoying little more than 20 percent of support, Ifop deputy chief Frederic Dabi noted: "He is already so unpopular that it hasn't changed anything." 
(emphasis added)
Admittedly, such metamorphoses do sometimes happen. A wily politician may well come to the conclusion that he has nothing to lose by changing course. And it is possible that Hollande will indeed decide to follow in Mitterand's footsteps and nix the socialist program in favor of a more pragmatic approach to economic policy. The reality is though that little is known about his views. We don't even know whether he truly understands the economic problems faced by France and why what he has hitherto done has made them worse. After all, he is a lifelong bureaucrat/politician and his actions to date indicate that he believes that governments are not subject to economic laws and that he 'can order nature around' as Fred Sheehan once put it.
We also cannot really tell how much of an ideologue he is. In any event, we do know that he occasionally casts a wary eye in the direction of those who try to overtake him from the left of the political spectrum and has done his best to preempt them and remain in the good graces of typical socialist client organizations such as the unions. Note the remark by union leader Laurent Berger above: "I am issuing a warning: the trade unions have got to be players in all this." Will Hollande risk a confrontation with the unions? We kind of doubt it actually.
Read more at:

Thursday, January 16, 2014

A Tyrant’s Best Friend

Architect of Destruction
Oscar Niemeyer’s architectural vision needed the support of authoritarian governments.
By DEMÉTRIO MAGNOLI
This past Sunday’s New York Times Magazine published a photo essay, accompanied by a single paragraph of prose by Julie Bosman, as a hagiographic memento for the late Brazilian architect Oscar Niemeyer. The photos were all of Niemeyer’s work in Algeria: four buildings built out of 12 designs approved. Bosman’s paragraph says that Niemeyer was “a Communist who fled to France following the military takeover of Brazil in 1964.” The passing mention of Niemeyer’s communism seems somehow to suggest that this was a badge of honor, albeit one that has nothing to do with his architectural style. This couldn’t be further from the truth.
In a 1920 documentary one can see Le Corbusier rubbing a thick black pencil over a wide area of ​​the map of central Paris “with the enthusiasm of Bomber Harris planning the annihilation of a German city in World War II”, wrote Theodore Dalrymple in a tasty article for City Journal. The celebrated architect, founder of the Congrès International d’Architecture Moderne (CIAM), was busy designing a delusional, totalitarian fantasy: the Plan Voisin, a geometric collection of 18 cruciform towers of offices sixty-stories high supplemented by series of residential buildings outlining superblocks. That’s Niemeyer’s achitectural template. His communism was most certainly not incidental to his style. 

The Cathedral of Brasilia, as seen from inside.
Taste is just taste, of course. You might like the Capanema Palace in Rio de Janeiro, a 1936 Niemeyer design based on a sketch by Le Corbusier (I do like it, in fact). You might like the Cathedral of Brasilia (I love it), built in 1958, or the Itamaraty Palace (it’s gorgeous), the headquarters of the Foreign Ministry erected in Brasilia in 1960. You might even like the sumptuous headquarters of the French Communist Party in Paris (I do not), or the hideous Latin America Memorial in São Paulo, or the ridiculous Contemporary Arts Museum in Niteroi. But like or dislike, love or hate, there is no intellectual justification for separating the oeuvre of Oscar Niemeyer from its doctrinal roots. Niemeyer is an heir of the Le Corbusier matrix, the founding father of an architecture of destruction wholly devoted to the aesthetic of power and to hatred for history, living public spaces and, above all, common people.
Niemeyer was certainly no naive epigone of Le Corbusier, with “big boxes on sticks” (Frank Lloyd Wright), that were “a common hallmark of the modern form” (Lewis Mumford). This Brazilian was an inventor: His contours sinuously curved the masses of concrete, giving a tropical identity to modern architecture. But look again to the photos reproduced in The NYT Magazine: Niemeyer’s compositional strategies and his narrow repertoire of forms are not derived from purported renaissance or baroque inspirations, but from the neoclassical principles which are those of Le Corbusier.  

Main façade of the Itamaraty Palace and its reflecting pool.
Furthermore, Niemeyer shared with his master the fundamental belief in the “civilizing mission” of the state—namely, the state privilege of hoarding unlimited acres of urban land to carve the city (and society) according to the ideals of the ruling elite. The two architects, Le Corbusier and Niemeyer, demand the patronage of tyrants – or, rather, tyrants with a Vision. The New York Times Magazine does not tell its readers that Niemeyer’s Algerian projects overlap with the most authoritarian stage of the Boumediene dictatorship, between 1971 and 1975.
In the Brazilian press, Niemeyer’s death in 2012 (at the age of 104), was accompanied predominantly by two types of reviews. One kind stated that his work was genius because it reflected the “humanist thought” of the unrepentant Stalinist architect. This is an abominable opinion, but a coherent one. The other kind stated that his incredible body of work should be separated from his deplorable political beliefs. This is flimsy and inconsistent criticism. The architecture of Niemeyer, as of Le Corbusier’s, is not only a derivation of his ideological leanings but also a platform for his desired alliance between the architects and the tyrants. Le Corbusier served both Stalin and the collaborationist Vichy regime. “France needs a father”, pleaded the architect shortly before the publication of The Radiant City, whose title page says: “This book is dedicated to the Authority.” Here is the key to deciphering his work, and Niemeyer’s.
The Piazza della Signoria, which has no trees, is a wonder of the dessicated human spirit. You don’t need to be a romantic, nor do you need to shed any tears for the “green”, to be repulsed by the brutality of Niemeyer’s modernism. One doesn’t need to subscribe to the whole set of principles of organic architecture to repudiate the ignominious monumentalism of the Modern Temple. “The plan shall govern. The street must disappear”, wrote Le Corbusier in 1924, pointing to the direction adopted by Niemeyer. The destructive impulse is contained in each of the architectural interventions of both designers, whether the result happens to be beautiful or, more often, not.
Niemeyer’s buildings never establish meaningful or functional relationships with the surrounding structures, which he despises because they didn’t originate from his pencil. The residual spaces between volumes never acquire identity, functioning only as belvederes for contemplating his monuments to Authority. The larger the scale of the project, the more evident his “anachronistic modernity.” “The guiding role of open spaces, with its streets, squares, meeting places and markets” is diluted in Brasilia, “in a space without limits or other function than to frame isolated and sculptural buildings.” (J. C. Durand & E. Salvatori).
Niemeyer’s aesthetics make a political statement. In Brasilia, as James Holston has emphasized, the typological contrast between public buildings (“exceptional, figural objects of monumental nature”) and residential buildings (“repeated, serial objects of trivial nature”) epitomize the regressive utopia desired by the architect. A letter by Alberto Moravia to an Italian newspaper at the time of Brasilia’s inauguration as the capital noted that the city made ​​people feel “like the tiny inhabitants of Lilliput” seeking, “in the empty sky, the threatening form of a new Gulliver.” 
Read more at:

Time for a Cease-Fire In the War on Poverty

The poor would be better off without it
The typical fate of a big government program: it produced the exact opposite effect of what was officially 'intended' 
By Bill Boner
The unemployment numbers came out on Friday. They were worse than expected. Only 74,000 jobs added – about one-third of the consensus estimate. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate – the amount of people either employed or actively seeking work – went from 66% to 62%. That's a loss of about 5 million from the available workforce … or about 100,000 a month.
In December, more people left the job market than entered it. So, the official "unemployment" rate went down. The bad news had little effect on stocks.
Investors thought it was good news, but they weren't quite sure. On the one hand, it seemed to point toward more EZ money from the Fed. On the other, even taking the effects of bad weather into account, it looks as though the economy could be weaker than commonly thought.
The 'War' Goes On
Meanwhile, the 50th anniversary of the feds' "War on Poverty" came and went last week, without much notice. No flags flying. No speeches. Veterans on both sides took their money and kept quiet. But that didn't stop hands from wringing, hearts from bleeding and bellies from aching.
So, the "war" goes on.
But as in many other of the feds' wars, we don't know which side we should be on. We've got nothing against poverty. Then, again, we've got nothing against wealth either. People should be able to decide for themselves what they want out of life. But during the Johnson administration the rich got the idea that they should exterminate poverty … or at least gain a political advantage by appearing to try to do so.
So it was that on January 8, 1964, LBJ declared war: 
This administration today, here and now, declares unconditional war on poverty in America.” 
That was 50 years and $20 trillion ago.
Jesus Christ warned us that eradicating poverty wouldn't be easy. "The poor will always be with you," he said. So far, it looks like he was right.
About 15% of Americans still live in poverty – roughly the same percentage as in the mid-1960s. And that's despite the government spending about $1 trillion a year on eradicating poverty!
A New Kind of 'Poor'
But wait. It depends on how you define "poor." What we take from the recent article in the Wall Street Journal by senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation Robert Rector, titled "How the War on Poverty Was Lost," is that the "poor" are too rich for their own good.
The feds spend $9,000 a year on each of the roughly 100 million recipients of their various means-tested welfare programs. That, and other sources of revenue, give the typical poor person a rather rich life. According to Rector, the typical American living below the poverty level: 
“… lives in a house or apartment that is in good repair, equipped with air-conditioning and cable TV. His home is larger than the home of the average non-poor French, German or English man. He has a car, multiple color TVs and a DVD player. More than half the poor have computers and a third have wide, flat-screen TVs. The overwhelming majority of poor Americans are not undernourished and did not suffer from hunger for even one day of the previous year.” 
Sound pretty good? Yes, but there's more to life than creature comforts. And by attempting to exterminate material poverty, the feds created a new kind of poverty that is far worse.
We have some experience of it: In the 1980s and 1990s we lived in a war zone – a "ghetto" in northwest Baltimore. There, too, there was plenty of money – at least, there was enough to buy gadgets and drugs. Everybody had a TV. And everybody had alcohol and drugs. There was a whooping party whenever the welfare checks arrived. But it was not a very nice place to live.
When you pay people not to do much, that is what they do. And then, after doing so little for so long, they can do nothing else.
Tales from Druid Hill
 The Druid Hill area of Baltimore, where we lived for about 10 years, was the front line in the War on Poverty. Few people had jobs. Instead, they hung around. Idleness begat disorder. And trouble. In personal lives, family lives and the life of the community. People slept at all hours … and stayed up late at night partying. Children were poorly tended – often out on the street in the middle of the night. The sidewalks were trashy and dangerous. Gunshots were frequent. Violent deaths were not uncommon. The red and blue lights of the gendarmes were never far away.
It had its charms. One of our neighbors had murdered another man in a drug dispute. He seemed like a nice fellow – at least as long as you didn't get him too mad. He and a few others formed a kind of glee club … singing Motown hits until they passed out drunk.
They could get drunk every night because they didn't have to get up to go to work in the morning. The work world imposes order. You have to get up in the morning. You have to get along with your coworkers. And you have to get the job done. Mother Necessity is a powerfully civilizing force. Take her out of a community, and the place goes to hell.
Marriage, too, comes with civilizing requirements. You have to get along with your spouse. You have to learn to live together. You have to take responsibility for other people … and cooperate to get the job done. But there were almost no marriages and no jobs in Druid Hill. Why?
The War on Poverty made them unnecessary. You didn't need to have a job to support yourself. And you didn't need to get married to support your children either. The feds would do it for you. Rector totes up the consequences: 
“In 1963, 6% of American children were born out of wedlock. Today the number stands at 41%. As benefits swelled, welfare increasingly served as a substitute for a bread-winning husband in the home. [...] Children raised by a single parent are three times as likely to end up in jail and 50% more likely to be poor as adults.” 
The War on Poverty? The poor would be better off without it.
And as this chart shows, it didn't come cheap.
Read more at:

The tide is rising for America’s libertarians

The new spirit in a rising climate of anti-politics has become an attitude, rather than a movement
By Edward Luce
Robert Nozick, the late US libertarian, smoked pot while he was writing Anarchy, State and Utopia. He would applaud the growth of libertarianism among today’s young Americans. Whether it is their enthusiasm for legalised marijuana and gay marriage – both spreading across the US at remarkable speed – or their scepticism of government, US millennials no longer follow President Barack Obama’s cue. Most of America’s youth revile the Tea Party, particularly its south-dominated nativist core. But they are not big-government activists either. If there is a new spirit in America’s rising climate of anti-politics, it is libertarian.
On the face of it this ought to pose a bigger challenge to the Republican party – at least for its social conservative wing. Mr Obama may have disappointed America’s young, particularly the millions of graduates who have failed to find good jobs during his presidency. But he is no dinosaur. In contrast, Republicans such as Rick Santorum, the former presidential hopeful, who once likened gay sex to “man on dog”, elicit pure derision. Even moderate Republicans, such as Chris Christie, who until last week was the early frontrunner for the party’s 2016 nomination, are considered irrelevant. Whether Mr Christie was telling the truth last week, when he denied knowledge of his staff’s role in orchestrating a punitive local traffic jam, is beside the point. Mr Christie’s Sopranos brand of New Jersey politics is not tailored to the Apple generation.
The opposite is true of Rand Paul, the Kentucky senator, whose chances of taking the 2016 prize rose with Mr Christie’s dented fortunes last week. Unlike Ron Paul, the senator’s father, who still managed to garner a large slice of the youth vote in 2008, Rand Paul eschews the more outlandish fringes of libertarian thought. Rather than promising an isolationist US withdrawal from the world, he touts a more moderate “non-interventionism”. Instead of pledging to end fiat money, he promises to audit the US Federal Reserve – “mend the Fed”, rather than “end the Fed”. Both find echo among the Y generation. So too does his alarmism about the US national debt. Far from being big spenders, millennials are more concerned about US debt than other generations, according to polls. They are also strongly in favour of free trade. More than a third of the Republican party now identifies as libertarian, according to the Cato Institute. Just under a quarter of Americans do so too, says Gallup.
All of which looks ominous for Ted Cruz, the Texan Republican whose lengthy filibuster against Obamacare last year lit the fuse for the US government shutdown. Mr Cruz, also a 2016 aspirant, leads the pugilistic wing of the Republican party that is prepared to burn the house down in order to save the ranch. Although also a Tea Partier, Mr Paul is cultivating a sunnier Reaganesque optimism that draws on the deep roots of US libertarianism. His brand of politics also strikes a chord with those who fear the growth of the US surveillance state – the types who view Edward Snowden (another millennial) as a hero rather than a traitor. Last year the US House of Representatives came within 12 votes of passing a bill to defund the National Security Agency. Mr Paul led the bill in the Senate. Next time they could succeed.
Read more at:

Europe’s Future: Inflation And Wealth Taxes

This time is no different than other cases of highly indebted countries in Europe’s history – just look to the post-War examples as similar cases in point
by David Howden
Tax burdens are so high that it might not be possible to pay off the high levels of indebtedness in most of the Western world. At least, that is the conclusion of a new IMF paper from Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff.
Reinhart and Rogoff gained recent fame for their book “This Time It’s Different”, in which they argued that high levels of public debt have historically been associated with reduced growth opportunities.
As they now note, “The size of the problem suggests that restructurings will be needed, for example, in the periphery of Europe, far beyond anything discussed in public to this point.”Up to this point in the Eurocrisis the primary tools used to rescue profligate countries have included increased taxes, EU and IMF bailouts, and haircuts on government debt.
These bailouts have largely exacerbated the debt problems that existed five short years ago. Indeed, as Reinhart and Rogoff well note, the once fiscally sound North of Europe is now increasingly unable to continue shouldering the debts of its Southern neighbours.
General government debt (% GDP)
Source: Eurostat (2012)
Six European countries currently have a government debt to GDP ratio – a metric popularlised by Reinhart and Rogoff to signal reduced growth prospects – of over 90%. Countries that were relatively debt-free just five short years ago are now encumbered by the debt repayments necessitated by bailouts. Ireland is a case in point – as recently as 2007 its government debt to GDP ratio was below 25%. Six years later that figure stands north of 120%! “Fiscally secure” Scandinavia should keep in mind that fortunes can change quickly, as happened to the luck of the Irish.
The debt crisis to date has been mitigated in large part by tax increases and transfers from the wealthy “core” of Europe to the periphery. The problem with tax increases is that they cannot continue unabated.
Total government tax revenue (% GDP)
Source: Eurostat (2012)
Already in Europe there are seven countries where tax revenues are greater than 48% of GDP. There once was a time when only Scandinavia was chided for its high tax regimes and large public sectors. Today both Austria and France have more than half of their economies involved in the public sector and financed through taxes. (Note also that as they both run government budget deficits the actual size of their governments is greater yet.)
Read more at:



We Will Be Told Hyperinflation Is Necessary, Proper, Patriotic, And Ethical

Each round of money printing eventually feeds back into the price system, creating demand for another round of money printing ... and another ... and another

by Patrick Barron
Hyperinflation leads to the complete breakdown in the demand for a currency, which means simply that no one wishes to hold it. Everyone wants to get rid of that kind of money as fast as possible. Prices, denominated in the hyper-inflated currency, suddenly and dramatically go through the roof. The most famous examples, although there are many others, are Germany in the early 1920s and Zimbabwe just a few years ago. German Reichsmarks and Zim dollars were printed in million and even trillion unit denominations.
We may scoff at such insanity and assume that America could never suffer from such an event. We are modern. We know too much. Our monetary leaders are wise and have unprecedented power to prevent such an awful outcome.
Think again.
Our monetary leaders do not understand the true nature of money and banking; thus, theyadvocate monetary expansion as the cure for every economic ill. The multiple quantitative easing programs perfectly illustrate this mindset. Furthermore, our monetary leaders actually advocate a steady increase in the price level, what is popularly known as inflation. Any perceived reduction in the inflation rate is seen as a potentially dangerous deflationary trend, which must be countered by an increase in the money supply, a reduction in interest rates, and/or quantitative easing. So an increase in inflation will be viewed as success, which must be built upon to ensure that it continues. This mindset will prevail even when inflation runs at extremely high rates.
Like previous hyperinflations throughout time, the actions that produce an American hyperinflation will be seen as necessary, proper, patriotic, and ethical; just as they were seen by the monetary authorities in Weimar Germany and modern Zimbabwe. Neither the German nor the Zimbabwean monetary authorities were willing to admit that there was any alternative to their inflationist policies. The same will happen in America.
The most likely trigger to hyperinflation is an increase in prices following a loss of confidence in the dollar overseas and its repatriation to our shores. Committed to a low interest rate policy, our monetary authorities will dismiss the only legitimate option to printing more money — allowing interest rates to rise. Only the noninflationary investment by the public in government bonds would prevent a rise in the price level, but such an action would trigger a recession. This necessary and inevitable event will be vehemently opposed by our government, just as it has been for several years to this date.
Instead, the government will demand and the Fed will acquiesce in even further expansions to the money supply via direct purchases of these government bonds, formerly held by our overseas trading partners. This will produce even higher levels of inflation, of course. Then, in order to prevent the loss of purchasing power by politically connected groups, the government will print even more money to fund special payouts to these groups. For example, government will demand that Social Security beneficiaries get their automatic increases; likewise for the quarter of the population getting disability benefits. Military and government employee pay will be increased. Funding for government cost-plus contracts will ratchet up. As the dollar drops in value overseas, local purchases by our overextended military will cost more in dollar terms (as the dollar buys fewer units of the local currencies), necessitating an emergency increase in funding. Of course, such action is necessary, proper, patriotic, and ethical.
Other federal employee sectors like air traffic controllers and the TSA workers will likely threaten to go on strike and block access to air terminal gates unless they get a pay increase to restore the purchasing power of their now meager salaries.
State and local governments will also be under stress to increase the pay of their public safety workers or suffer strikes which would threaten social chaos. Not having the ability to increase taxes or print their own money, the federal government will be asked to step in and print more money to placate the police and firemen. Doing so will be seen as necessary, proper, patriotic, and ethical.
Each round of money printing eventually feeds back into the price system, creating demand for another round of money printing ... and another ... and another, with each successive increase larger than the previous one, as is the nature of foolishly trying to restore money’s purchasing power with even more money. The law of diminishing marginal utility applies to money as it does to all goods and services. The political and social pressure to print more money to prevent a loss of purchasing power by the politically connected and government workers will be seen as absolutely necessary, proper, patriotic, and ethical.
Many will not survive. Just as in Weimar Germany, the elderly who are retired on the fruits of a lifetime of savings will find themselves impoverished to the point of despair. Suicides among the elderly will be common. Prostitution will increase, as one’s body becomes the only saleable resource for many. Guns will disappear from gun shops, if not through panic buying then by outright theft by armed gangs, many of whom may be your previously law-abiding neighbors.
Businesses will be vilified for raising prices. Goods will disappear from the market as producer revenue lags behind the increase in the cost of replacement resources. Government’s knee-jerk solution is to impose wage and price controls, which simply drive the remaining goods and services from the white market to the gangster-controlled black market. Some will sit out the insanity. Better to build inventory than sell it at a loss. Better still to close up shop and wait out the insanity. So government does the necessary, proper, patriotic, and ethical thing: it prints even more money and prices increase still more.
The money you have become accustomed to using and saving eventually becomes worthless; it no longer serves as a medium of exchange. No one will accept it. Yet the government continues to print it in ever greater quantities and attempts to force the citizens to accept it. Our military forces overseas cannot purchase food or electrical power with their now worthless dollars. They become a real danger to the local inhabitants, most of whom are unarmed. The US takes emergency steps to evacuate dependents back to the States. It even considers abandoning our bases and equipment and evacuating our uniformed troops when previously friendly allies turn hostile.
Read more at :


Friday, January 10, 2014

Leading from Behind

Third Time a Charm?
In his reluctance to brandish America’s world leadership credentials at every turn, President Obama is tapping into an interesting if frustrating strain of American history—and it just might help America learn the wisdom of great power prudence and humility.
By OWEN HARRIESTOM SWITZER
A Washington adage holds that someone commits a “gaffe” when he inadvertently tells the truth. This seemed to be what a U.S. policymaker did two decades ago when he mused about the limits to U.S. power in the post-Cold War era. On May 25, 1993, just four months into the Clinton Administration, a certain senior government official—the new Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs and a former president of the Council on Foreign Relations—spoke freely to about fifty journalists on condition that they refer to him only as a “senior State Department official.” Gaffe or no gaffe, Peter Tarnoff’s frank remarks at the Overseas Writers Club luncheon set off serious political turbulence in the foreign policy establishment.
Tarnoff’s message was that, with the Cold War over, America should no longer be counted on to take the lead in regional disputes unless a direct threat to its national interest inhered in the circumstances. To avoid over-reaching, he warned, U.S. policymakers should define the country’s interests with clarity and without a residue of excessive sentiment, concentrating its resources on matters vital to its own well-being. That meant Washington would “define the extent of its commitment and make a commitment commensurate with those realities. This may on occasion fall short of what some Americans would like and others would hope for”, he recognized. The U.S. government would, if necessary, act unilaterally where its own strategic and economic interests were directly threatened, but it would otherwise pursue a foreign policy at the same time less interventionist and more multilateral. 
President Clinton’s deferral to European demands on the Bosnian crisis, Tarnoff added, marked a new era in which Washington would not automatically lead in international crises. “We simply don’t have the leverage, we don’t have the influence, we don’t have the inclination to use military force, and we certainly don’t have the money to bring to bear the kind of pressure that will produce positive results anytime soon.” 
At first glance, there was nothing new here. As far back as the Nixon Doctrine, U.S. officials had spoken of more voluble burden-sharing, of asking allies to do more on their own behalf, and of a variable-speed American foreign policy activism that could be fine-tuned to circumstances. And then, within a year of the Soviet Union’s collapse, Bill Clinton won a presidential election in part because he promised to “focus like a laser” on domestic issues. Neither during Nixon’s tenure nor in 1993 did anyone use the phrase “to lead from behind”, but this new locution is consonant with the basic thinking of those earlier formulations. In some ways, “leading from behind” is the third coming of a seasoned and generally sensible idea.In some ways, “leading from behind” is the third coming of a seasoned and generally sensible idea.
Nor was Tarnoff saying anything outside the implicit consensus of presumed foreign policy “wise men” at the time. Many dedicated Cold Warriors and leading foreign affairs experts, Republicans and Democrats alike, had been arguing for the previous three years that, having just won a great victory, it was time for America to embrace a more restricted view of the nation’s interests and commitments. “With a return to ‘normal’ times”, Jeane Kirkpatrick argued in The National Interest in 1990, “we can again become a normal nation—and take care of pressing problems of education, family, industry and technology. . . . It is time to give up the dubious benefits of superpower status and become again an . . . open American republic.”Nathan Glazer proposed that it was “time to withdraw to something closer to the modest role that the Founding Fathers intended.” William Hyland, editor of Foreign Affairs at the time, wrote, “What is definitely required is a psychological turn inwards.” And according even to Henry Kissinger, the definition of the U.S. national interest in the emerging era of multipolarity would be different from the two-power world of the Cold War—“more discriminating in its purpose, less cataclysmic in its strategy and, above all, more regional in its design.” 
Notwithstanding all this, and no doubt to his own surprise and chagrin, Tarnoff’s remarks started a firestorm of fear and indignation almost the moment reports of his background briefing hit the press. As one Australian newspaper correspondent observed at the time, “the reaction to his words could scarcely have been more dramatic if he had stripped naked and break-danced around the room.”1
Talking heads denounced not just Tarnoff but the new President for whom he spoke as “isolationist” and “declinist”; some beheld a “creeping Jimmy Carterism” with an Arkansas accent. Foreign embassies went into overdrive as diplomats relayed the news back home. The White House quickly attempted to distance itself from what its press secretary dismissed as “Brand X.” The Secretary of State, Warren Christopher, stayed up all night making personal phone calls to journalists and appearing on late-night television to reassure the world that America’s global leadership role was undiminished. In a hastily rewritten speech, Christopher pointedly used some variant of the word “lead” 23 times. Meanwhile, rumors swirled that the official (only later identified as Tarnoff) was about to lose his job. Yet for all his allegedly neo-isolationist sins, the hapless official remained employed. No apology or explanation was forthcoming.
Read more at:

How Can I Possibly Be Free?

Without baggage, there would be no content
By Raymond Tallis
This essay is an attempt to persuade you of something that in practice you cannot really doubt: your belief that you have free will. It will try to reassure you that it is not naïve to feel that you are responsible, and indeed morally responsible, for your actions. And it will provide you with arguments that will help you answer those increasing numbers of people who say that our free will is an illusion, or that belief in it is an adaptive delusion implanted by evolution.
The case presented will not be a knock-down proof — indeed, it outlines an understanding of free will that is rather elusive. It is of course much easier to construct simple theoretical proofs purporting to show that we are not free than it is to see how, in practice, we really are. For this reason, the argument here will take you on something of a journey.
That journey will provide reasons for resisting the claim that a deterministic view of the material universe is incompatible with free will. Much of the apparent power of deterministic arguments comes from their focusing on isolated actions, or even components of actions, that have been excised from their context in the world of the self, so that they are more easily caught in the net of material causation.
There is another challenge arising from a deeper argument, which seems to hold even if the universe is not deterministic — namely, that unless we are self-caused, we cannot be held responsible for what we do. To answer this challenge, we must find the key to freedom in first-person being — in the very “I” for whom freedom is an issue, the “I” who is capable of orchestrating the sophisticated intentions, choices, and actions required to, for instance, publish an essay denying its own freedom. The demand for complete self-causation places impossible requirements upon someone before he can count as free — requirements, what is more, that would actually empty freedom of its content and hence of any meaning.
Central to the defense of freedom against the challenges of determinism and the requirement for total self-determination will be to see how it is that we are, rather, self-developing — as when we consciously train the mechanisms of our own bodies to carry out our wishes even without conscious thought — so that we are able to make natural events pushed by natural causes the result of human actions led by human reasons.
We must start by characterizing the freedom that we are concerned with. First, if I am truly free, I am the origin of those events I deem to be my actions. Consequently, I am accountable for them: I have ownership of them; I own up to them. Second, they are expressive of me, in the sense that they cannot be separated from that which I feel myself to be. In this regard, they are connected with my motives, feelings, and expressed aims. My actions can be made sense of biographically.
But it is not enough that my actions originate with, and are expressive of, me. I would not be free if all my willing just brought about what was already inevitable. A truly free act is also one that deflects the course of events. So I am free if, as a result of many actions that are themselves free to deflect the course of events, and of which I am the origin, I have an important hand in shaping my life. This is what is meant by “being free.”
Freedom, Determinism, and Moral Responsibility
There are many versions of the deterministic argument against free will, but the most straightforward one is as follows. Since every event has a cause, actions, which are simply a subcategory of events, also have causes. Furthermore, the causal ancestry of actions is not confined to what we would regard as ourselves, because we ourselves are the products of causes that are in turn the products of other causes ad infinitum. The passage from cause to effect is determined by unalterable laws of nature. For a determinist, even intentions are simply another means by which the laws of nature operate through us. In short, we are not the origins of our actions and we do not deflect the course of events, but are merely conduits through which the processes of nature operate, little parishes of a boundless causal web arising from the Big Bang and perhaps terminating in the Big Crunch.
Most philosophers, then, think that physical determinism is incompatible with free will. The incompatibilists fall into two camps: the libertarians who save freedom by denying determinism, and the skeptics who affirm determinism and so deny freedom. As we will see, however, there is reason to believe that determinism and free will are compatible, since determinism applies only to the material world understood in material terms.
The traditional deterministic arguments against free will have recently been dressed up in some very fancy clothes. Evolutionary theory, genetics, and neuroscience have been invoked in combination to create what we might dub “biodeterminism.” According to biodeterministic thinking, our behavior originates in the evolutionary imperative of survival: it is the unchosen result of the fact that we, and in particular our brains, are so designed as to maximize the chances of replicating our genome. Primarily through their phenotypical expression in our brains, it is our genes, not we, that call the shots.
The attacks on free will that arise from neuroscience go beyond evolutionary psychology, and any adequate account of them would require far more than the space of this essay. But there is one particular set of observations that has captured the deterministic imagination and deserves special scrutiny: those made by the late University of California, San Francisco neurophysiologist Benjamin Libet on the relationship between intention and action. For a long time, it has been known that the mental preparation to act is correlated with a particular brain wave — the so-called “readiness potential.” In Libet’s experiment, the action studied was very simple. Subjects were asked to flex their wrists when they felt inclined to do so. They were asked also to note the time on a clock when they experienced the conscious intention to flex their wrists. Libet found that the readiness potential, as timed by the neurophysiologist, actually occurred before the conscious decision, as timed by the subject. There was a consistent difference of over a third of a second.
The interpretation of these findings has been a matter of intense controversy, much of it over the methodology. Some have argued that, since the brain activity associated with certain voluntary actionsprecedes the conscious intention to perform the actions, we therefore do not truly initiate them. At best, we can only inhibit ongoing activity: we have “free won’t” rather than “free will.” But many others have denied even this margin of negative freedom and have seen Libet’s experiments as confirming what we feared: that our brains are calling the shots. We are merely the site of those events we call “actions.”
Another attack on the notion of free will, from Galen Strawson, a professor of philosophy at the University of Reading, goes beyond the arguments from determinism and purports to prove the inherent impossibility of freedom and moral responsibility so long as we are not self-caused. Strawson’s basic argument, articulated in numerous articles and books, can be understood as a syllogism: First, in order to be truly morally responsible for one’s actions, one would have to be causa sui, the cause of oneself. Second, nothing can be causa sui, the cause of itself. Therefore no one can be truly morally responsible. Performing acts for which one is morally responsible requires, Strawson argues, that we should be self-determining — but this is impossible because the notion of true self-determination runs into an infinite regress.
Strawson’s argument is flawed, as we shall see, because its premises are flawed. But it is nevertheless useful because it clarifies the underlying force of deterministic arguments: that whatever I am has been caused by events, processes, and laws that I am not — and that in order to be free, I have to escape having been caused. Strawson’s argument is the reduction to absurdity of deterministic assumptions, for in the end such arguments require that in order to be free, I have to escape being determined, and in order to escape being determined, I have to have brought myself into being — but in order to have brought myself into being, of course, I have to be God. If I am to be responsible for anything that I do, I have to be responsible for everything that I am, including my very existence. Since I cannot pre-exist my own existence so as to bring my existence about, this is a requirement that cannot be met.
This argument from self-determination will be dealt with by looking a little harder at the question of whether or not a self is causa sui, and, closely related, at whether a self’s actions can be seen as expressing itself. A self is certainly not the cause of itself overall and ultimately — but it is the cause of itself in a way that is sufficient to underpin free will.
The Origins of Actions in the Contents of Consciousness
The case for determinism will prevail over the case for freedom so long as we look for freedom in a world devoid of the first-person understanding — and so we will have to reacquaint ourselves with the perspective that comes most naturally to us. Recall that, if we are to be correct in our intuition that we are free, the issue of whether or not we are the origin of our actions is central. Seen as pieces of the material world, we appear to be stitched into a boundless causal net extending from the beginning of time through eternity. How on earth can we then be points of origin? We seem to be a sensory input linked to motor output, with nothing much different in between. So how on earth can the actor truly initiate anything? How can he say that the act in a very important sense begins with him, that he owns it and is accountable for it — that “The buck starts here”?
Read more at: