By John C. Dvorak
Google has managed to get its self-driving car
licensed in Nevada, though someone must still be in the
car at all times.
Essentially, the automobile was not given a license, but rather a learner's
permit. It's a start.
Google's whole robocar idea
has been overlooked in general. This is probably one of the greatest inventions
of the last 100 years and people are fairly ho-hum about it. In fact, it
addresses numerous transportation issues and is simply revolutionary. Google is
poised to make more money with this device someday than it ever has with
search.
I predict that at some point
in the future, nobody will drive cars. We'll get into these things and program
(or tell) the car where we want to go. Fleets of cars could actually be shared
the way limousines are shared. You could have your car drop you off at the
airport and go home, then return to pick you up at a later date.
The ramifications of this are enormous. It affects parking and its infrastructure. Instead of parking so you can run into the bakery, the car will drop you off and circle the block. You'd really never have to park again. And while it may seem to be a recipe for congestion, just imagine a world full of Zipcars that you get in and out on a whim.
Someday in the future, a son
will ask a father, "Daddy, what's a taxi cab?" There will be no such
service anymore, although, I can picture NYC crawling with yellow robocars.
There will be a lot of
adjusting to do but one thing is for certain: the 30,000 plus traffic accident
deaths will be greatly reduced. The robocars should be able to eliminate most
accidents and make going from place to place more efficient, saving money and
time.
Again, why isn't everyone
jumping for joy about this development?
I think this is because this
invention, which only became technologically feasible over the last few
decades, has caught everyone off guard. The public is stunned by the
development. When I was a kid, there was talk of developing a highway system
with automated transportation. People always thought, however, that it would
take a slew of sensors in the road and a kind of railway automation. Cars on
invisible tracks, as it were.
But this is not the way Google
does it. It uses radar, sensors, imagers, and computing power independent of
sensors outside the car. If you want to get some sense of this, go to a Ford dealer, get in one of the
self-parking cars, and let it park for you. It's kind of interesting that it
works perfectly. Having the car drive itself around town is not that far
removed from the radar-equipped self-parking car.
In the few years we'll have to
wait for these cars to be available to the public, you can be certain that one
of the test cars will be rammed by some other human-driven car. Investigations
will ensue, especially if someone dies. Headlines will plaster news sites:
"Is the Google Car Too Dangerous?" or some such sensationalism.
Man-on-the-street interviews
will feature doubting Thomas' questioning the whole idea. "If God wanted
the car to drive itself, why does it have a steering wheel?"
Make no mistake, though.
Within 10 years, cars will be driving themselves all over the place. Within 20
years, a car with an actual driver may be in the minority. This is one big deal
and one of the most important developments in history.
Once you get a learner's
permit, like the car in Nevada, you usually get your actual license within a
year or two. It's coming.
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