By Mark Steyn
Some years ago in
this space, I cited a famous Gerald Ford line he liked to use when trying to
ingratiate himself with conservative audiences: "A government big enough
to give you everything you want is big enough to take away everything you
have." And I posited an alternative thesis: A government big enough to
give you everything you want isn't big enough to get you to give any of it
back.
That's what the political class of Europe's
cradle-to-grave welfare states have spent the last three years doing: trying to
persuade their electorates to give some of it back. Not a lot, just a bit. In
France, President Sarkozy raised the retirement age from 60 to 62. French life
expectancy is 80.7, so you still get to enjoy a quarter of your entire human
existence as one long holiday weekend. In Greece, where those in officially
designated "hazardous" professions such as hairdressing and
TV-announcing get to retire at 50, the government raised the possibility of ending
the agreeable arrangement by which public-sector employees receive 14 monthly
paychecks per annum. They didn't actually do it but the mere suggestion that
Greeks should, like lesser mortals, be bound by temporal reality was enough for
the voters to rebel.
M. Sarkozy lost to a socialist pledged to restore retirement at 60, and in Greece the government got swept aside not by its traditional opposition but by various unlovely alternatives. The Communist party got 26 seats. Syriza, a "Coalition of the Radical Left" comprising the Trotskyite "Anticapitalist Political Group," the Maoist "Communist Organization of Greece," the Goreist "Renewing Communist Ecological Left," plus various splinter groups too loopy to mention wound up with 52 seats and the second-largest caucus.
A month ago, a mere 4 percent of European Union citizens lived under left-wing politicians. But, after a three-year flirtation with "austerity," the citizenry has decided that a government big enough to give you everything you want suits them just fine, and they're not gonna give any of it back. Just keep those 14 monthly checks per annum coming (it counts for your government pension, too) until they're dead. If it bankrupts those left behind, who cares? Not my problem.
Even before the revolt of the non-workers, "austerity" was more honored in the breach. Readers who deplore Boehner and Romney as RINO squishes should see what passes for "conservative" in Europe. Whatever principles Sarkozy appeared to have if only by comparison with the cynical old rouĂ© Chirac were long fled by the time of his reelection campaign. France hasn't balanced a budget since de Gaulle's successor, M. Pompidou, died in office (for American historians, that's back in the Partridge Family era). Government spending accounts for 56 percent of the economy — and, if you take into account all unfunded liabilities, French debt totals 549 percent of GDP (in Europe, second only to Greece's 875 percent). And yet, in the age of "austerity," every single presidential candidate was running on an economic platform that would increase those numbers.
The "extreme right" Marine Le Pen of the
"far right" National Front? Oh, if only. They don't like immigrants,
but in every other respect they're to the left of the incoming socialist. You'd
be surprised how many of Europe's alleged "extreme right" parties
that applies to: These "right-wingers" are culturally protectionist
and economically protectionist, or, if you prefer, culturally nationalist and economically
statist — like the old British Labour party and most conventional
left-of-center Continental parties were before they got the Eutopian fever. Now
they've abandoned that market segment to fellows like Greece's hilariously
named "Golden Dawn" party, which won 21 seats on a platform blaming
the country's current woes on the Industrial Revolution, the
"so-called" Enlightenment, and foreign "usurers." Usury is
customarily understood as the practice of charging excessive interest. Golden
Dawn, like most Greeks, feels the Germans and the EU and the IMF should carry
on lending them money but at no interest. No, wait, forget the lending:
They should give it.
Nationalist politics on transnationalist welfare does
not sound an obviously winning formula. But we'll see more of it before
Europe's done. In the first round of the French election, Marine Le Pen got 18
percent to M. Sarkozy's 27. What is it that makes one a "fringe"
"extremist" and the other "mainstream"? Nine points? Well,
she'll close that gap in the years ahead. In response, a beleaguered political
class will attempt to shift its spending to a European level: Joining the EU's
foreign minister and the nascent EU diplomatic corps there will be an EU
finance minister and EU bonds and EU taxes. It will be even more unsustainable,
but for the Eurocrats transnational unsustainability will be perceived as being
more comfortably insulated from the whims of their "citizens." Where,
after all, would one go to vote down a "European" tax?
So back at the dreary national level there will be
more parties like Greece's Golden Dawn and Bulgaria's Ataka (National Attack
Union), whose official logos slyly evoke the swastika while bending this or
that prong just enough to preserve deniability. Which seems fair enough, as
Greek "nationalism" is premised on the Germans' ability to fund it.
Meanwhile, youth unemployment in France is already 22
percent; Sweden, 23 percent; Poland, 27 percent; Hungary, 28 percent; Ireland,
30 percent; Bulgaria, 33 percent; Slovakia, 34 percent; Portugal, 36 percent;
Italy, 36 percent; Greece, 51 percent; Spain, 51.1 percent. For this
generation, there will be no Golden Dawn — but I wouldn't rule out an Ataka.
The aging beneficiaries of the Eutopian moment may be disinclined to give any
of it back. Sooner or later, their successors will take it.
"The aging beneficiaries of the Eutopian moment may be disinclined to give any of it back. Sooner or later, their successors will take it." Thumbs up!
ReplyDelete"Thumbs up!"
ReplyDeleteAssuming they will take it back without too much violence
Little hope for that; when you pit economics+civilization against biology, biology ALWAYS wins.
ReplyDeleteAnd since young people are progressively shut off the system, the accumulated impoverishment, restriction of reproductive rights (after all who can form a family when there is a real chance they will be living on the streets?) will ignite and fuel the fire of "revolution" (or biological adjustment in my humble bioscience book). At that point biology will take over the thinking of the other side and things will resolve themselves in the way that biology solves issues of competition over scarce resources.
No disagreement on this one.
ReplyDeleteStill, this one will not be confined within this generational confrontation. It will involve many more issues, like the role of government, the role of state controlled banking, the welfare state, military spending etc.
I believe that the final result will depend more on culture than politics. Liberty and prosperity are possible only for the societies that are prepared to claim them.