Taliban seen waltzing in Tehran

Omar’s blue-eyed boys surface above the radar

By M K Bhadrakumar

The equation between Tehran and the Taliban has always been a matter of speculation. There has been  this notion that the Taliban subscribe to the Wahhabi faith and are virulently anti-Shi’ite and, therefore, they will be on hostile terms till eternity with Iran. But this was never really the case. 

At any rate, the Taliban comprise many factions and it all depends on who one is referring to. As for Iranian intelligence, they’d sup with the devil if need be in the national security interests. 

Conceivably, below-the-radar contacts have been kept up by the Iranians with the Taliban through the past decade. Neither side publicized it, though. Therefore, what happened last week isn’t  earthshaking  – that Tehran has hosted a Taliban delegation. But the stunning part is that the Iranian side publicized it first, on Saturday (here).   

The Taliban confirmed the information earlier today. Presumably, Mullah Omar decided to come clean. It now appears that many a Taliban delegation would have visited Iran from time to time. It also transpires that  Pakistani intelligence was in the loop all along.  

What is of interest is that Iran hosted the Taliban representatives based in Qatar. They are Omar’s blue-eyed boys. This does raise some serious issues. 

After having enjoyed such lavish Qatari hospitality — according to Rod Norland of New York Times (here)  –  it is highly unlikely that the Taliban kept the Emir in Doha in the dark and simply sneaked out to catch a flight to Tehran. 

No, Sir, it doesn’t need much ingenuity to comprehend that the Qataris okayed the trip of the 4 key Taliban reps.Now comes the most intriguing part: If the Qatari Emir knew, would he have kept the matter hidden from the Big Boss in Washington? Impossible, inconceivable, implausible, improbable, incogitable, incredible. You may choose the appropriate word.

Put differently, what we are witnessing is the proverbial tip of an iceberg. Of course, I had predicted that President Barack Obama had certain game plan in appointing Ambassador James Dobbins as the new US special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan. Yes, I did — a month ago. (Obama’s AfPak envoy may embrace Iran, Asia Times, May 7, 2013)

The curious part is that Dobbins visited Islamabad last Thursday. There was no fuss at all about his visit. He came, he met army chief Gen. Ashfaq Kayani, for sure, and he quietly left. Now, did he come to get a feedback on what transpired in Tehran? Or, did he come to discuss follow-up? 

The fact that the Iranians decided to go public remains a mystery, too. Maybe, they feared that the news would “leak” anyway — the israeli Lobby ensures that nothing about Iran remains classified for long in Washington — and that would cast the Iranian leadership in a poor light, especially in the run-up to the presidential elections in the middle of the month. 

Or, was it that some radical faction or elements within Iranian security establishment decided to torpedo the entire enterprise because they hated the idea of Iran doing business with the Americans? That also cannot be ruled out. 

But the key question is, will Iran settle for a “selective engagement” by Washington? To my mind, it won’t. Therefore, what Obama should do is to get the Iranians on board Geneva.2 on Syria so that a constructive engagement could begin. 

Indeed, the ground beneath our feet is shifting. Dobbins is on the night beat, looking for the Iranians. A stray thought had occured to me when I read a few days ago that Dobbins was in “Europe.” Did he revive his old Iranian contacts?  

But what can the Iranians do for the Americans at this point? For one thing, Iranians have influence over several Afghan groups — not necessarily Shi’ite — and that can be useful in evolving an Afghan consensus leading to a broad-based government in Kabul. 

Remember, this was exactly the role the Iranian diplomats played at the Bonn conference in close coordination with Dobbins in Dec 2001 when the Americans desperately wanted the Northern Alliance guys to step aside and make way for Hamid Karzai as the interim president in Kabul.

Dobbins later recollected those fateful days in Bonn when he all but gave up hope but his Iranian contacts literally produced the rabbit out of the hat and salvaged the US position. The Iranians apparently sorted out some really difficult people like Younus Qanooni with whom Dobbins wasn’t getting anywhere. 

In all this, it stands to reason that unlike in the past, there is much better harmony today between Iran and Pakistan, thanks to the great efforts by President Asif Ali Zardari to improve the bilateral ties. Will Nawaz Sharif share the same passion for Iran? 

NS is heavily under Saudi influence. And the Saudis will want to keep Iran out of the Afghan chessboard. The worst nightmare for the Saudis would be any proximity that may develop between the US and Iran if they work together on the Afghan problem. The Saudis fear that any US-Iranian normalization might diminish their own centrality to the US’ regional strategies.