Wednesday, December 7, 2011

What They Want To Hear


Getting the rioters to do their dirty work
The Guardian’s study of the August riots is pure advocacy research, designed to harness the power of riotous menace to chattering-class causes.
by Brendan O’Neill 
Well, that’s convenient, isn’t it? A four-month Guardian/London School of Economics study into the riots that rocked English cities in August has found that the rioters were pretty much Guardian editorials made flesh. Concerned about government cuts, annoyed by unfair policing, shocked by social inequality and outraged by the MPs’ expenses scandal, it seems the young men and women who looted shops and burnt down bus stops weren’t Thatcher’s children after all – they were Rusbridger’s children, the moral offspring of those moral guardians of chattering-class liberalism.
This is a blatant case of advocacy research, of researchers finding what they wanted to find, or at least desperately hoped to find. For months now, the Guardian has been publishing articles arguing that the rioters were politically motivated, under headlines such as ‘These riots were political’ and with claims such as ‘the looting was highly political’ and the riots were a protest against ‘brutal cuts and enforced austerity measures’. And now, lo and behold, a Guardian study, Reading the Riots, has discovered that the rioters were indeed ‘rebels with a cause’, with 86 per cent of the 270 rioters interviewed claiming the violence was caused by poverty, 85 per cent arguing that policing was the big issue, and 80 per cent saying they were riled by government policies. Reading this study, we are left to marvel either at the extraordinary perspicacity of Guardian writers, or at their ability to carry out research in such a way that it confirms their own political preconceptions.
This study looks less like a cool-headed, neutral piece of sociology, and more like a semi-conscious piece of political ventriloquism, where rioters have been coaxed to mouth the political beliefs of the middle-class commentariat. This is not to say the Guardian and LSE researchers have been purposely deceitful, inventing evidence to suit a political thesis. Advocacy research is more subtle and less conscious than that. It involves a kind of inexorable pursuit of facts that fit and evidence that helps bolster a pre-existing conviction. So mental-health charities keen to garner greater press coverage always find high levels of mental illness, children’s charities that want to raise awareness about child abuse always find rising levels of child neglect, and now Guardian researchers who want to show that they’re right to fret about Lib-Con policies and outdated policing have found that these are burning issues amongst volatile English youth, too.
In terms of both the way the research was carried out and the comments that were made by the rioters who were interviewed, we can see advocacy research in action. As one commentator has pointed out, the selection process for the study means that it is largely the ‘upper crust’ of the rioters who ended up being interviewed. Many of the 270 interviewees were recruited through their connections with community organisations, meaning they may have already been infused with, or at least influenced by, the mores and outlook of community activism, of the kind you’ll frequently find in the Guardian ‘Society’ supplement. As a Telegraph writer says, ‘The sort of rioter who agrees to be interviewed as part of a social science research project for the Guardian is unlikely to be representative’. Indeed, the Guardian admits that ‘a large majority of the 270 people interviewed for the project had not been arrested’ – that is, they’re the ones who got away with it – and they were ‘surprisingly articulate’. These are the sections of inner-city youth more likely to be au fait with the liberal classes’ explanations for the rioting.
Also, we shouldn’t underestimate the keenness of the interviewees to say things that might make their rather pointless anti-social behaviour in August appear grand and meaningful. Where some of the interviewees are fairly honest about their opportunism – one says the rioting was ‘a festival with no food, no dancing, no music, but a free shopping trip for everyone’ – many of them adopt the kind of political language that had already appeared in the serious press in an attempt to make their behaviour seem purposeful. ‘It felt like I was part of a revolution’, said one; another described his fellow looters as ‘a battalion, a squadron, a troop of men’, as if he were involved in a political war rather than an exercise in kicking in JD Sports’ windows. With the researchers talking only to ‘the right kind’ of rioters and hoping to hear a political message, and the rioters keen to parrot some of the political excuses that had already been made for their behaviour, it was inevitable that this report would end up as something like a 1.3million-wordGuardian editorial.
The Guardian writers now promoting this report as evidence that they were right all along – with one of them claiming the rioters were ‘far more politically conscious’ than many people thought – imagine that they are doing the opposite of what the Lib-Con government did in response to the riots. Where David Cameron and his cronies condemned the rioters as feral or amoral, this report and its cheerleaders claim to reveal that the riots were in fact ‘political in nature’, if also ‘destructive and incoherent’. Yet this is just the flipside of what the Lib-Cons did. Government officials claimed to see in the rioters evidence of a widespread and dangerous ‘gang culture’ (a claim that was challenged by spiked long before anybody else), while their Guardian critics claim to see confused but definitely socially-aware protesters. Both sides see simply what they want to see in the weird tumult of August, imagining that the rioters confirm either their prejudices about feckless youth or their fantasies about reruns of 1960s-style, anti-conservative uprisings.
If anything, the riot-related advocacy campaigning of the Guardian is worse than what Cameron and Co. indulged in. Where Cameron’s shallow and predictable claims that this violence all sprung from bad parenting and ‘Broken Britain’ were opportunistically designed to make him and his government look strong in retrospect, through taking on has-been rioters, the advocacy aim of this latest piece of research is somewhat more sinister. What we have here is a pretty naked attempt to add a touch of physical force and menace to Guardian-style arguments about cuts and inequality and the monarchy and MPs, an attempt to harness the violence of the rioting to the various causes of the liberal commentariat. Feeling, perhaps, that their measured, middle-class demands for nicer policing, fewer cuts to the public sector and more banker wrist-slapping lack urgency and oomph, the Guardian and others are now effectively arguing that the failure to address such issues causes actual violence; that the alienated youth of Britain not only share this general outlook, but are willing to use violence to pursue it. It is moral blackmail in place of proper conviction and proof.
What gets lost in this dual attempt to politicise the rioters, with the Conservatives slamming them as badly mothered urchins and the Guardian kind-of praising them as ‘political in nature’, is any serious attempt to get to grips with what was new and different and unusual about what occurred in August. The riots did indeed reveal a great deal about modern Britain, particularly about the dearth of social solidarity amongst younger generations of poorer communities and the collapse of police and state authority in inner cities and elsewhere in England; yet neither of these things can seriously be discussed so long as all political factions remain more interested in plonking the rioters on their knees and getting them to mouth What We Want To Hear.

Charity with other peoples money

Free To Die?
By W. Williams
More Liberty Means Less Government: Our Founders Knew This Well (HOOVER INST PRESS PUBLICATION)
Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman, in his New York Times column titled "Free to Die" (9/15/2011), pointed out that back in 1980, his late fellow Nobel laureate Milton Friedman lent his voice to the nation's shift to the political right in his famous 10-part TV series, "Free To Choose." Nowadays, Krugman says, "'free to choose' has become 'free to die.'" He was referring to a GOP presidential debate in which Rep. Ron Paul was asked what should be done if a 30-year-old man who chose not to purchase health insurance found himself in need of six months of intensive care. Paul correctly, but politically incorrectly, replied, "That's what freedom is all about — taking your own risks." CNN moderator Wolf Blitzer pressed his question further, asking whether "society should just let him die." The crowd erupted with cheers and shouts of "Yeah!", which led Krugman to conclude that "American politics is fundamentally about different moral visions." Professor Krugman is absolutely right; our nation is faced with a conflict of moral visions. Let's look at it.
If a person without health insurance finds himself in need of costly medical care, let's investigate just how might that care be provided. There are not too many of us who'd suggest that we get the money from the tooth fairy or Santa Claus. That being the case, if a medically indigent person receives medical treatment, it must be provided by people. There are several possible methods to deliver the services. One way is for people to make voluntary contributions or for medical practitioners to simply treat medically indigent patients at no charge. I find both methods praiseworthy, laudable and, above all, moral.
Another way to provide those services is for Congress to use its power to forcibly use one person to serve the purposes of another. That is, under the pain of punishment, Congress could mandate that medical practitioners treat medically indigent patients at no charge.
I'd personally find such a method of providing medical services offensive and immoral, simply because I find the forcible use of one person to serve the purposes of another, what amounts to slavery, in violation of all that is decent.
I am proud to say that I think most of my fellow Americans would be repulsed at the suggestion of forcibly using medical practitioners to serve the purposes of people in need of hospital care. But I'm afraid that most Americans are not against the principle of the forcible use of one person to serve the purposes of another under the pain of punishment. They just don't have much stomach to witness it. You say, "Williams, explain yourself."
Say that citizen John pays his share of the constitutionally mandated functions of the federal government. He recognizes that nothing in our Constitution gives Congress the authority to forcibly use one person to serve the purposes of another or take the earnings of one American and give them to another American, whether it be for medical services, business bailouts, handouts to farmers or handouts in the form of foreign aid. Suppose John refuses to allow what he earns to be taken and given to another. My guess is that Krugman and, sadly, most other Americans would sanction government punishment, imprisonment or initiation of violence against John. They share Professor Krugman's moral vision that one person has a right to live at the expense of another, but they just don't have the gall to call it that.
I share James Madison's vision, articulated when Congress appropriated $15,000 to assist some French refugees in 1794. Madison stood on the floor of the House to object, saying, "I cannot undertake to lay my finger on that article of the Constitution which granted a right to Congress of expending, on objects of benevolence, the money of their constituents," adding later that "charity is no part of the legislative duty of the government." This vision of morality, I'm afraid, is repulsive to most Americans.

Humans, the ultimate resource

The "Shale Gale" Goes Global with Discoveries in Argentina and China, "Peak Oil" Losing Relevance
1. Peak Oil Debate Losing Relevance Due to New Upstream Technology -- "The debate over whether the world's reserves of hydrocarbons have now peaked and are in decline has lost relevance over recent years as new technology allows oil companies to find and exploit new hydrocarbon sources, the CEO of Repsol Antonio Brufau said today.
Brufau said progress made in exploring and developing ultra-deepwater areas, unconventional oil and gas sources and the move into remote areas such as the Arctic, have been key to growing global reserves of oil and gas. "The speed at which technology changes and its consequences have taken us largely by surprise. The peak oil debate has lost a great deal of its relevance in the past three years," Brufau told the World Petroleum Congress in Doha. 
Repsol continued to more than replace its proven oil and gas reserves outside Argentina this year and will accelerate output from 2015 onwards as it converts contingent resources into proven reserves. Brufau pointed to developments in the U.S. shale gas industry and highlighted Repsol's own plans to develop a huge shale oil and gas area in Argentina. The Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas discovery in Argentina covers nearly 1 billion equivalent barrels of recoverable shale oil."
2.  Shell Strikes Shale Gas in China -- "Royal Dutch Shell has found shale gas in China, a development that could cap imports in a market natural gas producers are hoping will drive demand.  An official with Shell's partner, PetroChina, a unit of the country's top energy group, state-owned CNPC, said drilling results from two wells Shell drilled had been positive.
"Shell has two vertical wells and they got very good primary production," Professor Yuzhang Liu, Vice president of Petrochina's Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development (RIPED), said in an interview at the sidelines of the World Petroleum Congress in Doha. "It's good news for shale gas," said Liu. China currently has no commercial shale gas production."

The eternal crisis of U.S. foreign policy


Egypt and the Idealist-Realist Debate in U.S. Foreign Policy
By George Friedman
The first round of Egyptian parliamentary elections has taken place, and the winners were two Islamist parties. The Islamists themselves are split between more extreme and more moderate factions, but it is clear that the secularists who dominated the demonstrations and who were the focus of the Arab Spring narrativemade a poor showing. Of the three broad power blocs in Egypt — the military, the Islamists and the secular democrats — the last proved the weakest.
It is far from clear what will happen in Egypt now. The military remains unified and powerful, and it is unclear how much actual power it is prepared to cede or whether it will be forced to cede it. What is clear is that the faction championed by Western governments and the media will now have to accept the Islamist agenda, back the military or fade into irrelevance.
One of the points I made during the height of the Arab Spring was that the West should be careful of what it wishes for — it might get it. Democracy does not always bring secular democrats to power. To be more precise, democracy might yield a popular government, but the assumption that that government will support a liberal democratic constitution that conceives of human rights in the European or American sense is by no means certain. Unrest does not always lead to a revolution, a revolution does not always lead to a democracy, and a democracy does not always lead to a European- or American-style constitution.
In Egypt today, just as it is unclear whether the Egyptian military will cede power in any practical sense, it is also unclear whether the Islamists can form a coherent government or how extreme such a government might be. And as we analyze the possibilities, it is important to note that this analysis really isn’t about Egypt. Rather, Egypt serves as a specimen to examine — a case study of an inherent contradiction in Western ideology and, ultimately, of an attempt to create a coherent foreign policy.
Core Beliefs
Western countries, following the principles of the French Revolution, have two core beliefs. The first is the concept of national self-determination, the idea that all nations (and what the term “nation” means is complex in itself) have the right to determine for themselves the type of government they wish. The second is the idea of human rights, which are defined in several documents but are all built around the basic values of individual rights, particularly the right not only to participate in politics but also to be free in your private life from government intrusion.
The first principle leads to the idea of the democratic foundations of the state. The second leads to the idea that the state must be limited in its power in certain ways and the individual must be free to pursue his own life in his own way within a framework of law limited by the principles of liberal democracy. The core assumption within this is that a democratic polity will yield a liberal constitution. This assumes that the majority of the citizens, left to their own devices, will favor the Enlightenment’s definition of human rights. This assumption is simple, but its application is tremendously complex. In the end, the premise of the Western project is that national self-determination, expressed through free elections, will create and sustain constitutional democracies.
It is interesting to note that human rights activists and neoconservatives, who on the surface are ideologically opposed, actually share this core belief. Both believe that democracy and human rights flow from the same source and that creating democratic regimes will create human rights. The neoconservatives believe outside military intervention might be an efficient agent for this. Human rights groups oppose this, preferring to organize and underwrite democratic movements and use measures such as sanctions and courts to compel oppressive regimes to cede power. But they share common ground on this point as well. Both groups believe that outside intervention is needed to facilitate the emergence of an oppressed public naturally inclined toward democracy and human rights.
This, then, yields a theory of foreign policy in which the underlying strategic principle must not only support existing constitutional democracies but also bring power to bear to weaken oppressive regimes and free the people to choose to build the kind of regimes that reflect the values of the European Enlightenment.
Complex Questions and Choices
The case of Egypt raises an interesting and obvious question regardless of how it all turns out. What if there are democratic elections and the people choose a regime that violates the principles of Western human rights? What happens if, after tremendous Western effort to force democratic elections, the electorate chooses to reject Western values and pursue a very different direction — for example, one that regards Western values as morally reprehensible and aims to make war against them? One obvious example of this is Adolph Hitler, whose ascent to power was fully in keeping with the processes of the Weimar Republic — a democratic regime — and whose clearly stated intention was to supersede that regime with one that was popular (there is little doubt that the Nazi regime had vast public support), opposed to constitutionalism in the democratic sense and hostile to constitutional democracy in other countries.

Tuesday, December 6, 2011

The big sleep

Defending the Austrian Explanation of the Great Depression 
by Robert P. Murphy
America's Great DepressionScott Sumner is a Chicago-trained economist who has gained notoriety in recent months for his vigorous advocacy of "NGDP targeting" by the Federal Reserve and other central banks. I have criticized Sumner's views before, and he and I have agreed to a formal online debate to be held early next year.
In the present article, I want to respond to a recent post — titled "The myth at the heart of internet Austrianism" — in which Sumner criticized the Austrian explanation of the Great Depression. I will pick apart Sumner's post almost line by line, so I encourage readers to first follow the link and read it in its entirety before turning to my reply.
Sumner opens up his article, "This post is not about Austrian economics, a field I know relatively little about." Thus far, he and I are in perfect agreement.
Sumner then writes,
[This article] is a response to the claim that the 1929 crash was caused by a preceding inflationary bubble. I will show that the 1920s were not inflationary, and hence that there was no bubble that could have caused an economic slump which began in late 1929.
In order to prove that there was no inflationary bubble in the 1920s, Sumner goes through a list of possible definitions of "inflation" and (in his mind) shows that there was no such expansion under any of the definitions.
1. Inflation as price change: Let's start with the obvious, the 1920s was a decade of deflation; prices fell. Indeed the 1927–29 expansion was the only deflationary expansion of the entire 20th century. That's right, believe it or not the price level actually declined during the boom at the end of the 1920s.
This is correct, if by "price" we mean the consumer price index (CPI). A basket of typical household goods did indeed become cheaper from 1927 through 1929. In fact, this was one of my arguments in my own book about the Depression, to show why the modern hysteria over "deflation" is nonsense.
Politically Incorrect Guide to the Great Depression and the New DealThe typical economist or financial pundit today will warn that if prices ever began actually falling, then it would set in motion a vicious downward spiral as consumers postponed spending, waiting for further price falls. Well, this deflationary black hole obviously wasn't occurring in the heyday of the Roaring Twenties, showing that falling prices per se don't wreck an economy.
Ironically, Mises and Hayek themselves pointed to the relatively stable (i.e., noninflationary) consumer prices of the late 1920s to show why their theory (i.e., the Austrian explanation) was better than Irving Fisher's approach. Fisher famously thought the US Fed had been doing a smashing job during the late 1920s, because after all it had kept the purchasing power of the dollar relatively stable.
From the Austrian perspective, this apparent stability was an illusion, and was masking the actual distortions building in the economy. (Had the Fed not inflated the money supply, increases in productivity would have yielded much sharper drops in consumer prices during the second half of the decade.)
Having disposed of the first case — where "inflation" refers to rising consumer prices — Sumner then turns to the a different definition for the term, namely a rising stock of money:
2. Inflation as money creation: At this point commenters start claiming that inflation doesn't mean rising prices, it means a rising money supply. I think that is absurd, as that would mean we lack a term for rising prices. But let's assume it's true. The next question is; which money? If inflation means more money, then don't you have to say "base inflation," or "M2 inflation?" After all, these quantities often go in dramatically different directions. Since the internet Austrians seem to blame the Fed, let's assume they are talking about the sort of money created by the Fed, the monetary base. In January 1920 the base was $6.909 billion, and in December 1929 it was $6.978 billion. Thus it was basically flat, and this was during a period where the US population and GDP rose dramatically.
Now this is extremely misleading. In fairness, Sumner is tackling the claim of whether there was an inflationary boom in "the 1920s," and so he understandably looked at the start and end dates for the decade. Yet look at the actual chart of the monetary base during the period:
Figure 1
By picking January 1920 as his start date, Sumner was in the midst of the huge inflationary boom during World War I (when the Fed was partially monetizing the massive debt issued by the federal government). To curb the rampant consumer price inflation (exceeding 20 percent on a year-over-year basis), the Fed jacked up rates and crashed the monetary base, ushering in thedepression of 1920–1921.

A postmortem of the British riots


Barbarians on the Thames
London burning
By Theodore Dalrymple
Complex human events have no single or final explanation. The last word on the outbreak of looting and rioting that convulsed large parts of England, including London, in August will therefore never be heard. But some of the first words were foolish, or at least shallow, reflecting the typical materialistic assumptions of the intelligentsia.
An August feature story on the riots in Time offered a particularly striking example. The author suggested that to understand the riots, we should start with “something called the Gini co-efficient, a figure used by economists to indicate how equally (or unequally) income is distributed across a population.” In this traditional measure, the article notes, Britain fares worse than almost every other country in the West.
This little passage is interesting for at least two reasons. First is the unthinking assumption that more equality is better; complete equality would presumably be best. Second is that the author apparently did not think carefully about the table of Gini coefficients printed on the very same page and what it implied about his claim. Portugal headed the list as the most unequal of the countries selected, with a 0.36 coefficient. Next followed the U.K. and Italy, both with a 0.34 coefficient. Toward the bottom of the list, one found France, with a 0.29 coefficient, the same as the Netherlands. Now, it is true that journalists are not historians and that, for professional reasons, their time horizons are often limited to the period between the last edition of their publication and the next. Even so, one might have expected a Time reporter to remember that in 2005—not exactly a historical epoch ago—similar riots swept France, even though its Gini coefficient was already lower than Britain’s. (Having segregated its welfare dependents geographically, though, France saw none of its town or city centers affected by the disorder.)
As it happened, when I read the Time story, I had an old notebook with me. In it, among miscellaneous scribblings, was the following list, referring to the riots in France and made contemporaneously:
Cities affected 300
Detained 2,921
Imprisoned 590
Burned cars 9,071
Injured 126
Dead 1
Police involved 11,200
Average number of cars burned per day before riots 98
And all this with a Gini coefficient of only 0.29! How, then, could it have happened? It might also be worth mentioning that the Netherlands, with its relatively virtuous Gini coefficient, is one of the most crime-ridden countries in Western Europe, as is Sweden, with an even lower Gini coefficient.
At least Time does not go in for the theory that what caused the riots was the coalition government’s reduction in spending, which my Polish publisher tells me is the almost universally accepted view in the Polish press. This Ping-Pong theory of youthful misdemeanor, as one might call it, suggests that if only the state provided enough services for potential rioters—including such amenities as leisure centers with Ping-Pong tables and other diversions—they would behave better. (In the U.S., the theory would promote midnight basketball.) Apart from the empirical unlikelihood of the Ping-Pong tables’ exerting the hoped-for prophylactic effect, the theory suggests that it is government’s duty not merely to keep the peace but to keep the population happy and amused. It is hardly surprising, then, that when people claim that service reductions provoked the riots, they are unable to see that if this were so, the problem would be not the removal of services, but dependence on them in the first place. In any case, as Time pointed out, the effects of the proposed—and economically inevitable—spending reductions have yet to be felt (and few of the reductions have been implemented to date).
But Time also proposed, perhaps without fully realizing it, a more plausible explanation of the riots: that “some of the disaffection with Cameron and his government has more to do with who they are than what they’ve done.” And what they are is upper-class. This theory implies that the rioters’ “disaffection” was more self-consciously analytical than was probably the case; but it does capture a characteristic of the rioters and, indeed, of many British intellectuals: resentment.
Resentment is a powerful, long-lasting emotion that usually is self-serving and dishonest (I have never heard a criminal complain that his defense lawyer is upper-class, as he often is), as well as useless. Resentment is undoubtedly part of everyone’s psychology, at least potentially, and few of us have never heeded its siren song. A population’s general level of resentment, however, is not a natural phenomenon that one can analyze in purely mechanical terms, as if it increased geometrically with the Gini coefficient. Britain itself has been far more unequal in the past without widespread riots’ breaking out, so it is clear that we cannot understand people’s behavior without referring to the meanings that they attach to things.
John Maynard Keynes famously observed that “practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influences, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist.” But why should this servitude apply only to the kind of men whom Keynes regarded as practical—businessmen, for instance? After all, for every 1,000 people who intone that the only purpose for which power can be rightfully exercised over any member of a civilized community against his will is to prevent harm to others, only one has actually read John Stuart Mill (they never seem to quote Mill’s contention that a father who abandons his children may rightfully be put to forced labor). And when Keynes goes on to say that madmen in authority are distilling their frenzy from some earlier academic scribbler, he does not explain why this should apply only to madmen in authority. Why not to madmen who loot and commit arson?
There is reason to think that it should so apply. One rioter told a journalist that his compatriots were fed up with being broke all the time and that he knew people who had absolutely nothing. It is worth pondering what lies behind these words. It is obvious that the rioter considered being broke not merely unpleasant, as we all would, but unjust and anomalous, for it was these qualities that justified the rioting in his mind and led him to suggest that the riots were restitution. Leave aside the Micawberish point that one can be broke on any income whatever if one’s desires fail to align with one’s financial possibilities; it is again obvious that the rioter believed that he had a right not to be broke and that this right was being violated. When he said that he knew people with “nothing,” he did not mean that he knew homeless, starving people left on the street without clothes to wear or shoes on their feet; none of the rioters was like this, and many looked only too fit for law-abiding citizens’ comfort. Nor did he mean people without hot and cold running water, electricity, a television, a cell phone, health care, and access to schooling. People had a right to such things, and yet they could have them all and still have “nothing,” in his meaning of the word. Somehow, people had a right to something beyond this irreducible “nothing” because this “nothing” was a justification for rioting. So people have a right to more than they have a right to; in other words, they have a right to everything.
Tangible benefits, on this view, come not as the result of work, effort, and self-discipline: they come as of right. This inflated doctrine of rights has turned into a cargo cult as primitive as that in New Guinea, where the natives thought, after a laden airplane crashed in the jungle, that consumer goods dropped from the sky. Apparently, all that is necessary for people like the rioters to live at a higher standard of living, equal to that of others, is for the government to decree it as their right—a right already inscribed in their hearts and minds.
This doctrine originated not with the rioters but with politicians, social philosophers, and journalists. You need only read Henry Mayhew’s nineteenth-century account of the laboring poor in London to realize that the notion of having rights to tangible benefits was once unknown to the population, even during severe hardship. But the politicians, social philosophers, and journalists transformed things evidently desirable in themselves—decent housing, for example—into rights that nothing, including the behavior of the rights holders, could abrogate. It clearly never occurred to the well-meaning discoverers of these “rights” that their propagation might influence the human personality, at least of that part of the population destined to become increasingly dependent on exercising them; and it required only an admixture of egalitarianism to complete the dialectic of ingratitude and resentment.
What about unemployment as a cause of the riots? If there are no jobs, there is no opportunity for self-advancement. And as Time points out, unemployment for Britons between 16 and 24 years old has increased from 14 percent to 20 percent over the last three years and is much higher in the areas where most of the rioting took place.
Here, too, the explanation is superficial. The current British unemployment rate, to start with, is not especially high by European standards, though perhaps it is too early to say that similar riots could not happen elsewhere in Europe. More to the point, in the boom days before the financial crash, Britain already had high levels of unemployment among the unskilled young, even as the country imported large numbers of unskilled immigrants to work. For every 20 unskilled jobs created in the run-up to the crash, 19 immigrants found work in Britain, while millions of natives remained in state-subsidized idleness.
Three reasons explain this seeming paradox. In the first place, foreigners, initially without British welfare entitlements, found the wages for the jobs on offer sufficiently enticing to accept them. For natives on welfare, however, the financial difference between working and not working—especially when they could supplement their welfare benefits with a little trafficking or casual work in the black market—was insufficient to get them into the workforce. A locution that welfare recipients frequently use is revealing: “I get paid on Friday,” they say, referring to getting their welfare funds. Their work, apparently, is existence.
Second, many of the young foreigners possessed qualities superior to those of their British counterparts, making them more attractive to employers. Few are the jobs, especially in the service economy, in which such characteristics as punctuality, reliability, politeness, and helpfulness are not important; but these qualities were not much in evidence among the young British population. While in France, one can run a good hotel with young French employees, it would be impossible in Britain with young British employees; in Britain, hotels and many other services are good in proportion to their employment of foreigners. And while educational standards may have fallen elsewhere, it is rare that young migrants to Britain are as uneducated as young Britons. The foreigners, unlike the Britons, can do simple calculations, and they often speak an English that, if not more fluent, is more refined than that of the young Britons.
Finally, the existence of subsidized public housing, or “social housing,” as we term it in the U.K.—it would be more accurate to call it “antisocial housing”—discourages recipients from moving to find work. Because the benefit is not transferable from one location to another, moving would mean that the tenant would have to pay rent at an unsubsidized rate. At the age when young people should be most geographically flexible, many become attached to their lodgings by iron hoops of subsidy. That is why public housing in Britain so often resembles a prison without walls and without warders, and why the riots had some of the qualities of a prison riot.
The rioters and the social class to which they mainly belong thus have genuine reason to feel aggrieved, but that reason is not one that they often cite. In the name of equality and redistributionism, the state has provided them with an expensive education that is nearly useless, thanks to the implementation of pedagogical theories from whose practical effects the better-off and better-educated parents are, to some extent, able to protect their children; entrapped them in de facto prisons; and driven up the cost of their labor so far by means of welfare subsidy that it is worth no one’s while to employ it. At the same time, their minds have been filled with notions of entitlement that can only breed resentment.
The state has failed these Britons in one other respect, perhaps the most significant in helping to explain the riots: it has not repressed their propensity to crime. It has given criminally inclined Britons the (correct) impression of impunity. Consider that the British police catch the culprit of just one robbery in 12 and that just one in eight convictedrobbers goes to prison in the U.K. Since the number of robberies is much greater than the number of robbers—each robber tends to commit many such crimes—failure to imprison robbers, and to do so for a long time, is in effect to grant the state’s imprimatur to robbery.
When one bears in mind that leniency is shown toward criminals who have committed other serious offenses as well, it is no surprise that the young and criminally inclined should believe in their own impunity. They may not be able to do arithmetic, but they can certainly recognize long odds when they see them. They know, too, that they have respectable society on the run when successive lord chief justices have complained that too many Britons are sent to prison and that such sentences should not be administered to first-time burglars (meaning, of course, the first time that they get caught, not the first time that they burgle, a distinction that seems to have escaped their lordships). It would not be too much to say that recent lord chief justices of England are a major cause of the riots.
Crime, in short, has been normalized as a way of life. For further evidence of that proposition, recall that the pretext for the August orgy of looting and arson was the shooting of one Mark Duggan by the police, who thought that he had a gun and was going to shoot them. What Duggan’s friends and relatives said about him was highly revealing. Duggan’s girlfriend observed that if Duggan had had a gun and had seen the police, he would have run away. This is not exactly a paean to his peaceful and law-abiding way of life; she did not claim that it was unimaginable for him to have been carrying a gun. And if she knew that he might have been carrying a gun, she knew a lot more about him and his way of life than she was revealing. A sister said, yes, Mark was “involved in things,” but he was not violent. She delicately refrained from saying what those “things” were, but her way of putting it suggested that she was using a code that almost anybody of her milieu would be able to crack. A friend noted that she did not believe the original press reports, subsequently proved false, that Duggan had shot first at the police because “Mark is not so stupid to shoot at the police.” The word “stupid” implies only a prudential and not an ethical reason for Duggan’s behavior; presumably, there were others at whom it would not be stupid to shoot.
This impression could only be strengthened by a widely published photograph of Duggan in which he held one hand up as a gun, clearly in the pose of a gangster. It is possible that the gesture was only bravado; but at the very least, it suggests an admiration for gangsters not unconnected with the antinomial tendencies of most popular culture.
It is true that the British police have come to resemble not the force of uniformed citizens of which Sir Robert Peel (the founder of the modern police) dreamed, but a paramilitary occupier, feared mainly by the innocent and law-abiding. The police have become simultaneously bullying and ineffectual, the worst of all combinations, barking rudely at motorists who stop where they shouldn’t but disregarding manifestations of serious criminality entirely. The reasons for the degeneration of British policing are (again) complex, but one of them is the extreme leniency of the courts. For a long time, the police had little incentive to pursue criminals short of murderers, for the courts will impose a trivial punishment on them.
The riots might herald a positive change, at least in the official stance toward crime. In an implicit, maybe not even fully conscious, criticism of the last half-century’s criminal-justice policy, the magistrates have imposed much stiffer sentences on the rioters than anyone expected. A judge sent one woman to prison for four years (of which she will serve two and a half) for using Twitter and Facebook to incite rioting, for instance.
The liberal press viewed this sentence and others handed out after the riots as “disproportionate,” which, in a sense, they were. The Guardiannoted that two-thirds of those brought before the magistrates and accused of rioting were remanded into custody and that only 34 percent received bail; the “normal” figure was 10 percent in custody and 90 percent granted bail. Likewise, 45 percent of those found guilty of rioting got prison sentences; “normally,” only 12 percent of those found guilty of assault, robbery, burglary, or brawling in public were imprisoned. Few in the media seemed to recognize that if there was disproportion here, it was because the system was too lenient before, not too severe now.
It is therefore just possible that the rioters will, in the long run, have done a service to the country by awaking it to its past follies. But no one ever made much of a mistake by overestimating the pusillanimity of the British political class.

War on Alcohol Ended 78 Years Ago


War on Drugs Kills 61 Per Day in Mexico
Good News: Today marks the 78th anniversary of the repeal of America's "War on Alcohol" on December 5, 1933, after nearly 13 years of Prohibition.  
Bad News: Largely as a result of America's "War on Drugs," more than 22,000 people will die this year from drug-related violence in Mexico, bringing the total number of narco-related killings to almost 55,000 in the six years since 2006 (see chart above).  At the current rate of 61 drug deaths per day, the total number of Mexican casualties from the "War on Drugs" will reach 58,000 sometime around March 1, which will then match the the number of U.S. casualties in the Vietnam War (58,272). 

Monday, December 5, 2011

National Delusions

 ... and the Madness of Crowds
by Yuri Maltzev



The low-octane Democrats

The GOP Is Useless

by Paul Gottfried

Last spring GOP columnists were already urging their fellow party-members to nominate a centrist for the presidential race. Kim Strassel (April 5, 2011) and Peggy Noonan (April 29, 2011) in Wall Street Journal and Michael Barone and Jonah Goldberg in their syndicated columns all warned against reaching too far right for a presidential candidate. Noonan identified this practice with a "mood of antic cultural pique" and a tendency "to annoy the mainstream media" that came out of the Tea Party insurgency last year. She pointed to McCain, Dole, the two Bush presidents, and Romney as suitable candidates for a party that needs "the center where most of the voters are." On May 18 Goldberg announced that "already the conversation on the right is moving toward the all-important question of electability – which candidate can peel off the handful of independents needed to win an election that will be a referendum on Obama and his record." He knows his fellow "conservative voters" "barring a truly fringe nominee" can be counted on to "vote against Obama, no matter what."

Goldberg, Noonan and other Republican journalists were and are shoving their party toward the center even before the primaries get underway. Fortunately for them, the targets of their advice may already be where they want. Republican voters have usually favored presidential candidates who hug the "center." Unlike the Democrats, who in 2008 happily reached leftward to nominate and win with "the candidate of hope," Republicans try hard to avoid controversy.

They are happy with lackluster moderates like Jerry Ford, Robert Dole, and George H.W. Bush and perhaps they will soon be nominating that ultimate waffler Mitt Romney, who as governor of Massachusetts moved from the social and economic left to the center right, when he decided to seek the presidency in 2007. Once Romney sews up his party’s nomination, he’ll be expected to move a bit to the left, in order to pick up independents and perhaps a few stray black, Jewish and Hispanic voters from the Democrats. Stephen Baldwin, who is gathering information for a book The Manufactured Candidate, has argued that Romney holds no "coherent worldview" except for shameless flipping on issues to advance his career. Black Republican columnist Deroy Murdock complained as early as February 2007 that Romney is so "fine a thespian" that" no one knows where the performer ends and the character begins."

This may in fact be an exaggeration. In foreign policy Romney is a paradigmatic neoconservative who in his recent Iowa debate stated that "democracy is not defined by a vote. There has to be the underpinnings of education, health care…." According to the former governor’s website, his foreign policy will not only expand NATO and build closer alliances with Israel and Russia’s neighbors (thereby ringing Russia with enemies), but also "promote and defend democracy throughout the world." Here we have the makings of another George W. Bush in Barbie Doll form. Note a major complaint against Obama from Republican strategists Dick Morris and Karl Rove is that he won’t play by their rules. Obama won from the left and continues to rule from there. This president won’t be a "centrist," that is to say, a Republican president.

All of this is even truer of Romney’s latest rival Newt, who true to his centrist credit was instrumental in giving us the Martin Luther King festival and getting Confederate symbols removed from public places in Georgia. Gingrich in his centrist inclinations also pushed for sanctions against apartheid South Africa and has been even more strident than W in calling for a liberal internationalist foreign policy, built around cooperation with the Israeli government. With due respect for Israel and its oppressive security problems, does Gingrich really have to begin every discussion of the Middle East with the phrase "our fellow democracy Israel"?

Even a Republican leader now widely identified as a world-historical president, Ronald Reagan, played by the Morris-Rove rules. On the positive side, Reagan avoided tax increases and reduced marginal tax rates; and he helped topple the "evil empire" by placing military and financial pressures on the Soviets. But he failed, or perhaps didn’t even try, to abolish major departments of government; and while Reagan didn’t support quotas and set-asides, his attorney general’s office prosecuted more cases of discrimination in the private sector than any other administration had done until then. In 1987 Reagan supported an amnesty bill for illegals that opened the door to many of the problems that Congress is now (more or less) addressing. Undoubtedly Reagan nominated (or tried to nominate in the case of Robert Bork) far more conservative federal judges than his Democratic successor. But a survey of his record also shows that he brought others on board.

These were the Republican hangers-on who went to Washington supposedly to rid us of bureaucracy but who stayed on to become big-government conservatives. The Reagan-appointees would also include the neoconservatives, who during the Reagan years acquired a powerful foothold in the foreign policy establishment as well as in the department of education, national endowment for democracy, and national endowment for the humanities. The current attempts to depict Reagan as a "conservative" version of Wilson or FDR border on the ridiculous. At home Reagan was a transactional not transformational president, aside from the cataclysmic effects of his incorporation of neoconservative ideologues into his administration.

In 1994 the Reps focused on critical reductions in government and won both houses of Congress, but in 1996 they ran for president a centrist looking leftward, Bob Dole. Two achievements that candidate Dole boasted of having brought about, with encouragement from centrist Republican president George H. W. Bush, were the American with Disabilities Act and a 1991 Civil Rights Act, which reopened the door to racial quotas. Dole’s endorsement of the latter bill was appropriate, seeing that another centrist Republican Richard Nixon had introduced racial set-asides with his Philadelphia Plan in 1969. This may be a rule in American politics: Each time a Republican presidential candidate goes begging for minority votes, he loses a higher percentage of them than the centrist Republican presidential candidate who preceded him.

But why do Republicans expect their standard-bearers to display this center-mindedness? The answer most often given stresses strategic necessity. Although Republicans (allegedly, since there is no evidence of this) would like to run principled "conservatives" in presidential elections, the votes simply aren’t there. Elections are decided where Dick Morris, Karl Rove and Peggy Noonan indicate they are, somewhere in the center and among independent voters.

But Republicans aren’t likely to win by running low-octane Democrats. The more they imitate the opposition even while attacking it, the more likely it is they will drive the vital center of political debate toward the left. GOP candidates have been pursuing what is generally a no-win strategy for decades, by trying to sound like Democrats while throwing mud at the opposition. Equally silly has been their tendency to blame the other party for doing what Republican administrations have been doing almost as frenetically, engaging in massive deficit spending, monetizing wars and giving away lots of patronage. Listening to Fox-News and Republican politicians, one gets the impression that all runaway federal spending began the day Obama took office. Parties that market such moonshine, while offering little in the way of significant change are not likely to look believable. That may be why even with Obama in trouble, the Republicans have not been gaining in popularity.

There are two compelling reasons that the Republicans keep trotting out faceless moderates (usually turned leftward once the primaries are over). First of all, being Republican is a sociological more than ideological choice. The party is predominantly white Protestant; and according to the Pew survey, 81% of the Republican votes cast in the 2010 election came from churched white Protestants. On a good day a GOP candidate may be able to peel off 40 to 45 percent of the Catholic vote, 15 to 20 percent of the Jewish vote, 30 to 40 percent of the Hispanic vote and about 3 to 5 percent of the black vote. But this doesn’t change the recruiting problem. Only 5% of Hispanics and only 2% of blacks identify themselves as Republicans, and despite their often over-the-top Zionist rhetoric and neoconservative advisors, Republicans rarely pick up as much as 20% of the Jewish vote.

Party strategy has aimed at expanding this base, and the logical next step would be to work for increased Republican support among white Catholics. (Republicans obtained a majority of their votes in 2010). While some effort has gone toward this end by appealing to anti-abortion Catholics, more energy seems to be directed toward roping in black and Hispanic voters. This has taken the forms of waffling on illegal immigration, except in the case of Gingrich who openly supports amnestying illegals, and making public apologies for past expressions of white Protestant prejudice. Republican voters can generally live with these maneuverings. They are mostly people who hope to keep things as they are. They rarely undo (or expect their elected officials to undo) what the Dems have done, and their politicians pride themselves on managing the federal welfare state in a fiscally responsible way. Unlike the protesting minorities in the Democratic Party, Republicans were not inclined to manifest outrage before the Tea Party surfaced. They were delighted with the Bush-status quo before Obama and Obamacare came along, and they are still celebrating our government even in its present disarray as a shining and exportable example of "exceptionalism."

Republicans also want minorities to like them and the city on a hill their ancestors settled. And so they probably expect their leaders to be like George W. Bush, who on a visit to Senegal on July 8, 2003 condemned the transatlantic slave trade as "one of the greatest crimes in history." Needless to say, this terrible crime was not associated in any way with non-Westerners, whether African tribal chiefs or Arab slave-traders. Bush was placing the blame on the West, more specifically on white Americans. In his memoirs Bush noted that his most bitter presidential experience was having the radical black intellectual Cornell West call him a "racist." This kind of remark may be more hurtful for Republicans, whose desperate wooing of the blacks has been unsuccessful, than for Democrats, who can assume overwhelming black support. Moreover, presidential candidate McCain made a point of reproaching Southerners who fly Confederate flags, for upsetting black Americans. McCain could do this without having to worry about offending Southern white sensibilities. White Protestants who fancy Confederate battle flags will likely vote Republican no matter what.

Republicans who think their party has been about cutting back government are grossly mistaken. The GOP has only rarely been a friend of decentralized government or to limited, cautious intervention abroad. In the 1860s the party was for consolidated government and defeating the rebellious South; then Republicans gave us Reconstruction together with cozy deals between industrialists and the state. They were later the party of imperial expansion; and under TR, the Republicans became the promoters of a federal managerial state, even before the Democrats turned in this direction under Wilson. There was never a war until the 1930s that most Republican congressmen didn’t welcome; and the Spanish-American War and the War to End All Wars were more popular among Republicans than they were among Democrats. The liberal interventionist Council on Foreign Relations, created in 1919, boasted such Republican founders as Elihu Root, Herbert Hoover and Henry Cabot Lodge.

If some Republicans later protested the New Deal and were reluctant to get involved in the Second World War, such attitudes have not been the rule. Republicans have usually embraced both big government and foreign adventures and were ahead of the curve on women’s right when Democrats were still arguing for a single-family wage for the male breadwinner. Indeed down to the time of Woodrow Wilson’s presidency, the Democrats were generally perceived as the more conservative party, that is, the one that supported states’ rights and commanded the loyalties of fervently Catholic ethnics and the defeated South. What opposition there was to an interventionist foreign policy came typically from the Democratic side, represented by such heroic figures as William Jennings Bryan.

It is no surprise therefore that the Republicans today are crusading for democracy abroad. Discounting such constitutionally-minded leaders as Calvin Coolidge, the Republican opponents of European intervention before the Second World War and the anti-interventionists who survived briefly into the postwar era, the Republicans have a fairly consistent history of crusading for democracy. Bush II, McCain, Romney, and Gingrich are all in the Republican interventionist mold. Those who talk about the GOP’s going back to its small-government and isolationist past don’t have much to look back to.

A second factor for understanding why the GOP shuns rightwing presidential candidates is its present priorities. While the last Republican president did little to cut government expenses and made only scattered concessions to the Religious Right’s moral positions (mostly in Supreme Court appointments not always freely made), Bush was frenetic about launching wars to bring American-style democracy to other countries. The moral core of his administration could be found in the memorable speeches he made about a global democratic crusade, orations that we owe to David Frum and Michael Gerson. Such tropes reflect the vision of the heavily neoconservative GOP media, although for the advocates first things must come first. They have to attack Obama’s wasteful spending in order to capture the presidency. Then they’ll be able to stop Obama’s timid approach to foreign relations and address the continuing threat of an undemocratic "axis of evil." Can anyone think of a leading Republican presidential candidate, except for Ron Paul, who doesn’t march in lockstep on foreign policy with Charles Krauthammer, Bill Kristol, and the Wall Street Journal editorial page?

In a penetrating commentary for Amcon Online (May 18) "Has the Republican Party Left Reagan?" Jack Hunter quotes CPAC director Christopher N. Malagasi on the conservative "tripod" that Republican presidential candidates are believed to represent. Supposedly presidential candidate John McCain embraced all three legs of this tripod, because he was a fiscally responsible social traditionalist who favored "national defense." This three-pronged conservative world view, according to Malagasi, was putatively the legacy of Ronald Reagan, and it is one that GOP presidents and presidential candidates have continued to uphold. Therefore an isolationist like Ron Paul is not truly "conservative" but a "liberal Democrat" because he rejects the third, and perhaps most vital, of the three legs.

Hunter has no trouble shredding these assertions, first by showing that most Republican presidential candidates, and certainly the last Republican occupant of the White House, have not been conservatives at all, with due respect to misleading media labels. Republicans have allowed the "conservative" brand to be identified with a neoconservative foreign policy – not national defense, which Paul does not oppose. Adopting neoconservative rhetoric and policies and complaining about high federal budgets when the Dems are in power is what currently defines a "conservative" presidential candidate. Those who meet the foreign policy standard often get a pass on other things. Thus we saw Religious Right hero Bill Bennett support the pro-abortion- and gay rights advocate Joe Lieberman for president, because Lieberman was good on Middle Eastern affairs. Republican Evangelist Pat Robertson not only had kind words for Lieberman but in 2008 also backed for president another socially liberal Zionist and war hawk Rudy Giuliani. Obviously not all legs in the tripod are of equal importance, particularly with the neocons supplying the funding for "conservative" enterprises.

This brings up the question about what if any opposition will confront the neocon-Republican establishment as it tries to put one of its friends into the presidency in 2012. One group this establishment will not in any way have to fear is the Old Right. What there was of this opposition when the neocons were getting into the driver’s seat has been either coopted or professionally destroyed. And there is no chance that those who were removed from public view will be achieving belated prominence, seeing that most of its leaders are already senior citizens.

But the libertarians are another story. They are better funded and more of a media presence than the hapless paleos; and their presidential standard-bearer Ron Paul has already recruited multitudes to work in his campaigns and vote for him. Paul is not likely to gain the presidency but he can run as a spoiler against a Dole-like candidate in 2012. This 74-year old congressman can help keep Obama in the White House, if he siphons off enough votes as a third party candidate.

Unlike older-generation conservatives, who appeal to social traditions and inherited hierarchies and unlike the neocons advocating a neo-Wilsonian, Zionist foreign policy, libertarians take a relatively value-free position by opposing America’s centralized public administration. They view an aggressive missionary foreign policy as an extension of a constitutionally questionable government that has seized power at home. They therefore wish to avoid military commitments abroad while reducing the scope of government to a few constitutionally allowable tasks. Usually these tasks are negatively stated, for example, staying out of the affairs of other countries, not monetizing our debts, abolishing the Federal Reserve, and not allowing the federal government to go on infringing on the constitutionally delegated power of the states.

Finally it’s not true that libertarian political figures avoid taking stands on social issues. Ron Paul and Chuck Baldwin are devout Protestants, who strongly oppose abortion. What such libertarians stress is that moral questions should be settled by state legislature, not legislated by federal bureaucrats, and least of all by the Supreme Court. While libertarians of the Right, like Paul, hold no brief for homosexuality and the taking of mind-altering drugs, they also believe that the federal government has exceeded its constitutional powers by interfering in such matters. Further, the state’s attempts to ban drug-use, libertarians argue, has allowed police power to be used against property and other rights without solving the problem it was meant to remove.

Not surprisingly, Paul’s candidacy has picked up support from lifestyle liberals as well as from small-government conservatives. Although neoconservatives launched attacks on Paul during the 2008 campaign, accusing him of being a disguised racist and fanatical anti-Zionist (Paul opposes giving foreign aid to Israel or to any other country) the accusations didn’t stick. Unlike the neocon smears against the Old Right, which worked all too well, these attacks seem to go nowhere. Paul enjoys credibility even on the left, as someone who opposes military adventures and wants to legalize drugs. The libertarian problem is not about to go away for establishment Republicans or for their neoconservative PR-network. Although libertarians in the short run may not be able to keep Republicans from nominating a presidential candidate, they will continue to put pressure on the party, from without as well as from within. And let us remember that they are not entirely dependent on Republican votes. Libertarians can reach out effectively without promising government programs and without abjectly apologizing to Democratic minority-voters.