Tuesday, October 30, 2012

The Struggle Over Egalitarianism Continues

It takes a lot of clout to be a victim
by Murray N. Rothbard, February, 1991
Introduction
In the two decades since this essay was written, the major social trends I analyzed have accelerated, seemingly at an exponential rate. The flight away from socialism and central planning begun in Yugoslavia has stunningly succeeded over the entire "socialist bloc" of Eastern Europe, and there is now at least rhetorical allegiance to the idea of privatization and a free-market economy. More and more, Marxism has become confined to the academics of the United States and Western Europe, comfortably ensconced as parasites upon their capitalist economies. But even among academics, there is almost nothing left of the triumphalist Marxism of the 1930s and 40s, with their boasts of the economic efficiency and superiority of socialist central planning. Instead, even the most dedicated Marxists now pay lip service to the necessity of some sort of "market," however restricted by government.
I. New Areas of Inequality and "Oppression"
But this does not mean that the struggle over egalitarianism is over. Far from it. On the contrary, after the New Left of the late 1960s and early '70s had been discredited by its bizarre turn to violence, it took the advice of its liberal elders and "joined the system." New Leftists launched a successful Gramscian "long march through the institutions," and by becoming lawyers and academics — particularly in the humanities, philosophy, and the "soft" social sciences — they have managed to acquire hegemony over our culture. Seeing themselves defeated and routed on the strictly economic front (in contrast to the Old Left of the 1930s, Marxian economics and the labor theory of value was never the New Left's strong suit), the Left turned to the allegedly moral high ground of egalitarianism.

Y2Kyoto: The Final Solution


And everything old is new again



The flat-earth theory of job creation

We need to move beyond this primitive view

By Robert J. Samuelson
Who creates most jobs? Hint: It’s not the government. Almost everyone seems to grasp that the private sector is the true jobs machine. But here’s a notable exception to the consensus: the editorial page of The New York Times. The other day, its lead editorial was “The Myth of Job Creation: The government does in fact create jobs, important jobs, millions of them.” In 35 years, I can’t recall ever writing a column refuting an editorial. But this one warrants special treatment because the Times’ argument is so simplistic, the subject is so important and the Times is such an influential institution.
Let’s examine the Times’ argument. First, it quotes both Mitt Romney and President Obama as embracing the consensus. Obama says: “This notion that I think government creates jobs, that that somehow is the answer. That’s not what I believe.”
Completely wrong, says the Times. Government does create jobs, including “teachers, police officers, firefighters, soldiers, sailors, astronauts, epidemiologists, antiterrorism agents, park rangers, diplomats. ...” There are 22 million federal, state and local workers, notes the Times.

All Pain, No Gain

Retail Sales in Spain Plunge 10.9%, Largest Drop on Record
by Mike "Mish" Shedlock
In a seriously misguided effort to balance its budget, In early September Spain Passed Largest VAT Hike In History.
I wrote at the time, "Stunning Ineptitude Will Make History Books".
Spain's unemployment rate is over 25% and the youth unemployment rate is near 53% yet the fools in the Spanish government hiked taxes yet again, this time by the largest amount in history.
Spain's handling of this economic implosion is sure to make the history books as a prime example of complete ignorance in how to deal with a fiscal crisis.
History in the Making
That prediction took a single month to pan out. Reuters reports Spain retail sales decimated by VAT hike.
Spanish retail sales fell at their fastest pace on record in September as already battered consumer confidence took another hit from a hike in value added tax, driving many shoppers to trade down to cheaper products.
Sales fell 10.9 percent year on year, Monday's National Statistics Institute data showed, reflecting an economy struggling through its second recession in three years and plagued by chronically high unemployment.

Monday, October 29, 2012

Inequality Is The Child Of Fiat Money

Finance’s share of GDP has gone up one and a half times since we went off gold
By Brian Domitrovic
For a while there, it looked like the 2012 election was going to be a referendum on economic inequality. This would have been weird, in that economic growth and its twin, employment, are the clear issues of choice in these years of torpid economic recovery. Had President Obama succeeded in making the election about inequality, which it appears now he will not, it would have amounted to one of the great examples of changing the subject in recent political history (as I pointed out a few months ago in a talk at the Cato Institute).
But let it be clear that there are serious issues of economic inequality that deserve a hearing in our politics today. We are not likely to have them aired by an opportunistic presidential campaign, the Occupy Wall Street movement, or those academics who have made a career of dilating on the “top 1%.” Rather, we should turn our attention to that be-all and end-all of the contemporary economy—the fiat money system so beloved by the Federal Reserve.
One of the most shocking statistics of recent economic history is the change, since the 1960s, in the share of the economy taken up by the financial sector. That share has at least doubled, from 4% to probably about 10% today. People wonder what happened to manufacturing (and its generally high wages) in this country. One of the answers is alluded to in the subtitle of Judith Stein’s 2010 book, “How America traded factories for finance in the 1970s.”

The Quest for Certainty

The Economics of Assumptions
By John Mauldin
“As far as the laws of mathematics refer to reality, they are not certain; and as far as they are certain, they do not refer to reality.”  – Albert Einstein
“To trace something unknown back to something known is alleviating, soothing, gratifying and gives moreover a feeling of power. Danger, disquiet, anxiety attend the unknown – the first instinct is to eliminate these distressing states. First principle: any explanation is better than none… The cause-creating drive is thus conditioned and excited by the feeling of fear …"   – Friedrich Nietzsche
“Very few beings really seek knowledge in this world. Mortal or immortal, few really ask. On the contrary, they try to wring from the unknown the answers they have already shaped in their own minds – justifications, confirmations, forms of consolation without which they can't go on. To really ask is to open the door to the whirlwind. The answer may annihilate the question and the questioner.”  – Anne Rice, The Vampire Lestat
The last two weeks we have been looking at the problems with models. First we touched on what I called the Economic Singularity. In physics a singularity is where the mathematical models no longer work. For example, models based on the physics of relativity no longer work if one gets too close to a black hole. If we think of too much debt as a black hole of sorts, we may understand why economic models no longer work. Last week, in “The Perils of Fiscal Cliff,” we looked at the use of fiscal multipliers by economists in order to argue for or against governmental economic policies. Do you argue for austerity, or against it? There is a model that will support your case, most likely using the same data that your adversary uses.
These letters have generated a great deal of positive response and conversation. While I very rarely suggest to readers to go back and read previous letters, but reading these may help you appreciate why it is so difficult to understand what is happening in the global economy today.

A police state created by ‘anti-fascists’

In their enthusiasm to clamp down on ‘hate speech’, anti-fascists have become an unofficial arm of the state
by Patrick Hayes 
Given that the key thing about twentieth-century fascism was its extreme authoritarianism, you might reasonably expect those who describe themselves as ‘anti-fascist’ to be anti-authoritarian. You might imagine that these campaigners, more than most, would know the dangers of giving the state too much power and trusting it to determine who may speak and who may not, who is a ‘decent’ person and who is not.
But you would be wrong – certainly if the events in the north-east London district of Walthamstow this weekend were anything to go by. There, anti-fascists campaigning against a protest planned for Saturday by the right-wing, allegedly fascistic English Defence League (EDL) demonstrated that they are uncritically pro-state, and unabashedly pro-authoritarian, trusting the powers-that-be to police public protest and political discourse more broadly.
The modern anti-fascist left has provided plenty of justification for increased state control over political to and fro in modern Britain. It has strengthened the use of public-order laws over political freedom, and it has empowered the state to govern all forms of political speech. That control extends not just to the statements and actions of ‘fascist’ groups, but also to the statements and actions of left-wing groups and anti-fascists, too.

France’s Quiet Bank Rescues Top $78 Billion With Peugeot

"Free Market" Socialism in France 
By Fabio Benedetti-Valentini 
France’s aid to PSA Peugeot Citroen SA (UG)’s troubled finance arm brings the state’s backing for the nation’s banks to more than 60 billion euros ($78 billion).
The government yesterday said it will guarantee 7 billion euros in new bonds by Banque PSA Finance, the consumer-finance unit of Europe’s second-largest carmaker. The aid comes on top of support for Dexia SA (DEXB), the French-Belgian municipal lender, and for home-loans company Credit Immobilier de France.
“These bank rescues on the quiet should be getting more critical market attention,” said Bill Blain, a strategist at Mint Partners Ltd. in London. “We don’t know what’s next, but it certainly demonstrates that some of the specialized financial institutions remain very, very weak.”
The third such French bailout in the past year coincides with President Francois Hollande’s push for a European banking union and a common euro-area bank supervisor to break the link between lenders and governments. It also comes as the French government struggles to keep a pledge to cap its budget deficit at 3 percent of gross domestic product next year.

U.S. risks falling off a global cliff

A fiscal-gap serial offender

By William H. Gross
The popular TV series “Breaking Bad” may be an appropriate analogy for the U.S. “fiscal cliff” and ongoing debt crisis. In the show, a chemistry teacher is lured into producing crystal meth. As the title indicates, his middle-class life turns from a temporary high into something much worse, the conclusion of which viewers will learn next year.
Washington, it seems, has a similar story. Hooked on the temporary high of tax cuts and increased entitlements over the past several decades, the nation’s capital is approaching the end of the line traveled by most addicts: Reform, or suffer the consequences.
At first blush, the comparison to a methhead might seem a bit of a stretch. Despite approaching the edge of the fiscal cliff with a deficit equivalent to 8 percent of gross domestic product, the United States is still considered the “cleanest dirty shirt” in global financial markets. Whenever an authentic crisis (Lehman Brothers in 2008) or a minor aftershock occurs, investors buy U.S. Treasury bonds, the dollar rises and this country’s reserve-currency status is reaffirmed. The United States still seems to be the first destination of global capital in search of safe (although historically low) prospective returns.

Sunday, October 28, 2012

Mugging our descendants

Plundering our descendants’ wealth to finance the demands of today’s entitlement mentality
By George F. Will
The election-eve mood is tinged with sadness stemming from well-founded fear that America’s new government is subverting America’s old character. Barack Obama’s agenda is a menu of temptations intended to change the nation’s social norms by making Americans comfortable with the degradation of democracy. This degradation consists of piling up public debt that binds unconsenting future generations to finance current consumption.
So argues Nicholas Eberstadt, an economist and demographer at American Enterprise Institute, in “A Nation of Takers: America’s Entitlement Epidemic.” This booklet could be Mitt Romney’s closing argument.
Beginning two decades after the death of Franklin Roosevelt, who would find today’s government unrecognizable, government became a geyser of entitlements. In 2010, government at all levels transferred more than $2.2 trillion in money, goods and services to recipients — $7,200 per individual, almost $29,000 per family of four. Before 1960, only in the Depression years of 1931 and 1935 did federal transfer payments exceed other federal expenditures. During most of FDR’s 12 presidential years, income transfers were a third or less of federal spending. But between 1960 and 2010, entitlements exploded from 28 percent to 66 percent of federal spending. By 2010, more than 34 percent of households were receiving means-tested benefits. Republicans were more than merely complicit, says Eberstadt:

The real problem with Iran is history

When History is Lost We Are Truly Blind
By Aaron Hesse
What is missing from the narrative surrounding Iran and its nuclear program is a discussion of history and identity that might help to clarify why the US-Iranian relationship is so dangerous today. 

Why does Iran want or need a nuclear program in the first place? Is it to threaten the US or its allies, to end Western influence in the Middle East, to support terrorist activities, or to project Iranian power and export the revolution? Or is it much deeper than that? 

Iran's history is ancient. Names like Cyrus the Great, Xerxes, and Darius leap from the pages, as immortal figures integral to the formulation of Iranian national identity that link today with the glory and resplendence of its past. 

The E.U., Neofeudalism and the Neocolonial-Financialization Model

An intrinsically unstable private-capital/State arrangement 
By Charles Hugh Smith
Forget "austerity"and political theater--the only way to truly comprehend the Eurozone is to understand the Neocolonial-Financialization Model, as that's the key dynamic of the Eurozone.
In the old model of Colonialism, the colonizing power conquered or co-opted the Power Elites of the region, and proceeded to exploit the new colony's resources and labor to enrich the "center," i.e. the home empire.
In Neocolonialism, the forces of financialization (debt and leverage controlled by State-approved banking cartels) are used to indenture the local Elites and populace to the banking center: the peripheral "colonials" borrow money to buy the finished goods sold by the "core," doubly enriching the center with 1) interest and the transactional "skim" of financializing assets such as real estate, and 2) the profits made selling goods to the debtors.

Rise of the Tiger Nation

"Perils" of Immigration


Asian-Americans are now the country's best-educated, highest-earning and fastest-growing racial group. 
By LEE SIEGEL
Last March, an interviewer archly asked President Barack Obama whether he was aware that he had been "surpassed" by basketball phenomenon Jeremy Lin "as the most famous Harvard graduate." The question was misformulated. If there was any surpassing going on, it was that Mr. Lin had become, briefly, more famous than Mr. Obama as the country's most exemplary figure from a hitherto marginalized minority.
Asian-Americans are now the country's best-educated, highest-earning and fastest-growing racial group. They share with American Jews both the distinction and the occasional burden of immigrant success. WSJ's Stu Woo talks to author Lee Siegel.

German Lawmakers Shift Toward Extending Greek Aid

It is only a matter of time
By MARY M. LANE
Passing a more-generous bailout for Greece through Germany's parliament could prove easier than expected for Chancellor Angela Merkel, after most of her coalition appeared willing on Friday to give Greece more time and financing to repair its economy.
Senior lawmakers in Ms. Merkel's conservative-led coalition signaled that the chancellor would likely face limited resistance in parliament against an expanded aid package for Greece, belying fears that Germany's legislature would balk at a third bailout deal for Athens since 2010.
The shift in the mood in the Bundestag, Germany's lower house of parliament, makes it more likely the euro zone will agree to release urgently needed aid for Greece in November, while easing the onerous timetable of Greece's austerity program.

The EPA’s Planned Destruction of the U.S. Economy

The Killing of US Economy


by Alan Caruba
If there was no other reason to defeat President Obama in November, it would be the planned destruction of what is left of the U.S. economy by the Environmental Protection Agency.
In “A Look Ahead to EPA Regulations for 2012” the minority staff (Republican) of the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works has issued a chilling review of a massive rise in the costs of living for all Americans, massive layoffs in all sectors of the economy, and the destruction of the nation’s energy and manufacturing sectors.
The report provides a nightmarish look at the regulations that EPA plans to initiate, having put them under cover prior to Election Day in order to hide President Obama’s agenda of attacking the energy sector and businesses large and small.
Here’s a list of the regulations:

Drunkenness as therapy and social service

Dead Drunk for Tuppence
by Theodore Dalrymple
Britain is the only country known to me in which drunkenness is an ideology: that is to say in which people believe in an abstract way that, in getting drunk, they are doing good to themselves and performing an almost philanthropic service. The mass public drunkenness that appals foreigners when they come to our shores is actually thought by young drunks to be a form individual therapy and social prophylaxis rolled into one. 

I have spoken to quite a lot of these young drunks both when they are inebriated and when they are sober. Their argument goes as follows:
   Every person has things inside him that need outward expression. If not expressed, these things will turn inward cause a kind of emotional septicaemia. People with emotional septicaemia become miserable, ineffective and anti-social. Unfortunately there are many inhibitions of the things that need outward expression. Drunkenness removes these inhibitions.Therefore drunkenness is healthy to the individual and prevents the baleful social consequences of emotional septicaemia.

Light Entertainment

Child abuse and the British public
By Andrew O’Hagan
On 23 May 1949, Lionel Gamlin, producer of the Light Programme’s Hello Children, wrote to Enid Blyton to ask whether she would be willing to be interviewed about the best holiday she could remember. ‘Dear Mr Gamlin,’ Blyton wrote the next day. ‘Thank you for your nice letter. It all sounds very interesting but I ought to warn you of something you obviously don’t know, but which has been well known in the literary and publishing world for some time – I and my stories are completely banned by the BBC as far as children are concerned.’
From Room 432 at Broadcasting House, Gamlin later received a memo addressed to him by Derek McCulloch, the producer and presenter of Children’s Hour. McCulloch was known to every child growing up between the mid-1930s and 1950 as ‘Uncle Mac’ and was as famous to them as anyone could be. The memo was marked ‘Enid Blyton Stories’ and, in red, ‘strictly confidential and urgent’. ‘I will be grateful,’ McCulloch wrote, ‘if you would first discuss with me should you be considering the inclusion of material by the above author. I am most anxious that no conflicts in policy shall get loose, not only to our embarrassment, but to yours also.’ Gamlin was a company man and he clearly got the point. ‘In spite of the desire voiced by some of the children who wrote,’ Gamlin replied, ‘I have no intention of using any material by the above author, as I think I mentioned to you after I had first approached her without knowing your policy in the matter. Have no fear, there will be No Orchids for Miss B. at any time.’ The BBC brass didn’t like Blyton’s work – ‘there is rather a lot of the Pinky-winky-Doodle-doodle Dum-dum type of name’ – and Gamlin, glad to have a job, didn’t hesitate to overrule what children wanted in order to please Room 432.

Saturday, October 27, 2012

Putin Is the New Global Shah of Oil

A dark Energy Future For Europe
by Marin Katusa

Exxon Mobil is no longer the world's number-one oil producer. As of yesterday, that title belongs to Putin Oil Corp – oh, whoops. I mean the title belongs to Rosneft, Russia's state-controlled oil company.
Rosneft is buying TNK-BP, which is a vertically integrated oil company co-owned by British oil firm BP and a group of Russian billionaires known as AAR. One of the top-ten privately owned oil producers in the world, in 2010 TNK-BP churned out 1.74 million barrels of oil equivalent per day from its assets in Russia and Ukraine and processed almost half that amount through its refineries.
With TNK-BP in its hands, Rosneft will be in charge of more than 4 million barrels of oil production a day. And who is in charge of Rosneft? None other than Vladimir Putin, Russia's resource-full president.
TNK-BP has been an economic dream, producing many billions in dividend payments for its owners – but it has been a relations nightmare. The partners have fought repeatedly. In 2008 Russian authorities arrested two British TNK-BP managers amid a dispute over strategy that forced then-CEO Bob Dudley (who now heads BP) to flee Russia – and that is just one of many partnership scandals.

Argentinians still crying for Argentina

Pesos Go Underground as Dollar Ban Backfires

By Katia Porzecanski 
Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner’s foreign-exchange controls are driving pesos underground.
A quarter of Argentines are keeping their pesos at home, up from 19 percent a year ago, according to a survey conducted in September by theCatholic University of Argentina and TNS Gallup. The increase reflects how people are shifting money out of banks to trade dollars in a cash-dominated black market where the cost of the U.S. currency has surged 35 percent this year, according to Buenos Aires-based research company EconViews.
The migration of cash out of the financial system is stripping banks of funding and undermining Fernandez’s efforts to hold down interest rates and bolster an economic rebound. The 30-day deposit rate has jumped 1.8 percentage points in the past four months to 14.8125 percent. A three-day decline of 0.8 percentage point that pared the increase in the benchmark rate will prove short-lived as annual inflation of 24 percent drives more Argentines to move money into the underground economy, said Eric Ritondale, an economist at Econviews.

French Are Freaking Out After Rumored Plan To Attack Their Sacred Cow

Other People's money have run out already
By Wolf Richter
References to the financial crisis are piling up in France’s economic data. The latest was housing.
The total amount that banks granted for mortgages plummeted by 30.5% so far this year from the same period in 2011—despite the low rates. For all of 2012, an estimated €115 billion in mortgages will be granted, versus €162 billion in 2011.
“We have never before seen a drop of this magnitude at this speed,” said Michel Mouillart, author of the study. What took two years during the crisis of 2008-2009, he said, is now happening in one year.
The government has been flailing about to counter economic trends that started while Nicolas Sarkozy was still president. And one of the most bandied-about catchwords these days is “competitiveness”—entailing among others the cherished and untouchable 35-hour workweek, equally untouchable wages, and sky-high employer-paid payroll taxes and social security charges. An explosive mix.

Another State Down the Drain

Illinois Debt Takes Toll, Study Finds

By MARY WILLIAMS WALSH
For years, Illinois has racked up billions in public debt to plug budget holes, pay overdue bills, and put money into its mismanaged pension funds. And for the people who live there, this has resulted in decrepit commuter trains and buses, thousands of unsound bridges, 200 hazardous dams and one of the most inequitable public school systems in America.
Those are the conclusions of a new examination of Illinois’ finances by the State Budget Crisis Task Force, which was released Wednesday.
The group, led by the former Federal Reserve chairman, Paul A. Volcker, and the former New York lieutenant governor, Richard Ravitch, recommended an overhaul of Illinois’ budgeting practices, to make it harder to kite money from year to year and raid special-purpose funds. It also warned that tax increases may be in store.

Coming Attractions

Hark! The Herald Angels Aren't Singing
 “No matter where you stand, no matter how far or how fast you flee, when it hits the fan, as much as possible will be propelled in your direction, and you will not possess a towel large enough to wipe all of it off.”    -The Wizard
 By Mark J. Grant
You thought it was tough; it is going to get tougher. You thought that Europe would not affect America and that we lived in some sort of bubble over here; think again. You thought that the liquidity provided by the world’s major central banks would carry us across the divide and intact; keep dreaming. We are at the cross roads, at break point, where solvency is no longer overcome by liquidity because the politics is dysfunctional and because after you get to “unlimited” and “uncapped” there is nowhere further to go. We have arrived at that long dreaded moment where decisions will have to be made, will be forced to be made by the economic plights of Greece, Spain and Portugal that can no longer be shunned or twisted perversely under the banner of “More Europe” as Nationalism and self-preservation take root on the Continent and the effects of the austerity measures in Europe slows down and stops the economies in various nations which then impacts the earnings of American companies in a significant manner. Put succinctly; European austerity has arrived in the United States.

Who Is Fethullah Gülen?

Controversial Muslim preacher and “inspirer” of the largest charter school network in America
By Claire Berlinski
With the American economy in shambles, Europe imploding, and the Middle East in chaos, convincing Americans that they should pay attention to a Turkish preacher named Fethullah Gülen is an exceedingly hard sell. Many Americans have never heard of him, and if they have, he sounds like the least of their worries. According to his website, he is an “authoritative mainstream Turkish Muslim scholar, thinker, author, poet, opinion leader and educational activist who supports interfaith and intercultural dialogue, science, democracy and spirituality and opposes violence and turning religion into a political ideology.” The website adds that “by some estimates, several hundred educational organizations such as K–12 schools, universities, and language schools have been established around the world inspired by Fethullah Gülen.” The site notes, too, that Gülen was “the first Muslim scholar to publicly condemn the attacks of 9/11.” It also celebrates his modesty.

A Non-Divine European Comedy

Sovereign Self-Interest Versus European Hegemony
“Markets can remain irrational longer than we can remain solvent… “

By Blain's Morning Porridge
There were moments yesterday when it felt we stood at the edge of the abyss preparing to take a giant leap forwards. The morning’s fears were palatable –the lack of market direction and escalating concerns setting us up for a tumultuous slide. By the afternoon everything rosy again! Despite miserable German confidence numbers the feared sell-off has not developed. Fear is still there tho! Fed keeping long term rates low should not be a surprise. In Europe, we’re watching how the news flow develops.
Spain – more of the same. Will they, wont they take the OMT bailout? Rumours this morning say a limited Euro 60 bln is being discussed for the banks and regions, but who knows. Spain has completed 2012 funding – so what’s the rush or the need asks the Spain DMO? Perhaps Spain signing up for reasons of “prudency” could provide the market with the kind of leg up it needs to rejuvenate the rally?

Credit Crunch in Europe

Eurozone Lending Sinking Fast; Money Supply Contracts
by Mike "Mish" Shedlock
A collapse in demand for credit is underway in Europe. Bank lending is down sharply and the decline has "surprised the experts".
I wasn't surprised in the least, but nonetheless, please consider Lending in the euro zone is declining fast, courtesy of Google translate (slightly modified by Mish) from Die Welt.
In the crisis-hit euro zone, fears rise of a credit crunch. The sharp decline in bank loans to companies surprised even the experts.
The sum of bank loans to companies and households in the euro zone shrank more than expected in September. Bank lending in comparison to the same month last year shrank by 0.8 percent, said the European Central Bank (ECB). Analysts had expected a decline of only 0.6 percent.

Bailout : Too Big to Jail

Neil Barofsky on “Incestuous Orgy” Between Washington and Wall Street 
It was Bill Moyers who used the expression “incestuous orgy” in this interview with former head of SIGTARP Neil Barofsky to describe the relationship between major financial firms and the Federal government. That beats the anodyne “revolving door” all day and I hope becomes part of the lexicon for describing the capture of Washington by Wall Street.
Barofsky describes not only his experience at SIGTARP in fighting with the Paulson and Geithner Treasuries to oversee the bailout program, but also his reasons for thinking a financial crisis is inevitable

Two videos distill the meaning of a campaign, and a presidency.

The Incredible Shrinking President
By Mark Steyn
‘We’re going to have that person arrested and prosecuted that did the video,” said Hillary Clinton. No, not the person who made the video saying that voting for Barack Obama is like losing your virginity to a really cool guy. I’ll get to that in a moment. But Secretary Clinton was talking about the fellow who made the supposedly Islamophobic video that supposedly set off the sacking of the Benghazi consulate. And, indeed, she did “have that person arrested.” By happy coincidence, his bail hearing has been set for three days after the election, by which time he will have served his purpose. These two videos — the Islamophobic one and the Obamosexual one — bookend the remarkable but wholly deserved collapse of the president’s reelection campaign.
You’ll recall that a near-month-long attempt to blame an obscure YouTube video for the murder of four Americans and the destruction of U.S. sovereign territory climaxed in the vice-presidential debate with Joe Biden’s bald assertion that the administration had been going on the best intelligence it had at the time. By then, it had been confirmed that there never had been any protest against the video, and that the Obama line that Benghazi had been a spontaneous movie review that just got a little out of hand was utterly false. The only remaining question was whether the administration had knowingly lied or was merely innocently stupid. The innocent-stupidity line became harder to maintain this week after Fox News obtained State Department e-mails revealing that shortly after 4 p.m. Eastern, less than a half hour after the assault in Benghazi began, the White House situation room knew the exact nature of it.

When North Korea Collapses

Unification or Protectorate ?
By Robert Kaplan & Rodger Baker
As we have pointed out previously, in the principal divided-country scenarios of the second half of the 20th century -- North and South Vietnam, East and West Germany, North and South Yemen -- reunification was thought of for decades as only a remote possibility, before it suddenly occurred in a tumultuous, fast-moving fashion, in a way few of the experts had predicted, making a mockery of so many policy papers written on the subject. The current division of the Korean Peninsula should be seen in this light. Not only is the collapse of the regime in the northern half of the peninsula possible, but if and when it does occur, the process might be quicker than many suspect.
In a century of seamless digital communications that are remaking world politics, the survival of such a hermetic regime as North Korea, built on information control, certainly appears problematic. Behind the weird artificiality of the regime itself lies something quite ancient: The very concept of a leader in his mid- or late-20s, with no experience, made a four-star general and hailed as the "brilliant comrade" harks back to bizarre descriptions of ceremonial politics associated with the deep past. How much longer can such a situation go on?