But Where's The Austerity?
Die-hard
Keynesians bemoan that, with a few exceptions, the world’s economies are
drowning in the quicksand of austerity. They preach we need more government
spending and stimulus, not less. Northern Europe should bail out its
less-fortunate neighbors to the South so they can pay their teachers, public
employees and continue generous transfers to the poor and unemployed. If not,
Europe’s South will remain mired in recession. In America, Keynesians entreat
the skinflint Republicans to loosen the purse strings so we can escape sub par
growth. They advise Japan to spend itself out of permanent stagnation and
welcome recent steps in this direction.
The stimulationists
complain that they have been overwhelmed by the defeatist austerity crowd, lead
by the un-neighborly Germans and the obstructionist Republicans. If only Germany would shift its economy into
high gear while transferring its tax revenues to ailing Southern Europe, and
the rascally Republicans drop the sequester cuts, we would be sailing along to
a healthy worldwide recovery. We don’t need spending restraint. Instead, we
need stimulus, stimulus, and more stimulus to revive economic growth. We’ll
deal with the growing deficits later, the stimulation crowd tells us, but we
must first get our economies growing again.
The Keynesian
stimulus crowd blames austerity for the world’s economic woes without bothering
to examine facts. I advise them first to consult my colleague at the German
Institute for Economic Research (Georg Erber, I See Austerity
Everywhere But in the Statistics), who, unlike
them, has actually taken the time to examine the European
Union’s statistics as compiled by its statistical agency, Eurostat.
The official
Keynesian story is that the PIIGS of Europe (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece
and Spain) have been devastated by cutbacks in public spending. Austerity has
made things worse rather than better – clear proof that Keynesian stimulus is the
answer. Keynesians claim the lack of stimulus (of course paid for by someone
else) has spawned costly recessions which threaten to spread. In other words, watch out Germany and
Scandinavia: If you don’t pony up, you’ll be next.
Erber finds fault
with this Keynesian narrative. The official figures show that PIIGS governments
embarked on massive spending sprees between 2000 and 2008. During this period,
their combined general government expenditures rose from 775 billion Euros to
1.3 trillion – a 75 percent increase. Ireland had the largest percentage
increase (130 percent), and Italy the smallest (40 percent). These spending
binges gave public sector workers generous salaries and benefits, paid for
bridges to nowhere, and financed a gold-plated transfer state. What the state
gave has proven hard to take away as the riots in Southern Europe show.
Then in 2008, the
financial crisis hit. No one wanted to lend to the insolvent PIIGS, and,
according to the Keynesian narrative, the PIIGS were forced into extreme
austerity by their miserly neighbors to the north. Instead of the stimulus they
desperately needed, the PIIGS economies were wrecked by austerity.
Not so according
to the official European statistics. Between the onset of the crisis in 2008
and 2011, PIIGS government spending increased by six percent from an already high
plateau. Eurostat’s projections (which
make the unlikely assumption that the PIIGS will honor the fiscal discipline
promised their creditors) still show the PIIGS spending more in 2014 than at
the end of their spending binge in 2008.