Why Is There a Euro Crisis?
by Philipp Bagus
On Thursday, October 28, 2011, prices of European
stocks soared. Big banks like Société Générale (+22.54%), BNP Paribas
(+19.92%), Commerzbank (+16.49%) or Deutsche Bank (+15.35%) experienced
fantastic one-day gains. What happened?
Today's banks are not free-market institutions. They live in a symbiosis
with governments that they are financing. The banks' survival depends on privileges and
government interventions. Such an intervention explains the unusual stock
gains. On Wednesday night, an EU summit had limited the losses that European
banks will take for financing the irresponsible Greek government to 50 percent.
Moreover, the summit showed that the European political elite is willing to
keep the game going and continue to bail out the government of Greece and other
peripheral countries. Everyone who receives money from the Greek government
benefits from the bailout: Greek public employees, pensioners, unemployed,
subsidized sectors, Greek banks — but also French and German banks.
Europeans politicians want the euro to survive. For it
to do so, they think that they have to rescue irresponsible governments with
public money. Banks are the main creditors of such governments. Thus, bank
stocks soared.
The spending mess goes in a circle. Banks have
financed irresponsible governments such as that of Greece. Now the Greek
government partially defaults. As a consequence, European governments rescue
banks by bailing them out directly or by giving loans to the Greek government.
Banks can then continue to finance governments (the loans to the Greek
government and others). But who, in the end, is really paying for this whole
mess? That is the end of our story. Let us begin with the origin that coincides
with beneficiaries of the last EU summit: the banking system.
The Origin of the Calamity: Credit Expansion
When fractional-reserve banks expand credit,
malinvestments result. Entrepreneurs induced by artificially low interest rates
engage in new investment projects that the lower interest rates suddenly make
look profitable. Many of these investments are not financed by real savings but
just by money created out of thin air by the banking system. The new
investments absorb important resources from other sectors that are not affected
so much by the inflow of the new money. There results a real distortion in the
productive structure of the economy. In the last cycle, malinvestments in the
booming housing markets contrasted with important bottlenecks such as in the
commodity sector.
The Real Distortions Trigger a Financial
Crisis
In 2008, the crisis of the real economy triggered a
banking or financial crisis. Artificially low interest rates had facilitated
excessive debt accumulation to finance bubble activities. When the
malinvestments became apparent, the market value of these investments dropped
sharply. Part of these assets (malinvestments) was property of the banking
system or financed by it.
As malinvestments got liquidated, companies went bust
and people lost their bubble jobs. Individuals started to default on their
mortgage and other credit payments. Bankrupt companies stopped paying their
loans to banks. Asset prices such as stock prices collapsed. As a consequence,
the value of bank assets evaporated, reducing their equity. Bank liquidity was
affected negatively too as borrowers defaulted on their bank loans.
As a consequence of the reduced bank solvency, a
problem originating from the distortions in the real economy, financial
institutions almost stopped lending to each other in the autumn of 2008.
Interbank liquidity dried up. Add to this the fact that fractional-reserve
banks are inherently illiquid, and it is not surprising that a financial
meltdown was only stopped by massive interventions by central banks and
governments worldwide. The real crisis had caused a financial crisis.
Conditions for Economic Recovery
Economic recovery requires that the structure of
production adapt to consumer wishes. Malinvestments must be liquidated to free
up resources for new, more urgently demanded projects. This process requires
several adjustments.
First, relative prices must adjust. For instances,
housing prices had to fall, which made other projects look relatively more
profitable. If relative housing prices do not fall, ever more houses will be
built, adding to existing distortions.
Second, savings must be available to finance
investments in the hitherto neglected sectors, such as the commodity sector.
Additional savings hasten the process as the new processes need savings.
Lastly, factor markets must be flexible to allow the
factors of production to shift from the bubble sectors to the more urgently
demanded projects. Workers must stop building additional houses and instead
engage in more-urgent projects, such as the production of oil.
Bankruptcies are an institution that can speed up the
process of relative price adjustments, transferring savings and factors of
production. They favor a rapid sale of malinvestments, setting free savings and
factors of production. Bankruptcies are thus essential for a fast recovery.
A Fast Liquidation Is Inhibited at High Costs
All three aforementioned adjustments (relative prices
changes, increase in private savings, and factor-market flexibility) were
inhibited. Many bankruptcies that should have happened were not allowed to
occur. Both in the real economy and the financial sector, governments
intervened. They support struggling companies via subsidized loans, programs
such as cash for clunkers, or via public works.
Governments also supported and rescued banks by buying
problematic assets or injecting capital into them. As bankruptcies are not
allowed to happen, the liquidation of malinvestments was slowed down.
Governments also inhibited factor markets from being
flexible and subsidized unemployment by paying unemployment benefits. Bubble
prices were not allowed to adjust quickly but were to some extent propped up by
government interventions. Government sucked up private savings by taxes and
squandered them maintaining an obsolete structure of production. Banks financed
the government spending by buying government bonds. By putting money into the
public sector, banks had fewer funds available to lend to the private sector.
Factors of production were not shifted quickly into
new projects because the old ones were not liquidated. They remained stuck in
what essentially were malinvestments, especially in an overblown financial
sector. Factor mobility was slowed down by unemployment benefits, union
privileges, and other labor market regulations.
Real and Financial Crisis Trigger a Sovereign-Debt Crisis
All these efforts to prevent a fast restructuring
implied an enormous increase in public spending. Government spending had
already increased in the years previous to the crisis thanks to the artificial
boom. The credit-induced boom had caused bubble profits in several sectors,
such as housing or the stock market. Tax revenues had soared and had been
readily spent by governments' introducing new spending programs. These revenues
now just disappeared. Government revenue from income taxes and social security
also dropped.
With government expenditures that prolong the crisis soaring and revenues
plummeting, public debts and deficits skyrocketed.[1] The crisis of the real and financial economy led
to a sovereign-debt crisis. Malinvestment had not been restructured, and losses
had not disappeared, because government intervention inhibited their
liquidation. The ownership of malinvestments and the losses resulting from them
were to a great part socialized.
Sovereign-Debt Crisis Triggers Currency Crisis
The next step in the logic of monetary interventionism
is a currency crisis. The value of fiat currencies is ultimately supported by
their governments and central banks. The balance sheets of central banks deteriorated
considerably during the crisis and with them the banks' capacity to defend the
value of the currencies they issue. During the crisis, central banks
accumulated bad assets: loans to zombie banks, overvalued asset-backed
securities, bonds of troubled governments, etc.
In order to support the banking system during the
crisis and to limit the number of bankruptcies, central banks had to keep
interest rates at historically low levels. They thereby facilitated the
accumulation of government debts. Consequently, the pressure on central banks
to print the governments' way out of their debt crisis is building up. Indeed,
we have already seen quantitative easing I and quantitative easing II enacted
by the Fed. The European Central Bank also started buying government bonds and
accepting collateral of low quality (such as Greek government bonds) as did the
Bank of England.
Central banks are producing more base money and
reducing the quality of their assets.
Governments, in turn, are in bad shape to recapitalize
them. They need further money production to stay afloat. Due to their
overindebtedness, there are several ways out for governments negatively
affecting the value of the currencies they issue.
Governments may default on debts directly by ceasing
to pay their bonds. Alternatively, they can do so indirectly through high
inflation (another form of default). Here we face a possible feedback loop to
the banking crisis. If governments default on their debts, banks holding these
debts are affected negatively. Then another government's bailout may be
necessary to save the banks. This rescue would likely be financed by even more
debts calling for more money production and dilution. All this reduces the
confidence in fiat currencies.
Conclusion
After crises of the real economy, the financial sector
and government debts, the logic of interventionism leads us to a currency
crisis. The currency crisis is just unfolding before our eyes. The crisis has
been partially concealed as the euro and the dollar are depreciating almost at
the same pace. The currency crisis manifests itself, however, in the exchange
rate to the Swiss franc or the price of gold.
When currencies collapse, price inflation usually
picks up. More units of the currency must be offered to acquire goods and services.
What had started with credit expansion and distortions in the real economy,
then, may well end up with high price inflation rates and currency reform.
It is now easy to answer our initial question: Who is
paying for the mutual bailouts of governments and banks in the eurozone? All holders of euros, via a loss of purchasing
power.
Instead of allowing the market to react to credit
expansion, governments increased their debts and sacrificed the value of the
currencies we are using. The remedy to the distortions caused by credit
expansion would have been the fast liquidation of malinvestments, banks, and
governments. As the innocent users of the currencies are paying for the
bailouts, it is difficult not to be a liquidationist.