
By Christopher Caldwell
‘Europe is
speaking German now,’ said Volker Kauder, parliamentary chairman of German
Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrat party, about a year ago. He was
urging Britain to back Merkel’s plans for saving Europe’s rickety banks and
state budgets. Last week, the Chancellor herself arrived in London to dine with
David Cameron and deliver the message in person.
Cameron is in a
tricky spot. The summit to determine the EU budget for the next seven years
will be held on 22 November. A coalition of opportunistic Labour MPs and dug-in
Tory rebels has just passed a non-binding amendment in parliament urging that
the government accept nothing less than a cut in real EU spending. Cameron has
tried to win himself a bit of wiggle room. ‘If there isn’t a deal that’s good
for Britain,’ he has said, ‘there won’t be a deal.’ But Merkel wants to pin him
down. ‘One can be happy on an island,’ she said at the European parliament in
Brussels before she arrived in London, ‘but in this world they can’t be happy
on their own any more.’
For Tories, a
productive relationship with Europe’s leaders has always seemed to depend on
breaking parliament’s attachment to its ancient sovereignty. If you are being
told to throw away the most precious treasure you have, you are either reading
the gospels or being played for a fool. Merkel, as it happens, is in a similar
fix. She faces her own rebellion in the Bundestag, Germany’s lower house, where
Eurosceptic Christian Democrat renegades, two dozen and growing, have deprived
her of partisan majorities on votes involving the euro bailout. Few of them
object to Europe in principle. It’s just that there have been too many bailout
votes, and Germany’s liabilities now stretch into the hundreds of billions. The
German high court insists that funds can be appropriated to bail out foreigners
only by a vote of the Bundestag. A September poll on the euro in the newspaper Die Welt found two thirds of Germans wish they’d
never joined.
Merkel is thus
caught in a tug-of-war between German voters and various Eurocrats, bureaucrats
and kleptocrats abroad. The voters, just like their British counterparts, want
to make sure she doesn’t send any more of their money abroad than is strictly
necessary. Their idea of how much is strictly necessary is zero. European
officials, on the other hand, are intent on reminding Germany of its debt to
history, which they would prefer to collect in cash. Merkel faces an election
next September or October against the Socialist Peer Steinbrück, who was her
finance minister when Socialists and Christian Democrats governed in a grand
coalition. Steinbrück is a protégé of Helmut Schmidt, and is similarly at ease
talking and thinking about economic concepts. That Steinbrück agrees with
Merkel on most euro matters is both his strength and his weakness. A recent
Emnid poll showed Merkel would thrash him, 51-26 (61-18 in the former East
Germany), if elections were held today, even though the public trusts
Steinbrück more on the economy.