By NATHAN HARDEN
In fifty years, if
not much sooner, half of the roughly 4,500 colleges and universities now
operating in the United States will have ceased to exist. The technology
driving this change is already at work, and nothing can stop it. The future
looks like this: Access to college-level education will be free for everyone;
the residential college campus will become largely obsolete; tens of thousands
of professors will lose their jobs; the bachelor’s degree will become
increasingly irrelevant; and ten years from now Harvard will enroll ten million
students.
We’ve all heard plenty about the “college
bubble” in recent years. Student loan debt is at an all-time high—an average of
more than $23,000 per graduate by some counts—and tuition costs continue to
rise at a rate far outpacing inflation, as they have for decades. Credential
inflation is devaluing the college degree, making graduate degrees, and the
greater debt required to pay for them, increasingly necessary for many people
to maintain the standard of living they experienced growing up in their
parents’ homes. Students are defaulting on their loans at an unprecedented
rate, too, partly a function of an economy short on entry-level professional
positions. Yet, as with all bubbles, there’s a persistent public belief in the
value of something, and that faith in the college degree has kept demand high.
The figures are alarming, the anecdotes
downright depressing. But the real story of the American higher-education
bubble has little to do with individual students and their debts or employment
problems. The most important part of the college bubble story—the one we will
soon be hearing much more about—concerns the impending financial collapse of
numerous private colleges and universities and the likely shrinkage of many
public ones. And when that bubble bursts, it will end a system of higher
education that, for all of its history, has been steeped in a culture of
exclusivity. Then we’ll see the birth of something entirely new as we accept
one central and unavoidable fact: The college classroom is about to go virtual.



















