What if the United States now offers the worst of both worlds: high inequality with low social mobility?
by Niall Ferguson
“The United
States is where great things are possible.” Those are the words of Elon Musk,
whose astonishing career illustrates that the American dream can still come
true.
Musk was
born in South Africa but emigrated to the United States via Canada in the 1990s.
After completing degrees in economics and physics at the University of
Pennsylvania, he moved to Silicon Valley, intent on addressing three of the
most “important problems that would most affect the future of humanity”: the
Internet, clean energy, and space. Having founded PayPal, Tesla Motors, and
SpaceX, he has pulled off an astonishing trifecta. At the age of 42, he is
worth an estimated $2.4 billion. Way to go!
But for
every Musk, how many talented young people are out there who never get those crucial
lucky breaks? Everyone knows that the United States has become more unequal in
recent decades. Indeed, the last presidential election campaign was dominated
by what turned out to be an unequal contest between “the 1 percent” and the “47
percent” whose votes Mitt Romney notoriously wrote off.
But the real
problem may be more insidious than the figures about income and wealth
distribution imply. Even more disturbing is the growing evidence that social
mobility is also declining in America.
The
distinction is an important one. For many years, surveys have revealed a
fundamental difference between Americans and Europeans. Americans have a much
higher toleration for inequality. But that toleration is implicitly conditional
on there being more social mobility in the United States than in Europe.
But what if
that tradeoff no longer exists? What if the United States now offers the worst
of both worlds: high inequality with low social mobility? And what if this is
one of the hidden structural obstacles to economic recovery? Indeed, what if
current monetary policy is making the problem of social immobility even worse?
This ought
to be grist for the mill for American conservatives. But Republicans have
flunked the challenge. By failing to distinguish between inequality and
mobility, they have allowed Democrats, in effect, to equate the two, leaving
the GOP looking like the party of the 1 percent—hardly an election-winning
strategy.
To their
cost, American conservatives have forgotten Winston Churchill’s famous distinction
between left and right—that the left favors the line, the right the ladder.
Democrats do indeed support policies that encourage voters to line up for
entitlements—policies that often have the unintended consequence of trapping
recipients in dependency on the state. Republicans need to start reminding
people that conservatism is about more than just cutting benefits. It’s
supposed to be about getting people to climb the ladder of opportunity.
Inequality
and social immobility are, of course, related. But they’re not the same, as
liberals often claim.
Let’s start
with inequality. It’s now well known that in the mid-2000s the share of income
going to the top 1 percent of the population returned to where it was in the
days of F. Scott Fitzgerald’s Great Gatsby. The average income of the 1 percent
was roughly 30 times higher than the average income of everyone else. The
financial crisis reduced the gap, but only slightly—and temporarily. That is
because the primary (and avowed) aim of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy
since 2008 has been to push up the price of assets. Guess what? The rich own
most of these. To be precise, the top 1 percent owns around 35 percent of the
total net worth of the United States—and 42 percent of the financial wealth.
(Note that in only one other developed economy does the 1 percent own such a
large share of wealth: Switzerland.)
By restoring
the stock market to where it was back before the crisis, the Fed has not
achieved much of an economic recovery. But it has brilliantly succeeded in
making the rich richer. And their kids.
According to
Credit Suisse, around a third of the world’s thousand or so billionaires in
2012 were American. But of these, just under 30 percent were not self-made—a
significantly higher proportion than for Australia and the United Kingdom. In
other words, today an American billionaire is more likely to have inherited his
or her wealth than a British one is.
This is just
one of many indications of falling social mobility in the U.S. According to
research published by the German Institute for the Study of Labor, 42 percent
of American men born and raised in the bottom fifth of the income distribution
end up staying there as adults, compared with just 30 percent in Britain and 28
percent in Finland. An American’s chance of getting from the bottom fifth to
the top fifth is 1 in 13. For a British or Finnish boy, the odds are better:
more like 1 in 8.