By R Vaidyanathan
Ten years ago, America had Steve Jobs, Bob Hope and Johnny Cash. Now it has no Jobs, no
Hope and no Cash. Or so the joke goes.
Only, it’s no joke. The line is pretty close to
reality in the US. The less said about Europe the better.Both the US and Europe
are in decline. I was asked by a business channel in 2008 about recovery in the
US. I mentioned 40 quarters and after that I was never invited for another
discussion.
Recently, another media person asked me the same
question and I answered 80 quarters. He was shocked since he was told some
“sprouts” of recovery had been seen in the American economy.
It is important to recognise that the dominance of the
West has been there only for last 200-and-odd years. According to Angus
Maddison’s pioneering OECD study, India and China had nearly 50 percent of
global GDP as late as the 1820s. Hence India and China are not
emerging or rising powers. They are retrieving their original position.
In 1990, the share of the G-7 in world GDP (on a
purchasing power parity basis) was 51 percent and that of emerging markets 36
percent. But in 2011, it is the reverse. So the dominant west is a myth.




























