Maybe I’m wrong, but every time I look at
the possibility of a Greek exit right now I see it spiraling out of control and
dragging down the entire global economy. I hear and read the arguments of
why it is controllable and they just don’t seem credible. They either
link a Greek devaluation to other devaluations that have little, if anything in
common. They also seem to ignore human nature and how the markets will
likely respond. I think with planning and time, a Greek exit would be
manageable but right now it would create chaos, first within Europe and then
the globe.
The ECB, EFSF and IMF will take massive
losses
The ECB has €50 billion of GGB bonds still
on their books. Those would not get paid at par by Greece if this is an
amicable breakup, but this is quickly heading to a pots and pans thrown in the
kitchen sort of break-up. Why would Greece pay the ECB if they feel like
the ECB drove them out? Don’t forget, not for a second, that most of the
money Greece now gets goes to pay back the ECB and IMF. The EFSF is
totally out of luck. The ECB might be able to offer something to a post
drachma Greece, but the EFSF offers nothing. The IMF has more negotiating
power, as their direct loans had more protection in the first place and they
are likely to provide additional funds post exit, but quite simply Greece won’t
be able to pay them in full on existing loans.















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