By Charlie Musick
Goat herding is
one of the world's oldest economic professions. It is because goats are
excellent at reproduction, and easy to feed and raise. A female goat will on
average birth around 2 kids per year. Simple math would suggest that if you
start with 2 goats, you can double your herd each year. Thus in 10 years you
will be quite wealthy with over 1000 goats (2^10 = 1024).
But as one can
imagine, it turns out that goat herding is a little more complicated than that.
First, the normal life expectancy of a goat is around 10 years. This
means you will lose about 10% of a herd to old age annually. Additionally,
while goats may birth two kids per year, the viability rate is around 75% such
that each female will only net an average of 1.5. Still, if you do the calculations,
starting with 10 female goats you will have around 1496 female goats after 10
years.
Since raising
goats is a rather simple economic activity, it is easy to model the impact of
taxation on goat farming. Assuming the government comes and takes various
numbers of the new goats (income) each year in goat taxes, one can easily
calculate the impact of the size of the herd, and ultimately how much total
revenue the government would receive over 10 years at various tax rates. It
turns out that the optimum tax rate is in the 20-30% range to maximize total 10
year revenue.