Since the US economy has been in a fantasy world for so long, the collapse will be at freefall speed
By Simon Black
For the last few days, we’ve been having an important discussion about the
magnitude of the economic challenges in the west; if you didn’t read yesterday’s letter, I really
encourage you to do so before proceeding because it’s important to understand
why the west has truly passed the point of no return.
Simply put, the United States and much of Europe are borrowing an
extraordinary amount of money now just to pay interest on the money they’ve
already borrowed. They cannot even self-fund their mandatory entitlement
programs without going into the hole, and their options are limited:
Option 1: Continue borrowing, keep the party going.
As long as the government CAN do this, they WILL do this. Regardless
of their intentions, though, more debt only worsens the situation, creating
higher borrowing costs in the long run, and even more debt. As this happens,
the pool of buyers begins to dry up, especially from overseas.
Option 2: Inflation
The more buyers stop purchasing Treasury securities, the more the Federal
Reserve will mop up the excess liquidity. In doing so, the Fed essentially
conjures up money and loans it to the government.
No matter what the government monkey statistics say, this is inflationary,
plain and simple. The more money they print, the greater the level of inflation
in the long-term. Meanwhile, as foreigners simultaneously reduce their US
dollar holdings, this inflation will become more acutely felt in the US.
Option 3: Austerity
There’s going to come a time when the US government is forced to face its
economic reality and make some incredibly deep cuts that would be felt across
society, from Wall Street and the military industrial complex to project
housing on the other side of the tracks.
Option 4: Default
Eventually, the debt burden is simply going to be too much, and the most
obvious solution will be to default. Politicians will make China out to be the
enemy and they will probably invent a war just to have an excuse to default on
Chinese owned debt. Americans will wave the flag and celebrate defaulting on
their enemies.
Option 5: Economic Cannibalism
In the best traditions of Atlas Shrugged, the government will continue its
persecution of the productive class– professionals, investors, entrepreneurs,
and skilled workers. Existing taxes will rise, new taxes will be created, trade
barriers will be enacted, and a maze of cost prohibitive regulations will be
passed.
The first option (keeping the party going) is what has been happening for
years. Politicians make small concessions to show they’re “serious” about
fiscal discipline, cutting laughably small programs while dumping hundreds of
billions of dollars into wars and entitlement programs.
The worse the debt situation becomes, though, the higher the borrowing
costs become, and the worse the debt situation becomes. It’s not an enviable
position. Existing lenders will continue backing away from the US Treasury
market, giving option 1 a half-life measured in months at best.















