Tehran can continue to enrich uranium at 10,000 working centrifuges
By Paul Gigot
President Obama is hailing a weekend accord that he says has "halted
the progress of the Iranian nuclear program," and we devoutly wish this
were true. The reality is that the agreement in Geneva with five Western nations
takes Iran a giant step closer to becoming a de facto nuclear power.
Start with the fact that this "interim" accord fails to meet the
terms of several United Nations resolutions, which specify no sanctions relief
until Iran suspends all uranium enrichment. Under this deal Iran gets sanctions
relief, but it does not have to give up its centrifuges that enrich uranium,
does not have to stop enriching, does not have to transfer control of its
enrichment stockpiles, and does not have to shut down its plutonium reactor at
Arak.
Mr. Obama's weekend statement glossed over these canyon-sized holes. He
said Iran "cannot install or start up new centrifuges," but it
already has about 10,000 operational centrifuges that it can continue to spin
for at least another six months. Why does Tehran need so many centrifuges if
not to make a bomb at the time it pleases?
The President also said that "Iran has committed to halting certain
levels of enrichment and neutralizing part of its stockpiles." He is
referring to an Iranian pledge to oxidize its 20% enriched uranium stockpile.
But this too is less than reassuring because the process can be reversed and
Iran retains a capability to enrich to 5%, which used to be a threshold we
didn't accept because it can easily be reconverted to 20%.
Mr. Obama said "Iran will halt work at its plutonium reactor,"
but Iran has only promised not to fuel the reactor even as it can continue other
work at the site. That is far from dismantling what is nothing more than a bomb
factory. North Korea made
similar promises in a similar deal with Condoleezza Rice during the
final Bush years, but it quickly returned to bomb-making.
As for inspections, Mr. Obama hailed "extensive access" that will
"allow the international community to verify whether Iran is keeping its
commitments." One problem is that Iran hasn't ratified the additional
protocol to its International Atomic Energy Agency agreement that would allow
inspections on demand at such sites as Parchin, which remain off limits. Iran
can also oust U.N. inspectors at any time, much as North Korea did.
Then there is the sanctions relief, which Mr. Obama says is only
"modest" but which reverses years of U.S. diplomacy to tighten and
enforce them. The message is that the sanctions era is over. The loosening of
the oil regime is especially pernicious, inviting China, India and Germany to
get back to business with Iran.
We are told that all of these issues will be negotiated as part of a
"final" accord in the next six months, but that is not how arms
control works. It is far more likely that this accord will set a precedent for
a series of temporary deals in which the West will gradually ease more
sanctions in return for fewer Iranian concessions.