It seems as though each passing day brings yet another piece of bad
economic news coming out of Venezuela. For months, I have been tracking the
decline of Venezuela’s economy and its currency, the bolivar. As if a
collapsing currency, and the resulting inflation and empty shelves weren’t bad
enough, Venezuela is now struggling with massive blackouts. Forget the Whig
interpretation of history; Venezuela supports the schoolboys’ interpretation:
“it’s just one damn thing after another.”
Venezuela’s downward economic spiral began in earnest when Hugo Chavez
imposed his “unique” brand of socialism on Venezuela. For years, the country
has sustained a massive social spending program, combined with costly price and
labor-market controls, as well as an aggressive foreign aid strategy. This
fiscal house of cards has been kept afloat—barely—by oil revenues.
But, as the price tag of the regime has grown, the country has dipped more
and more into the coffers of its state-owned oil company, PDVSA, and
(increasingly) relied on the country’s central bank to fill the fiscal gap.
This has resulted in a steady decline in the bolivar’s value — a decline that
only accelerated as news of Chavez’s failing health began to emerge.
Hugo Chavez died on March 5, 2013 — sending shockwaves through the
Venezuelan economy. Not surprisingly, in the months since his hand-picked
successor, Nicolas Maduro, took the reins as Venezuela’s new president, the
Venezuelan house of cards has begun to collapse.
The black market exchange rate between the bolivar (VEF) and the U.S.
dollar (USD) tells the tale. Indeed, the bolivar has lost 64.5% of its value on
the black market since Chavez’s death.
This, in turn, has brought about very high inflation in Venezuela. At
present, the implied annual inflation rate is actually in the triple digits,
coming in at a whopping 297%.