We are now in a situation that looks like a dead end for the paper money system
by Philipp Bagus
A paper currency system contains the seeds of its own
destruction. The temptation for the monopolist money producer to increase the
money supply is almost irresistible. In such a system with a constantly
increasing money supply and, as a consequence, constantly increasing prices, it
does not make much sense to save in cash to purchase assets later. A better
strategy, given this senario, is to go into debt to purchase assets and pay
back the debts later with a devalued currency. Moreover, it makes sense to purchase
assets that can later be pledged as collateral to obtain further bank loans. A
paper money system leads to excessive debt.
This is especially true of players that can expect
that they will be bailed out with newly produced money such as big businesses,
banks, and the government.
We are now in a situation that looks like a dead end
for the paper money system. After the last cycle, governments have bailed out
malinvestments in the private sector and boosted their public welfare spending.
Deficits and debts skyrocketed. Central banks printed money to buy public debts
(or accept them as collateral in loans to the banking system) in unprecedented
amounts. Interest rates were cut close to zero. Deficits remain large. No
substantial real growth is in sight. At the same time banking systems and other
financial players sit on large piles of public debt. A public default would
immediately trigger the bankruptcy of the banking sector. Raising interest
rates to more realistic levels or selling
the assets purchased by the central bank would put
into jeopardy the solvency of the banking sector, highly indebted companies,
and the government. It looks like even the slowing down of money printing (now
called “QE tapering”) could trigger a bankruptcy spiral. A drastic reduction of
government spending and deficits does not seem very likely either, given the
incentives for politicians in democracies.
So will money printing be a constant with interest
rates close to zero until people lose their confidence in the paper currencies?
Can the paper money system be maintained or will we necessarily get a
hyperinflation sooner or later?
There are at least seven possibilities:
1. Inflate. Governments
and central banks can simply proceed on the path of inflation and print all the
money necessary to bail out the banking system, governments, and other
over-indebted agents. This will further increase moral hazard. This option
ultimately leads into hyperinflation, thereby eradicating debts. Debtors
profit, savers lose. The paper wealth that people have saved over their life
time will not be able to assure such a high standard of living as envisioned.
2. Default on Entitlements.
Governments can improve their financial positions by simply not fulfilling
their promises. Governments may, for instance, drastically cut public pensions,
social security and unemployment benefits to eliminate deficits and pay down
accumulated debts. Many entitlements, that people have planned upon, will prove
to be worthless.
3. Repudiate Debt.
Governments can also default outright on their debts. This leads to losses for
banks and insurance companies that have invested the savings of their clients
in government bonds. The people see the value of their mutual funds, investment
funds, and insurance plummet thereby revealing the already-occurred losses. The
default of the government could lead to the collapse of the banking system. The
bankruptcy spiral of overindebted agents would be an economic Armageddon.
Therefore, politicians until now have done everything to prevent this option
from happening.