By Tyler Durden
In four months the debate over
America's Fiscal cliff will come to a crescendo, and if Goldman is correct (and in this case it likely is), it will probably be
resolved in some sort of compromise, but not before the market swoons in a
replica of the August 2011 pre- and post-debt ceiling fiasco: after all
politicians only act when they (and their more influential, read richer, voters
and lobbyists) see one or two 0's in their 401(k)s get chopped off. But while
the Fiscal cliff is unlikely to be a key point of contention far past December,
another cliff is only starting to be appreciated, let alone priced in: America's
Demographic cliff, which in a decade or two will put Japan's ongoing
demographic crunch to shame, and with barely 2 US workers for every
retired person in 2035, we can see why both presidential candidates are
doing their darnedest to skirt around the key issue that is at stake not only
now, be every day hence.
Sadly, the market which due to
central-planner meddling, has long lost its discounting capabilities,
and is now merely a reactive mechanism, will ignore this biggest
threat to the US financial system until it is far too late. After all it is the
unsustainability of America's $100+ trillion in underfunded welfare liabilities
that is the biggest danger to preserving the American way of life, and will be
the sticking point in the presidential election in 80 days. However, don't
expect either candidate to have a resolution to the demographic catastrophe
into which America is headed for one simple reason. There is none.

























