Stigende renter?
Hvad er det? Hjælp!
If we're not
completely mistaken, then the above is Danish for: “Rising interest rates?
What's that? Help!” The recent bond market swoon has been a global
phenomenon, and it has afforded highly indebted consumers in Scandinavian
countries a brief glimpse of what could be a melancholic future in a place
called 'debt slave hell'.
“Danish consumers, who owe banks more than three times their disposable incomes, are about to find out how sustainable that debt load is as interest rates rise.
Signals from the
U.S. Federal Reserve that it’s preparing to scale back monetary stimulus have
already sent mortgage costs higher as yields rise across global bond
markets. The Nykredit Index of Denmark’s most traded
mortgage bonds sank this week to its lowest in more than four months after
investors sold assets once coveted for their haven status.
Though the
government and central bank have long argued Denmark’s private debt burden is
backed by some of the world’s biggest pension savings, record consumer
borrowing has prompted warnings from the European Commission and the
International Monetary Fund. The Systemic Risk Board in Copenhagen said this
week it will investigate private debt growth in response to international
concerns.
“We have decided to initiate an analysis to see if there is a risk to the systemic stability,” central bank Governor Lars Rohde, who heads the board, said in an interview. Though recent studies suggest a “significant level of robustness,” the board has “noted that others outside the country have a different understanding.” (emphasis added)
Let's see:
Denmark's consumers have debt amounting to more than 300% of their income (that
sounds like a world record…even Carneyfied Canada is positively thrifty by
comparison). Some people say that this debt load just mightbecome
a problem (not only for said consumers, but also for their creditors). The
solution: we'll let a committee look into it. In that case, obviously nothing
can possibly go wrong. Dodged a bullet there!
In Denmark it's
Different …
Let us take a look
at what arguments are forwarded in terms of 'it's different in Denmark'- as
that is indeed the argument made by the central bank.
“Mortgage holders in Denmark relied on the government’s stable AAA credit grade to finance debt at record-low rates during the fiscal crisis in Europe. While the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development estimates Danish households owed 310 percent of disposable incomes in 2010, government debt is less than half the euro-zone average at only 45 percent of gross domestic product this year, the European Commission estimates. [….]
The yield on
Denmark’s benchmark 10-year government bond soared to 1.96 percent on Monday,
its highest since March last year. The yield on the Nykredit Realkredit A/S 3.5
percent mortgage bond due October 2044 soared 10 basis points on Monday to 3.72
percent, according to generic price data compiled by Bloomberg. That yield was
as low as 3.33 percent last month.