“All within the state, nothing outside the state, nothing against the state. “-Benito Mussolini
By Mark Grant
When the Defendants are also the Judge and Jury
Here is a prescription for disaster. Here is an opiate
that, once seen, should be avoided at any and all costs because the hand is a
losing one far past any combination of cards on the Blackjack table. Yet, this
is exactly what Europe is proscribing for owners of unsecured bank debt on the
Continent. The importance of Friday’s announcement was not that unsecured
bank debt owners were to take losses if some bank foundered but just who would
be deciding what losses were to be taken.
Yes, it is true, investors for the
last three years had been assured and re-assured that the sovereign nation
where the bank was domiciled would be back-stopping any bank bonds or that the
European Union itself would ring fence all bond holders so that the
announcement was in direct contention to what we had all been told to get us to
support European bank debt. Europe had claimed responsibility and now they have
withdrawn it and this reason alone is enough to push yields for European bank
bonds far wider than where they are currently as the charade of one more
contingent liability has been officially ended. I assert, just for this
reversal in position, that the yields of all unsecured bank bonds on the
Continent will gap out from their current levels as what we were told is not what
we are to get any longer. The new EU bank plan normalizes the losses to put
them on the same plain with the American banks but the second part of the story
is where disaster lies and I mean unmitigated disaster.