A Forecast of Things to Come
by Patrick J.
Buchanan
“Apart from
political maps of mankind, there are natural maps of mankind. ... One of the
first laws of political stability is to draw your political boundaries along
the lines of the natural map of mankind.”
So wrote H.G.
Wells in What Is Coming: A Forecast of Things to Come After the War in
the year of Verdun and the Somme Offensive.In redrawing the
map of Europe, however, the statesmen of Versailles ignored Wells and parceled
out Austrians, Hungarians, Germans and other nationalities to alien lands to
divide, punish and weaken the defeated peoples.
So doing they set
the table for a second world war.
The Middle East
was sliced up along lines set down in the secret Sykes-Picot agreement. But
with the Islamic awakening and Arab Spring toppling regimes, the natural map of
the Middle East seems now to be asserting itself.
Sunni and Shia
align with Sunni and Shia, as Protestants and Catholics did in 17th-century
Europe. Ethiopia and Sudan split. Mali and Nigeria may be next. While world
attention is focused on Aleppo and when Bashar Assad might fall, Syria itself
may be about to disintegrate.
In Syria’s
northeast, a Kurdish minority of 2 to 3 million with ethnic ties to Iraqi
Kurdistan and 15 million Kurds in Turkey seems to be dissolving its ties to
Damascus. A Kurdish nation carved out of Syria, Iraq, Turkey and Iran would appear
to be a casus belli for all four nations. Yet in any
natural map of the world, there would be a Kurdistan.
The Sunni
four-fifths of the Syrian population seems fated to rise and the Muslim
Brotherhood to rule, as happened in Egypt. The fall of Assad and his Shia
Alawite minority would be celebrated by the Sunni across the border in Iraq’s
Anbar province, who would then have a powerful new ally in any campaign to
recapture Sunni lands lost to Iraqi Shia.
With its recent
murderous attacks inside Iraq, al-Qaida seems to be instigating a new
Sunni-Shia war to tear Iraq apart.
The fall of the
Alawites in Damascus would end the dream of a Shia crescent—Iran, Iraq, Syria
and Hezbollah—leave Hezbollah isolated, and conceivably lead to a renewal of
Lebanon’s sectarian and civil war.